Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 20 at 4:15 p.m. ET
- Network: SEC Network
- Location: Davis Wade Stadium — Starkville, MS
- Spread: Mississippi State (-21.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
Do you hear that sound? The cowbells are ringing in full force again in recognition of Mississippi State’s accomplished 3-0 start — already exceeding its win total from the 2024 campaign. The Bulldogs already earned a ranked win and witnessed a field storm with a goal post robbery in a promising start to Jeff Lebby’s second year.
They’ve exorcised some demons from 2024 but not all. The Mid-American Conference wrecked the Bulldogs last September as Toledo silenced the cowbell choir in a 41-17 decision.
Northern Illinois, fresh off a bye week, looks to do the same. Thomas Hammock’s Huskies eye a signature “Boneyard Win” and the program’s first SEC victory since knocking off Alabama in 2003.
Northern Illinois Huskies outlook
Northern Illinois (1-1, 0-0 MAC) received an extended bye week after last suiting up Friday night in Week 2. The Huskies are at 1-1 after facing contrasting opponents in FCS Holy Cross and Maryland. Yet both games were extremely similar, as NIU thrives off playing a certain style.
The Huskies often find themselves in low-scoring, more sluggish rock fights where every point is at a premium. NIU hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in six consecutive contests dating back to 2024. But at the same time, Northern Illinois never broke 30 in those six games and scored under 20 three times in that span.
Offensively, the Huskies’ goal is to pound the rock, shorten the game, and push the sticks on long, methodical possessions. Against Maryland, NIU unleashed a heavy dose of Chavon Wright and Telly Johnson Jr. in the backfield. Wright totaled 90 yards on 27 attempts while Johnson racked up 86 — fueled by a 74-yard breakaway run for the team’s lone touchdown. Those backs should account for the majority of production Saturday, and when the chips are on the table on fourth and short, NIU trusts them greatly. The Huskies converted 4-of-6 fourth downs last outing, only failing on a fake punt and a desperation attempt after the game was already decided.
In order for losses to convert to wins, Northern Illinois must seek more from the aerial attack. The Huskies have exactly 200 passing yards through two games and need to find methods of moving the chains when faced with third-and-long. Josh Holst, the 2024 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl MVP, remains the starter and he’ll look to ignite a new group of receivers, currently led by Division II transfer DeAree Rogers (10 receptions for 89 yards).
Defense remains the calling card of the Huskies, just like last year when it ranked 14th in fewest opponent points per game. NIU succeeds in keeping quarterbacks inefficient, holding them to a season completion rate of 55.4 percent. Additionally, the group provides a great counter to the run game, stifling foes to 74 yards per game to rank 14th nationally.
Linebackers Quinn Urwiler and Filip Maciorowski have done a great job of plugging gaps against the run. Other standouts in the unit include defensive end Jalonnie Williams who scooped up a critical fumble vs. Maryland and strong safety Muhammed Jammeh who ranks second in tackles and has the lone interception for the Huskies in 2025.
Mississippi State Bulldogs outlook
Mississippi State (3-0, 0-0 SEC) concludes a successful non-conference slate in front of the cowbell crowd. Ever since entering Week 1 halftime tied 10-10 with Southern Miss, the Bulldogs have shed off their recent struggles and rebranded themselves to the team they were throughout the 2010s.
The win over Arizona State invoked a new confidence into Jeff Lebby’s squad which looks to, with a win, invade the rankings for the first time in three years. So far the Bulldogs have been thriving off a vastly improved defense which checks in at 23rd nationally in scoring defense (12.3 points allowed per game) and 15th in passing defense.
Mississippi State’s defense hosted a 60-minute masterclass against Arizona State’s passing attack, holding Sam Leavitt to 82 passing yards and two interceptions on a 10-of-22 showing. Turnover production has been a significant part of the Bulldogs’ season to date. With six takeaways, Mississippi State fields a +4 in turnover margin which is tied for 16th nationally.
It’s been a very balanced effort by the Bulldogs. Ten different defenders featured between 11 and 18 tackles, and there are almost always two to three hats on the ball on a given stop. Inside linebacker Nic Mitchell and nickel Isaac Smith lead the charge with 18 tackles apiece, but the two only combine for one solo tackle — showing the concertedness of this defense.
Offensively, Mississippi State returns Blake Shapen as the starting quarterback. The former 2021 Big 12 champion at Baylor couldn’t stay healthy last year, but his availability has bolstered the offense to another level. Highlighted by a 279-yard, 3-touchdown performance at Arizona State, Shapen boasts a 68.8 completion percentage with six touchdowns to two interceptions.
The Bulldogs aren’t particularly dominant at either aspect on offense, but they wield a very balanced unit that hasn’t sputtered in the red zone this season — scoring seven touchdowns and three field goals on 10 attempts. Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth lead a viable running back tandem with 297 combined rushing yards, while Brenen Thompson and Anthony Evans III shine at wide receiver with a collective 488 receiving yards and five touchdowns. A transfer-heavy offensive line remains a work in progress, and Mississippi State hopes that unit can show improvement against the Huskies’ front Saturday evening.
Prediction
When Northern Illinois is involved, you can expect a general lack of points whether it’s a future National Championship participant like 2024 Notre Dame or an FCS opponent like Holy Cross. NIU marches to its own tune and forces the opposition to march to it as well.
Mississippi State presents a balanced offense and offers some differences to what Northern Illinois faced two weeks ago at Maryland. Lebby offenses utilize a veer-and-shoot style which relies on quick reads and incorporates verticality into the passing game. NIU may win some matchups in the run game, but Bulldogs’ receiver Brenen Thompson will be the x-factor. His explosive playmaking guided Mississippi State to a win over the defending Big 12 champion and can be an effective counter to NIU if Bulldogs’ line gives routes time to develop.
Mississippi State ends its 1-game skid vs. the MAC.
Prediction: Mississippi State 27, Northern Illinois 10
