There have been murmurs for a few years now that the NBA has been considering an expansion from the current 30 teams to 32 teams.
While nothing has been confirmed yet, Shams Charania of ESPN reported on Monday morning that the league has decided to hold a vote at the Board of Governors meetings later this month to explore those ideas once again. If the proposal goes through, Las Vegas and Seattle would target the 2028-29 season as their inaugural campaign.
Keith Smith of Spotrac also reported that potential rules could include teams being allowed to protect up to eight players, with none of them being allowed to be players who are restricted free agents or players on expiring contracts. Teams must also expose at least one player, and teams may not lose more than one player in an expansion draft.
So with all of that being said, what exactly could this mean for the Knicks? Well, as it pertains to the expansion draft, it’s difficult to say as there’s really no way to predict what the Knicks’ roster and contracts look like heading into the 2028 off-season. Between now and then, trades are bound to happen, and despite the Knicks’ unpredictable drafting patterns and lack of picks, they will have new faces by then.
The only player right now that is signed through the 2028-2029 season is, for better or for worse, Mikal Bridges. Of note, though, OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson have player options that they’ll very likely opt in to. Assuming Bridges isn’t shipped off by then, it’s safe to assume that those three will be very safe bets to be protected by the team.
Then there’s Karl-Anthony Towns, who will be one year removed from his $61 million player option in 2027. If, and I’d say it’s a relatively big if, he’s still a Knick, then chances are, it’s because the Knicks have won a championship, or gotten incredibly close to doing so. And in that case, chances are he’s also protected. That brings the number up to four.
Then you have Josh Hart, who, regardless of what the fans want or think, will likely be a Knick until Brunson is no longer a Knick. And in the chance that he wears a different jersey, you can bet it won’t be because they didn’t protect him in an expansion draft. That’s now five. Here is where it starts to get a bit tricky.
If you go up and down the roster right now, the three guys you want to be a Knick for as long as possible have to be Mitchell Robinson, Deuce McBride, and Mohamed Diawara. All three of those guys are going to be free agents this upcoming summer. New York, which has become one of the most cap-aware and salary-savvy front offices in the league, has surely been planning on this and has done whatever it can to give itself the best shot at retaining all three. If they can manage to do so, the question then becomes, how long will they be signed for?
If they are all signed for three or more years, then they should round out the last three to be protected. But if, for one reason or another, they aren’t a Knick by then, the Knicks are kind of out of players they need to keep. Sure, one of their picks in the late first-round or second-round could surprise us as Diawara has. Tyler Kolek, Ariel Hukporti, and Pacome Dadiet have all shown some flashes. And, given that there will be trades between now and then, whatever player the Knicks bring in may make that list.
But regardless of what happens, the one good thing about having a team with depth without being overly deep is that you have guys you aren’t necessarily sad to lose for free. Think of a team like the Thunder right now. If they were to only protect eight guys, their conversations and choices would be much more difficult than the ones the Knicks will likely have to make.
The other piece of the puzzle, were an expansion to be agreed on, is the potential changes to the division. The NBA could get rid of divisions altogether. But they could also go through with a realignment. With the Grizzlies or Timberwolves rumored to be the ones entering the Eastern Conference, we could see a situation in which Memphis joins the Southeast Division, or one in which Minnesota joins the Central Division. If that happens, instead of having the current three divisions of five teams, we could just have four divisions of four teams in both conferences.
The Knicks could then see a world in which the Sixers get removed from their division as they head a bit south to a division with, say, the Wizards, Cavaliers, and Pacers. Or a scenario in which the Raptors head out west and join the Bucks, Pistons, and Bulls in a division. Either way, if the league decides to stick with divisions, scheduling may change a bit. But overall, given the Knicks’ roster and contract situation, the proposed expansion and rules don’t seem like they’ll matter much to New York as things currently stand. Obviously, with plenty of time between now and then, roster changes, additional rule proposals, and or scheduling updates could have a larger impact on the Knicks and other teams as well.
