The NFL regular season is back! After months of waiting, football returns to our televisions Wednesday evening.
Before the games kick off, I wanted to predict the record and what level of team we have in the Kansas City Chiefs this season. We’re following the optimistic perspective from Rocky Magana’s 12-5 prediction last week.
Let’s get started with Week 1 against the Denver Broncos.
Week 1: vs. Broncos
I’m starting the season with a loss. I don’t love the Chiefs-Broncos matchup. The Broncos have a secondary that can
blanket Kansas City’s pass catchers, and one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the NFL. On top of this, left tackle Josh Simmons might not play. Without Simmons, I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to pass protect long enough for receivers to get open. I expect the defense to keep the score close, but don’t trust the offense.
Verdict: Loss
Week 2: vs. Indianapolis Colts
The good news for the Chiefs is if Simmons misses some time, the next three opponents don’t have fierce pass rushes. The Chiefs offense should look much better in this game. The Colts offense isn’t as strong this year without Michael Pittman and Braden Smith. With Daniel Jones off an injury as well, the Chiefs bounce back.
Verdict: Win
Week 3: at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. This should be an easy win for the Chiefs.
Verdict: Win
Week 4: at Las Vegas Raiders
Maxx Crosby could give us some problems, but it appears Kirk Cousins will be starting for the Raiders in this game. I expect the Chiefs pass rush to dominate against a shaky offensive line and an old, immobile quarterback. We go into the bye 3-1.
Verdict: Win
Week 5: Bye Week
3-1 Record!
Week 6: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
At this point, the hope is Simmons will be back. I expect the Chiefs to split their series with the Chargers this year. I think the Chargers will start the season stronger as they have a new offensive scheme with Mike McDaniel that won’t have much tape on them yet. I do think they will slow down as time goes on, but this is still early enough in the season for them to give us problems.
Verdict: Loss
Week 7: at Seattle Seahawks
The Chiefs defense will keep this game close, but I don’t trust our offense against Mike McDonald. Seattle is best at defending the middle of the field and limiting the open windows the Chiefs want to attack. They will make the Chiefs throw outside the numbers against our receivers, and I don’t trust the Chiefs to hit enough throws to move the ball. This is a tough matchup for this roster.
Verdict: Loss
Week 8: at Broncos
As I mentioned, I just think Denver is a bad matchup for us. For two years, the Broncos secondary has smothered the Chiefs. Even with Simmons back, their pass rush and blitzing can still get home. The Broncos offense should be better with Jaylen Waddle at wide receiver. The Chiefs need to make upgrades to their roster to match up with Denver better.
Verdict: Loss
Week 9: vs New York Jets
The previous three games are a brutal way to come out of the bye, but fortunately, the next three should be wins. The Jets are also one of the worst teams in the NFL, and I expect the Chiefs to play desperate in this spot. I would predict a Chiefs blowout in this game.
Verdict: Win
Week 10: at Atlanta Falcons
I expect the Chiefs to keep that positive momentum into Atlanta. The Falcons quarterback situation is pretty dire, and their pass rush is one of the worst in the NFL. These games should give the Chiefs a chance to catch an offensive rhythm.
Verdict: Win
Week 11: vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals’ skill-position talent is exciting, and they have a young defense. Of these three easier games, I think this one will be the most competitive. But the Chiefs still have much more talent than the Cardinals. The Chiefs’ defense chokes out whoever plays quarterback for the Cardinals in this game.
Verdict: Win
Week 12: at Buffalo Bills
After three easier games, the schedule gets tough again with Buffalo on a short week. Joe Brady is a different coach, but the Bills have consistently beaten the Chiefs in the regular season. I expect the Chiefs’ defense to play well this year, but I think the Bills run the ball well in this game, and I think the Chiefs lose a close game late.
Verdict: Loss
Week 13: at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have one of the most loaded rosters in recent NFL years. They have a chance to have top-3 units on both sides of the ball. I could see the Chiefs keeping it close with their game plan, but the Rams’ defense, with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald, closes it out.
Verdict: Loss
Week 14: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After two tough losses, I think the Chiefs bounce back in a shootout in Cincinnati. The Chiefs’ run game takes off here for the rest of the year. The Bengals also score points, but Kansas City’s young defenders make big plays late to close out the win.
Verdict: Win
Week 15: vs. New England Patriots
This was a tough one for me to pick, but I ended up having this as a loss. The Patriots secondary is very good in man coverage and could stifle our passing game. Drake Maye is really good and can make aggressive throws to beat our defense. This is a close game that goes down to the wire that New England pulls out.
Verdict: Loss
Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco has so many injured players already, and they’re an old team. I don’t expect them to play well this late into the season. The Chiefs roll in this game.
Verdict: Win
Week 17: at Chargers
By this point, I expect the Chargers to show more cracks, and the Chiefs will be peaking. The Chiefs go into Los Angeles and win by double digits as they dominate the Chargers’ shaky interior offensive line and run the ball well.
Verdict: Win
Week 18: vs. Raiders
Rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza will probably be playing by then, but with the Chiefs at 10-7 and likely needing this win for their playoff hopes, they come out focused and end the game early.
Verdict: Win
Bottom Line
Overall, I had the Chiefs at 10-7.
The light early schedule besides Denver should give them a chance to start 3-1. Their stretch after the bye week and after Arizona is brutal, but Kansas City does have lighter stretches as well. By December, I expect them to be playing their best football as the run game develops and the defense improves over time.
Teams that can play man coverage well will be a tough matchup for us, which caps the Chiefs’ record for me, but I think they’ll be in the mix to make the playoffs.
