I was watching Game Three of the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets series. My wife — who’s usually more interested in the National Anthem and the arena timeout entertainment — watched two possessions and said, “Do these guys understand this isn’t football?”
In other words, someone who pays more attention to what Britt Waters is wearing instantly noticed the difference between Wizards basketball and playoffs basketball.
Nate Duncan and John Hollinger recently dedicated a podcast episode to assessing
which players were likely to get “crucibled” — dropped from the rotation because of flaws that would get exposed by the intensity of postseason basketball. The assessment, of course, is not strictly about the athleticism, physicality, and mental focus (though it does include those factors) but the strategic as well.
In other words, if the opposing coaching staff looks at your guy and sees a target, your guy is going to get played off the floor.
As expected, former Wizards wing Corey Kispert has fallen victim to the postseason effect. Through his career in Washington, Kispert got significant playing time — 23+ minutes in every season except this one when he got 19.6. When he got traded to the Atlanta Hawks, he still got 18+. In the playoffs — 8.3 per game. His poor point-of-attack defense and lack of dimension to his game make it impossible to keep him out there much longer in a game with stakes.
So, with a hat tip to Duncan, Hollinger, and my wife, here’s a look at the Wizards and their likelihood of getting chased from the rotation if the team plays in truly competitive games next season.
Sure Things
These are guys I’m confident will be able to hold up to postseason rigors:
- Anthony Davis — Assuming he’s healthy enough to take the court, Davis has been one of the game’s best defenders for more than a decade. He’s an elite finisher around the basket who’s already been the second best player on a championship team.
- Alex Sarr — A busy and effective rim protector who can also defend switches with competence. Sarr’s offense was a bit hit or miss (his overall efficiency was below average), but he has post-up skills, acceptable finishing around the rim, and can step out and hit the long ball enough to make him a threat. He needs to get stronger (normal for a 21-year-old), but there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t hold up in a playoffs series.
Probably
These are guys I’m pretty confident are able to compete in the postseason, but I have some doubts.
- Trae Young — First in line to disagree with me on this would likely be Will Dawkins and the Wizards’ front office. On the offensive end, Young would be fine — even though the league literally made rules to put an end to his specific style of foul grifting. On defense, he’s been one of the absolute least effective defenders, ever. This makes him a target and a potentially big strategic problem for the Wizards.
- Kyshawn George — With George, I’m confident he’d hold up athletically. He won’t back down from physical play, and I think he has the skills to be good enough on offense. Why is he in the “probably” category? Excessive fouling and turnovers. Basically, the frequency of his mistakes is a potential problem that may render him unplayable in the postseason.
- Bilal Coulibaly — I have no doubt about Coulibaly on defense. His poor three-point shooting and tendency to disappear on offense could grind Washington’s offense to a halt, especially when opposing coaches elect to dare him to shoot.
- Justin Champagnie — I think I’m higher on Champagnie’s abilities than is the team’s coaching staff. I suspect they’re right — they see him in many more situations than I do. I still think he’s probably a player who’d be effective in a playoffs setting, though I do wonder about his relative lack of size.
Probably Not
- Bub Carrington — Good shooter with a solid mid-range game. He also doesn’t generate paint touches — even against regular season defense. And he coughs up the ball when pressured. Worse: Carrington is a woeful defender who plays much smaller than his measured 6-4 height. He’s someone the opposition would view as a target, which means he’s a prime candidate for getting played out of the rotation.
Maybe, Maybe, Maybe
- Will Riley — I liked some of what I saw from Riley last season, but I’d be lying if what he did down the stretch of games the team actively wanted to lose made me think he’s remotely close to being ready for the playoffs. Riley has height and potential, but he had trouble with regular season physicality. He’ll be a major target unless he gets much stronger. Force me to make a decision, and I’d put him in the “Probably Not” bucket for next season, with an eye towards bumping him into the “Probably” group in year three of his career.
- Cam Whitmore — This is based on two things: 1) athletic tools, and 2) he suffered a health problem and missed most of the season, so I just don’t know. IF Whitmore’s head is right. IF he accepts coaching, buys into the team’s system (on both ends) and gets the message that it’s okay to pass the ball sometimes, I could see him being a valuable player someday. If forced to make a call, I’d put him in the group that follows.
Nope
These are guys most likely to get chased by the NBA postseason crucible.
- Tre Johnson — Rookie who hopefully will improve. I think Johnson is a legit shooter. As a player type, he’s a lot more like Kispert than other elite shooters, which is to say he’s a major defensive target and he lacks dimension in his game.
- Jamir Watkins — A worse version of Coulibaly, which is to say — good defender who doesn’t shoot well enough or contribute enough offensively to get anything other than emergency minutes in the playoffs.
- Anthony Gill — Included here because he’s on the roster and was 10th in total minutes last season.
- Tristan Vukcevic — Good shooter with leaden feet and glacial reaction times on defense.
Players like Leaky Black, JuJu Reese, Jaden Hardy, and Kadary Richmond are more likely to end up training camp cuts or playing overseas and are not going to be part of a postseason rotation.
If you want to get super-optimistic, I can see a reasonable case to bump Young and George into “Sure Things.” I think Young has the better case than George, by the way. I don’t see an argument for moving up Coulibaly until he proves he can be enough of an offensive threat that he has to be defended.
I’d also listen to arguments about making Riley a “Probably” instead of a maybe. I’m not there yet myself, but reasonable minds can differ. I’d also listen on Johnson moving into “Probably Not” with Carrington for next because he’s so young and there’s a strong likelihood he’ll get better if he puts in the work on his body and his game. He could follow a trajectory similar to what I envision for Riley, though I suspect it could take him a bit longer because he’s smaller and there’s a bit less to his game than Riley’s.
Next up: Wizards performance ekgs. Performance ekgs are essentially season-long production trackers that help visualize how an individual’s performance trended throughout the season. Let me know in the comments who you want me to run first.
