This article is about the 40-man roster. The lede picture is of #31 – Cesar Prieto, who currently has a 40-man spot. Can anyone name the most famous #31 in the Cardinal minor league system? VEB points if you can.
Earlier this year, I wrote an article taking a look at how the 40-man roster might evolve and begin to look as time approached the end of the 2026 season here. Last week I wrote an article on the catching carousel that leaned a bit into this 40-man roster analysis. Here are the details:
In
the earlier article, I outlined some potentially tough 40-man decisions to be encountered this coming fall. By now we have lots of new information to add to the pool. At the time, I had a list of sixteen prospects that seemed possible to get 40-man spots due to performance, guys that would require 40-man spots due to time in the organization and a couple of reliever prospects who seemed possible given the (then) obvious deficiencies in the bullpen.
Today, the 40-man sits at 38 players (plus Ramon Urias and Max Rajcic, both 60-day IL occupants). So, think of it as full, the sense that both 60-day IL players will roll off the IL no later than the end of the season (Urias is expected back next week). Some names will fall off the list after the season comes to an end, including Urias, Strzelecki, Ferguson. A number of players will be questionable as to whether they remain such as Stanek, Bruihl, maybe one of the extra outfielders, possibly Prieto. Thus, somewhere between three and seven spots should open organically, with the deciding factor being primarily a decision of 1) who is a better long-term prospect AND 2) who needs protection. Up or out is the mantra.
Of the original 16 prospects, where do they stand today?
Four players – JJ Wetherholt, Quinn Mathews, Max Rajcic** and Luis Gastelum were on the list of 16 but have already made the jump to the 40-man roster.
**Rajcic was not considered a prospect but was on my list of guys who could emerge from non-prospect status. He did, then he got hurt. He is all but certain to miss most of the 2027 season, but I’m going to expect that they keep him.
Originally listed prospects that will require 40-man spots in November 2026 to be protected from Rule V (9):
Skylar Hales – A subpar AAA performance makes a 40-man assignment highly unlikely.
Ixan Henderson – two stints on the IL and ending his season on the IL-60 likely precludes a 40-man spot. With his long-term prognosis unclear, he is unlikely to get taken in the Rule V draft.
Jesus Baez – he most definitely will get a 40-man spot. Hands down.
Travis Honeyman – Age, inconsistency and an inability to stay healthy likely preclude a 40-man spot. I reason that if he was going to get a 40-man roster spot, he would have been promoted to Memphis ahead of Davis.
Chase Davis – Given the recent promotion to AAA and a so far decent showing there, I’d suspect he is likely to displace one of those back-up outfielders, though not a lock. Interesting decision.
Zach Levenson – Really never got established as a hitter at AA, so not.
Chen Wei Lin – An interesting case. They may try to sneak him through without giving him a spot. His command issues and never having pitched in AAA make him a not super attractive Rule V draft candidate (if there is a draft). I’m going to guess they protect him, but this is also not a lock.
Tyler Bradt – he has fallen off the prospect list (now 59 deep), so that tells us enough. Not.
Leonel Sequera – had just made High-A and went down with season ending injury. Not.
Won Bin-Cho – He should get a 40-man spot. His ascendance began mid- to late last year and continues unabated. A system previously bereft of outfielders is now turning the corner in this position group.
Some of the reliever prospects that might have ascended to the 40-man to feed the Memphis shuttle as the Cardinals rotate bullpen arms and while protecting other prospects:
Mason Burns – Had a long-term injury right as season’s start.
Michael Watson – An indy ball signee, never get untracked at AA this year.
Zack Thompson – I’m pretty sure I saw his ghost in Jupiter. Injuries have ended his run.
Scott Blewitt – Made the 40-man, then was DFA’ed.
Hancel Rincon** – Questionable. Seems to have found a niche at AAA in the bullpen. Would not shock me if they put him on the 40-man. If this is in the cards, so to speak, expect to see him up in September for a cameo appearance in the StL bullpen.
Where does all that detail leave us?
Above, I projected between 3 and 7 spots coming open organically. I have 5 players: Jesus Baez, Chen-Wei Lin, Hancel Rincon, Won-Bin Cho and Chase Davis being given 40-man spots. Seems like that works out. Perhaps even disappoints some people who would like to see more sprucing up on the bottom of the 40-man that just 5 slots. But, wait…What about prospects the Cardinals brought in during the season? Will any of them need protection?
It turns out YES. Sort of. Cade Winquest was not in the organization and thus not on the prospect list when I wrote the original article but is back in the Cardinal pipeline now and he will need protection or be exposed. I don’t see them protecting him. All 30 teams have had (and passed on) multiple shots at him already. He will be on the AAA roster, thus eligible only if a team will carry him on their MLB roster all season.
Also, Colton Ledbetter will be eligible for Rule V if not protected. A number of outfielders have, or will soon, pass him up. I don’t see him getting protected. Some might see higher upside than a Torres, but I think Torres experience with the MLB club this year breaks all ties. If Torres was arb-eligible and looking at a nice payday, it might be a different view, but he is not.
An unusual complication
This year, in a situation that seems unusual, the Cardinals have handful of players once viewed as top 10 (in the system) prospects who have fizzled. Their 40-man status seems a lot more tenuous today than it did one year ago. Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese. Given the lack of pressure, I don’t see any of these guys being cut loose. Gorman, as an arb-eligible player, is probably the most exposed here. It is quite possible the Cardinals may look to move these guys off the 40-man via trade so they can shuffle in some younger talent lower in the system (continuing the up or out mantra), but there is no pressure to.
Summary
It turns out, with the early roster churn in the 2026 season, the Cardinals have rather adroitly massaged their roster to avoid any “tough” November calls. They have 5 guys they will likely keep and have the flexibility to free up a couple of other spots if they wish to add talent from the outside via Free Agency or via trades involving non-roster players.
Which leads me back to the original topic – the Cardinal Catcher Carousel. Many believe that the Cardinals can’t continue to carry four catchers on the 40-man roster, particularly with a certain budding superstar looking to take up a fifth catcher slot. This can’t be, right? Well. It turns out, it can, at least in the sense there is no pressure on the 40-man roster to move a catcher. Which makes me suspect they may not, unless the right offer materializes.
