The New England Patriots have a successful overall history against their Week 3 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, going 12-3 in the first 15 meetings of the series means little for game No. 16, as does the Jaguars having actually won the most recent game back in 2024.
Both clubs have undergone massive transformations since then, after all, and are still looking to find their rhythm this season. Like New England, Jacksonville also started the year with one win and one loss. The question
now becomes who among them will be able to improve to 2-1 on the year. For the oddsmakers, the home team Jaguars are favored to do so.
However, as our head-to-head comparison shows, this could end up being a close contest that could go either way.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Jaguars pass defense: Drake Maye and company have yet to perform on their 2025 level, but there were some positive glimpses during last week’s win over the Steelers. But while moving the ball has not necessarily been an issue, but doing so consistently and not giving it away has been; five pass-game turnovers in the first two games is simply not a winning recipe. Now going against a blitz-heavy Jaguars defense that also has a disruptive edge rush, rangy linebackers, and that performed very well in coverage in a loss to Denver last week, New England needs to be a lot sharper to put up points. The margin of error projects to be a bit bigger compared to the matchups they faced in Weeks 1 and 2, but until New England shows it can address its issues there are questions. | Edge: Jaguars
Patriots pass defense vs. Jaguars pass offense: Unlike the Seahawks or Steelers, the Jaguars do not have that clear-cut high-end No. 1 wide receiver in their ranks. Parker Washington has a solid case and has looked the part so far this season, but a secondary that could be with all its starters despite some recent injury questions should still be able to limit him and the rest of the unit. Obviously, quarterback Trevor Lawrence is one of the best pure passers the team has faced in the Mike Vrabel era, but good coverage, aggressive pressure calls and an interior pass rush capable of making life tough on Jacksonville’s O-line could end up tipping the scales in the visitors’s favor. | Edge: Patriots
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Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Jaguars run defense: New England’s run game still struggled with consistency even after getting TreVeyon Henderson back from injury last week. That said, the second-year man provides rare home-run ability to complement Rhamondre Stevenson — who ran hard as well last week against the Steelers, even though he lost a fumble on a short reception early in the game. If both perform to their potential and are able to build on last week’s positives, New England should be able to move the ball against a Jaguars run defense that has been solid but not spectacular so far. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Jaguars rushing offense: Dre’Mont Jones missing the game due to a shoulder injury is a blow to the Patriots’ ability to set a stout edge in the run game. And that could be crucial given that Jacksonville has had some moments on perimeter runs, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and scoring its lone rushing touchdown of the season by stressing the edge. New England should be able to hold up inside, but how starting outside linebackers Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas perform versus the run could be one of the keys to the game. | Edge: Jaguars
Special teams
The Patriots and Jaguars have two of the best special teams groups in football, but we are giving the home team a small edge in this one. There is one reason for that: the kicker position. Andy Borregales has been solid for New England and has shown that he can have the range, accuracy and mental makeup to perform in high-pressure situations. Based purely on track record and familiarity with Jacksonville’s EverBank Field, however, Cam Little appears to put his team in a slightly better position. That’s not a knock on Borregales, but more a recognition of Little being one of the NFL’s top kickers right now. | Edge: Jaguars
Coaching
This is probably the closest comparison this week, because both New England and Jacksonville have assembled some talented coaching staffs under Mike Vrabel and Liam Coen, respectively. So, why are we giving the Patriots a slight edge in this one? Because their defense has a strong case as the best-coached unit on the field on Sunday, a testament to both coordinator Zak Kuhr and his fellow assistants as well as the players being bought into the vision and executing it at a high level. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
As noted above, both the Patriots and Jaguars are very well capable of winning on Sunday. From a New England perspective, the path to victory has to start on offense: if Drake Maye and company continue to show improvement and most importantly secure the football, a Week 3 upset could be in the cards. Before we see concrete proof of that, however, we believe we could be in for a game not necessarily dominated by the defenses but shaped by it.
