As every Nationals fan knows, the bullpen was an absolute disaster in 2025. The unit’s 5.59 ERA was by far the worst in baseball. We all know reinforcements are needed, but where will they come from? One player I think the Nationals need to look at is Emilio Pagan.
Last season Pagan had a fantastic bounceback season, posting a 2.88 ERA and saving 32 games for the Reds. Interestingly, Pagan’s turnaround also lines up with when Simon Mathews became the Reds assistant pitching coach. Now Mathews is in DC
and hopefully he can lure the Reds closer.
Reports have already indicated that Pagan will have plenty of suitors this offseason. At least 10 teams are already in the mix for Pagan. The right handers swing and miss stuff and cheaper price tag compared to other relievers makes him a compelling target.
At 34 years old, Pagan has been doing this a long time and we know who he is. Pagan is a reliever with nasty stuff that strikes out a ton of batters, but he has a home run problem. That has always been the issue with him and it is why he has never been a truly elite closer. For his career, Pagan has allowed 1.51 HR/9. However, his strikeout rate of over 10 per nine and his good control make up for his homer problem.
Pagan is a true fly ball pitcher, but when he is at his best those flyballs are pop ups and the rest of his outs are strikeouts. Last season he showcased a filthy three pitch mix. The fastball is his bread and butter pitch. In 2025 Pagan threw his heater over 60% of the time.
Despite the heavy usage, batters only hit .171 against the fastball and had a whiff rate of nearly 25%. Pagan’s fastball has good velocity at 95.8 MPH, but the shape is what makes it stand out. He gets 18.5 inches of IVB from a 42 degree arm angle. That makes his fastball like it is rising.
Along with the heater, Pagan has a nasty splitter he throws to lefties and a cutter he throws to righties. The split was better last year, but both were effective offerings. There is a lot to like when looking at what Pagan did last year. Despite his FIP being in the high 3’s, the statcast data suggests he was not getting lucky.
With how Pagan improved last year, I wonder if he would want to keep working with Simon Mathews. Last year Pagan’s fastball was over a tick harder than it was in 2024, going from 94.6 MPH to 95.8. It is very possible that Mathews helped him make a tweak to find some velocity. A player in their mid 30’s finding that velocity is rare, so it must have been something mechanical.
Overall, Pagan is a quality high leverage arm which the Nationals desperately need. Besides Jose A. Ferrer, there are a ton of question marks in the Nats bullpen. Clayton Beeter has nasty stuff, but has major strike throwing concerns. PJ Poulin is crafty, but does he have the stuff? Cole Henry has some intriguing traits but strikethrowing is also an issue for him.
The Nats desperately need to grab at least one reliable high leverage in free agency. They could swing for a bigger name, but Pagan makes sense. He turns 35 in May, so he is likely to get a 2 year deal. I think a 2 year deal worth 11-12 million a year is a fair deal for both sides. The Nats bullpen needs to become respectable again and Emilio Pagan can help the cause.
