While analytics sites like KenPom have had the Michigan Wolverines as the top team in the country over various points of this season, the AP Poll has officially given the maize and blue this distinction for the first time in over a decade. This ranking is completely justified, as the Big Ten leaders have played a step above the rest of the nation for much of this year, but this week provides a ginormous challenge that could quickly humble Dusty May’s squad.
Up first is a trip to face the Purdue Boilermakers,
arguably the second-best team in the conference. Then comes a neutral site battle against Duke, arguably the second-best team in the country. KenPom gives Michigan a 32% chance of winning both. Though a clean week would somehow ramp up the hype even higher, if the Wolverines are only able to take on of these games, the one on Tuesday does count for more: a win would boost their odds of an outright Big Ten title from 70% to 88%, per Torvik.
No. 1 Michigan (24-1, 14-1) at No. 7 Purdue (21-4, 11-3)
Date & Time: Tuesday, Feb. 17, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN
TV/Streaming: Peacock
After getting absolutely annihilated in West Lafayette last season — losing by 25 points at half — Michigan got revenge a few weeks later in Ann Arbor, taking down the No. 7 Boilermakers 75-74 despite trailing for much of the contest. The teams met for a rubber match in the Big Ten Quarters, with the No. 3-seeded Wolverines winning comfortably despite bringing a three-game losing streak to Indianapolis.
Two Stats to Watch
Purdue 2PT Defense: 55.0% (13th B1G)
Per KenPom, Purdue is a top-10 team with a top-5 offense, but the defense does have some question marks. Ranking fourth in conference play, this unit is not a weakness, though it might end up making the difference on Tuesday night. Despite strong defensive rounding, foul prevention, and takeaway numbers, the Boilermakers allow an oddly high number of shots to fall.
The Boilermakers allow the fourth-most threes in the Big Ten and see them go in at a 34.4% rate, which is good news for a Michigan team that has hit nearly 40% of its attempts over the last five games. However, it is the 55.0% mark against twos that really jumps out given that May’s group is the second-best nationally in this area, and it feels like this could be another game where the Wolverines just feast in the paint.
This is a weird thing to say against a team like Purdue that always features dominant bigs. Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff are top-50 defenders in the conference per EvanMiya, yet still the numbers suggest that teams are finding success inside the arc against the Boilermakers. If Michigan picks up this massive road win, odds are this mismatch plays a significant role in the outcome.
Braden Smith KenPom Ranking: 7th Nationally
Now regarding that lethal offense, Purdue can attack in a lot of ways. Cluff has the top ORtg in all of basketball, and CJ Cox lands in the top 100 as well. Still, everything starts with Braden Smith, and the Wolverines are quite familiar with the 2025 Big Ten Player of the Year and First Team All-American. The senior continues to be an offensive machine, averaging just under 15 PPG while hitting over 41% of his threes and dishing out nearly 9 assists per game.
Purdue’s offense is balanced between twos and threes and sits second in conference play with assists on nearly two-third of its baskets. Smith will lead his team into the highest quality makes: if Michigan gives shooters like himself and Fletcher Loyer space, expect threes to fall; if the defense overpursues, the ball will move inside. This is the type of offense that just needs one breakdown to punish any given possession.
All of that being said, the Wolverines appear to match up decently well against a team of this quality. Yaxel Lendeborg should be an x-factor on both ends of the floor, and his impact can arguably be greater than that of Smith’s given his length on defense. As long as Michigan can stop Smith from singlehandedly balancing the score, the visitors should have the depth to squeak this one out.
