We are through five weeks of the regular season, and the San Francisco 49ers are fourth in the NFL in snap count percentage for rookies. The first-year players were always going to be relied on to make
instant contributions. Each of them has, in their own way, been a big part of why the 49ers sit atop the NFC West. Let’s get into the rookie report card.
Mykel Williams
Mykel Williams received Arik Armstead comps for the exact way that he’s played through five weeks. Williams doesn’t have a sack, has one game where he had more than one pressure, but has been the force the 49ers need along the defensive line.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the rushing EPA per 60 plays is -13 with Williams on the field compared to -2 with him off. That’s a drastic difference, and a sign that Mykel’s best football is yet to come. Fred Warner has made more plays and more plays closer to the line of scrimmage with Williams on the field. Warner’s average depth of tackle is nearly one yard lower (0.8 yards) with Williams on the field.
There are a few plays in a game where Williams overwhelms whoever he’s going against, usually a guard, and is responsible for one of his teammates making a tackle for loss. Williams pressured Matthew Stafford once in Week 5, which should have resulted in an interception. He’s close. I’d say Williams is exactly who the 49ers had hoped for him to be through five games.
Alfred Collins
Collins played a season high in snaps last Thursday at 37. He saved the day for the 49ers with a forced fumble and recovery. Like Williams, Collins was never going to be the type of player to stuff the stat sheet. He does the dirty work, like taking on double-team blocks so the linebackers behind him can run freely.
And like Williams, the 49ers are worse when Collins isn’t on the field. There’s a -.09 difference in rushing EPA and -0.05 in total EPA per play overall with Collins on the field. I thought it was telling on the final play of Week 5 that Kyle Shanahan was willing to call a timeout to put the 330+ pounder in the lineup. It made a difference, as the Rams ran to Collins’ side, the running back had to bounce his run one gap to the right, and multiple defenders were there to meet him.
Collins was thought of as a run defender, but he’s had a pressure in three of the five games. If San Francisco can get Collins on the field for 57 percent of the snaps as they did in Week 5, they’ll be in good shape. Teams are struggling to run the ball when he’s on the field, and it generally leads to longer down and distances on passing downs.
Collins is right on schedule.
Nick Martin
Martin has been a healthy scratch every week. When asked last week why Martin isn’t playing, Robert Saleh said, “He’s going to be fine. He needs reps, but he’s got to earn those reps. Right now, the vets are ahead.” Martin needs to “dominate” special teams before he earns defensive reps.
If Martin is playing, that means something happened to Dee Winters. The way the starting linebackers are playing, there’s no need for Martin to see the field, and that’s OK.
Upton Stout
Stout is off an outing where he allowed a passer rating of 116.1 on eight targets. He allowed seven receptions for 95 yards, and neither of those was a tight-window throw. Breaking: The Rams have a potent offense and took advantage of a rookie in the secondary. More to come at 11.
Stout is dealing with an ankle injury, and while Chase Lucas made a nice play on fourth down, Stout plays that way against the run on every down. Saleh has to be head over heels with the effort Stout plays with.
There are still some rookie faults. Stout has consistently played with poor eye discipline through five games. It’s why he’s found himself out of position when the ball is headed his way.
Painting the picture like Stout has been a failure to date is inaccurate. Before the 95 yards allowed against the Rams, Stout had allowed 93 yards in coverage all season. He had the game-saving pass breakup against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 and a sack in Week 2. Stout has made plenty of positive impressions during the first five games.
CJ West
West missed a game after needing surgery on his thumb, but returned and played double the amount of snaps from any of the three previous games. West has had a pair of pressures in the past two games. Against the Cardinals, West had two run stops. That’s what the 49ers drafted West and the rest of these rookies to do: Stop the run.
There’s a reason West saw a spike in snaps this past week, outside of the injuries. The 49ers have an EPA per play of -0.18 when West is on the field, compared to 0.04. Negatives are better when we’re talking about defense. West doesn’t need to be DeForest Buckner when he’s on the field. The Niners need their Day 3 rookie to maintain the production of the starters, which West has.
Kalia Davis will miss at least one more game, which means Collins and West must continue to produce on the road.
Jordan Watkins
Watkins has yet to play a regular-season game after a high-ankle sprain, then suffered a setback with a calf injury. There’s a role for Watkins once he’s healthy.
Skyy Moore had a jet sweep against the Rams. Marquez Valdes-Scantling played 46 snaps. Malik Turner played six offensive snaps after Moore lined up incorrectly and never saw the field again. Even with Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings returning, Watkins can be the jet sweep player or wideout that runs off coverage to open up routes underneath. But he has to get healthy first.
Jordan James
James’ preseason injury put him behind the 8-ball. Trading for a veteran like Brian Robinson didn’t help James’ stock, either. He has yet to play a regular-season snap, and that is unlikely to change as long as Christian McCaffrey remains healthy this season.
Marques Sigle
If Sigle ends up being “benched” for Malik Mustapha, I’d say he earned a thumbs up for his work through five games. Sigle ran a 4.37 40-yard dash, and that speed has allowed the 49ers to play two safeties deep pre-snap, but allow Sigle to fit the run post-snap. He’s been excellent in that regard. In fact, only five players have more run stops at safety in the NFL than Sigle.
Sigle’s speed also allows Saleh to line up his safeties close to the line of scrimmage, trusting that they’ll be able to get back in time to prevent any deep plays. San Francisco is among the league leaders in explosive play rate allowed, despite lining up their safeties at the fourth-closest depth from the line of scrimmage.
Sigle does need to clean up his tackling. He has four missed tackles in five games. In coverage, Sigle has been in position almost every time. Unfortunately, playing the ball in the air has been a chore for the rookie. The coverage numbers don’t look great. Sigle has been targeted 24 times, has allowed 20 receptions, and more than a handful of those have been over 15 yards.
That being said, the athleticism is obvious; there were always going to be bumps along the way when playing a fifth-rounder, and Sigle being this close on numerous occasions would make it difficult to pull the rookie from the starting lineup. If this is the end for Sigle, it was a job well done in a difficult situation.
Connor Colby
We will skip Kurtis Rourke and Junior Bergen and talk about another player who was thrown to the wolves.
Colby nearly pitched a shutout against the Saints. The next week against the Cardinals, Colby, from a charting standpoint, had one of the worst games imaginable for an offensive lineman. He’s been marginally better since, but it’s been a rough three-game stretch for the rookie. Colby does not look like he’s ready to play in the NFL from a strength perspective. He’s easily ragdolled or walked back by the opposing defensive line. As a run defender, he’s either a step late or is playing on the wrong side of the line of scrimmage. Colby has the fifth-highest blown block rate among all offensive linemen in the NFL at 6.4 percent.
Ben Bartch was practicing off to the side on Monday. San Francisco was able to win with Colby in the lineup, but that won’t be the case against the better defenses they’ll run into. This offense needs Bartch healthy to have a chance at functioning to its full capacity. Colby held down the fort and might have to for another game or two, but there’s a reason he was taken in the seventh round.
