It’s starting to look like the Yankees won’t be throwing their weight around in the free agency market. It’s possible they’re throwing up smokescreens, but reporting around Christmas that they are not
major players for Tatsuya Imai and are in a “holding pattern” with Cody Bellinger suggests the club is either OK with its current roster, or will need to make additions via trade.
There’s also been much to say on the downside risk of the starting rotation. Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole will both start the year on the IL and for all the reliability Cole has shown since leaving Pittsburgh, suddenly he’s 35 and that is not an age where we typically see players develop better track records with their health. Luis Gil’s profile still concerns me and Cam Schlittler, despite all the poise and talent, will be a rookie, and rookies carry risk not because of who they are as people but because they are rookies.
Finally, the Yankee system balances young bats and arms well. George Lombard Jr. is probably not going to be dealt, but Spencer Jones has shown flashes, and arms like Elmer Rodríguez or Ben Hess raise the floor of potential trade packages. All of this is to highlight the feasibility of a deal for left-hander Nick Lodolo.
Lodolo will be 28 on Opening Day, with two years of team control remaining. He’s coming off a year posting career bests in innings pitched, ERA, fWAR, FIP, the whole nine yards. His best offering a changeup but he focuses mostly on a cutter-sinker combo that should probably be better than it is. That’s particularly relevant to the Yankees, a franchise that has been able to add lateral movement and control to fastballs in recent years, and serving in a rotation with a guy like Max Fried, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Lodolo’s fastball profile improve.
This would make three lefties in the top four of the Yankee rotation, which could make them a little easier to gameplan against, however Lodolo looks a lot different than either Fried or Rodón:
(Note: I apologize for not putting this in a Reel but MLB FilmRoom has been borderline unusable today.)
Lodolo comes in very low, with just a 15 degree arm angle, nearly sidearm. Fried and Rodón are much higher, at 46 and 44 degrees respectively, creating very different angles as a hitter, but perhaps explaining part of why the latter two have better movement on their fastballs. This variation in arm angles is slightly more useful in transitioning between starters and relievers, or different bullpen options, but still gives opposing teams something to scout out.
For two years of good, not great pitchers you have to do some work with, that combination of high-ceiling bat with high-floor arms mentioned above lines up well with the Reds’ needs. They’re one of those in-between teams, trying to be the Cleveland Guardians in terms of perpetual competition without exceeding certain payroll thresholds. This requires a constant injection of young (read: free) talent, and hedging the risk of said talent by, say, trading for young arms in the Yankee system, which has worked for more than one trade partner over the past couple of seasons.
To close, there’s the open question of how service time would be addressed in the event of a work stoppage in 2027. That would be Lodolo’s final year of team control, and while the most likely outcome would be pushing everyone’s service back a year — making Nick a member of the 2029 FA class — uncertainty around how much time you’d actually have him raises the risk of a possible deal.
The Yankees have capitalized on good-but-troubled young starters before, and Lodolo’s profile matches up well with what the organization is already strong at. If New York’s not going to use the power of their bank accounts, the power of the pitching development might have to take over.
