Yesterday, I wrote a piece detailing the Buffalo Bills defensive struggles in the first half compared to the second half in 2025. It’s distinctly a troubling trend Jim Leonhard and Co. have to fix in 2026 and beyond.
Afterward, it felt sensible to check the other side of the ball.
I ran the same numbers on the Bills offense from 2025, and while the unit did improve in the second half in many statistical categories, the first-half figures, almost universally across the board, were still really damn
good.
So trying to draw any type of conclusion from those findings were a nonstarter, as expected.
But I did get a Twitter reply to that defensive research article that centered around this user’s thought that the defense needed to be better… because — and I’m paraphrasing — if Josh Allen needs to score a TD on the final possession, that wouldn’t happen.
That was a very specific — yet undoubtedly very critical — scenario.
Let’s dive on this topic but start generally.
Since 2020, these are Allen’s fourth-quarter (and overtime) statistics when trailing by eight or fewer points (in regular and postseason games):
The 93.4 passer rating with that criteria — fourth quarter, trailing by one score — ranks eight in that time frame among quarterbacks with 200-plus attempts. Allen ranks behind Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Geno Smith, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins.
Allen’s 25 total touchdowns rank 2nd, only to — believe it or not — Cousins, who has 25 passing touchdowns and one rushing score in that scenario.
From my memory alone, I can absolutely remember failed late-game drives for Allen and Co., so this next discovery did come as somewhat of a surprise.
From a pure drive perspective — so looking at the entire offensive performance — in that exact same scenario (fourth quarter or overtime, down eight or fewer points), the Bills have the NFL’s third-best percentage of drives that have ended in a touchdown at 26.8%. They’ve trailed only the Buccaneers and Commanders.
Altogether, NFL offenses have scored a touchdown on 21.2% of those drives.
That does clearly indicate it’s rather difficult to score touchdowns in those scenarios, and the Bills have one of the league’s best touchdown percentages since 2020 under those circumstances. In case you were wondering, they’re eighth in field goal percentage, but we’re focused on touchdowns here, based on the snarky Twitter response.
If we reduce to the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime — when the drive begin, under the same point-margin conditions — the Bills are fourth in the NFL in touchdown rate at 25%.
If we reduce to the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime — when the drive begin, under the same point-margin conditions — the Bills are ninth with a 21.9% touchdown rate on 32 such drives. Of course, the volatility expands as the sample shrinks with these tighter time constraints. For example, if the Bills had scored one more touchdown in this final five minute sample, they would’ve jumped to 25% and into a tied for sixth with the Lions. One fewer touchdown, they would’ve plummeted to 18.75% and into 18th.
One has to reduce to drives that began in the final three minutes to get to the assertion of the mention I received on Twitter. In that specific scenario, the Bills only have one touchdown (!) on 17 drives. That 5.9% ranks 30th in the NFL. That’s a super granular area in which Buffalo’s offense has not been good in the Allen era, and needs to be better. I’m assuming he’d admit that too.
Otherwise, the Bills have been one of the NFL’s most consistent late-game performing offenses in football.
