The Mariners need a lot to go right to get back to the postseason. A lot will probably go right.
One of the things I pointed out in my season recap was that the Mariners are in a tricky spot, in terms of looking ahead. They posted 30.1 fWAR as a team in 2026, which ranked 21st in the majors, and 5.5 of that came from Randy Arozarena. Level performance across the board in 2027 would make the Mariners a bottom five group. Not only that, but to return to the postseason, the Mariners would need to add
roughly 15 WAR, from internal improvements and external additions, an amount that feels insurmountable after an all-time bad season. As I wrote at the time:
“… that’s just to get back to mere Wild Card contenders. A bad injury, an underperformance, a failed development, a frowning pythagorus, and the Mariners are out of the playoff picture, firmly trending into a rebuild after six years of a 10-year plan.”
Today, I want to walk through that math, and present the good, great, and horrifying scenarios I see on the back of my napkin.
I took the top nine hitters for 2027 currently on the roster. It works out that this could very well be the Mariners starting lineup on Opening Day. I also found the WAR for the rest of the roster — that is, the “not-top nine.” I don’t much feel like putting names to that group yet, but for the sake of budgeting WAR, we need to remember that bench players typically aren’t very good and subtract some value.
We can see the top nine posted 11.3 WAR in 2026. That is deeply concerning. Obviously, Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez were shells of themselves due to injury, and Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan were similarly disappointing. But this total also reflects the Mariners are set to give three spots to 2 1/2 rookies. There’s tons of uncertainty about this group, and if they repeat their performance again, it’ll be one of the worst lineups in the majors.
Of course, roughly seven months ago, the projections were far friendlier. The ZiPS column you see here isn’t the latest in ZiPS Technology. It’s instead year two of Dan Syzmorski’s three-year rolling projection he released last December. In other words, it’s old data and missing the latest sample, but I think it’s worth looking at retrospectively. ZiPS once thought these batters to be among the best in the majors.
Now, I also included a third column here, where I sort of make my own guess (heavy emphasis on the “guess”). I came up with about 22.8 WAR, a notable drop from ZiPS but still enough to rank them roughly eighth in 2027.
I gave the assumption that Cal and Julio would each bounce back, though I didn’t think too hard about what that might look like and just gave them 10 total WAR. Donovan I walked back from ZiPS because of injury concerns. I also assumed solid seasons for Naylor, Cole Young, and Dominic Canzone. The bigger question mark is the 2 1/2 rookies. I’m fairly bullish on them overall, and gave them a total of 5 WAR, but I think you could make the case for more.
I did the same with the pitchers. Now, here I have a bit of a treat for you. In my brief tenure at FanGraphs, I wrote about Kade Anderson. While doing so, Syzmborski generously granted me an updated version of his ZiPS model for Mariners pitchers. So rather than being from pre-2026, these figures are roughly from August. His model is still quite impressed with this group.
Personally, I gave Bryan Woo a level performance for his third consecutive four-win season. I gave modest bounce backs to Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, though a step back for Emerson Hancock. I don’t know what to make of Bryce Miller and his tenuous health, and I figured 0.5 is probably what he’d earn out of the bullpen. I also just deferred to ZiPS on Kade Anderson. The bullpen I tried not to think too hard about.
Ultimately, I projected the Mariners at 17.1 WAR for 2027. That would also rank about eighth in the majors, and I think there’s room for optimism if you want to see more. I fear I’ve under projected Anderson by half — I was very, very impressed by his final few starts. I’m also not even projecting Ryan Sloan, and it’s possible he could be the top pitching prospect in baseball come spring.
On the other hand, the Mariners were the very worst pitching staff in the majors in the second half. If we assume that’s a better representation of their true talent, I’m over-projecting them by like 15 WAR. I don’t think that’s the case, but even something in the middle would be hard to overcome.
The Mariners’ roster as currently assembled was once projected for 43.4 WAR, making them one of the five best teams in the majors. If we hedge that projection for what we saw in 2026, they still look like a roughly 40-WAR team. That’s roughly where they’ve been entering the last several seasons, and is generally good news for those looking for a bounce back.
Where could they add? Probably everywhere. They could use another starting infielder. They could upgrade the bench and try to limit some of the negative value there. The bullpen remains barren and there are tons of good options available in free agency. I might even suggest another arm in the rotation, after seeing what happened down the stretch in 2026. That’s what’s exciting about the roster as it stands: It’s young, it’s projectable, and there are still tons of holes. A few good additions, a few bounce backs, and a few positive developments would not only represent a return to form, but would make the Mariners truly one of the best teams in the majors. The scaffolding for greatness is still there.
Still, this group, as it stands, posted 23.1 WAR last year. Most of that came during the first three months of the season. Level performance in 2027 would make this one of the worst teams in the majors. Heck, even a solid amount of improvement only gets them back to last year’s mark of 30 WAR (again, Arozarena did a ton to stave off an absolute worst-case scenario).
And so, the offseason begins at the crossroads for the organization. One way is dynasty, the other a cliff.
