As I’ve had time to sit with Sunday’s result, I feel pretty much the same way as I did when the clock hit zero. Yes, the Colts finally won a game, but they won a game in a way that they haven’t in a long time. Ugly vs. a good team.
The Anthony Richardson era featured some ugly wins, the Chicago and Miami games come to mind in 2024. But never have they won an ugly game vs. a good team.
They’ve gotten out to hot starts before, but they’ve never made enough plays when it matters. Sunday, they finally
did.
Despite being 0-3, I think there’s a lot to be scared of when it comes to Houston… well their defense at least. Their defense absolutely came to play. It felt like the Colts had to earn every single yard. They were better up front, they wrecked havoc in the backfield, and really forced the Colts to play a certain way without Alec Pierce.
Daniel Jones had a plethora of turnovers vs. the Texans. The biggest issue that I’ve noticed is that he has been drifting backwards in the pocket and getting himself into trouble before he even throws the ball. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes have elite arm strength to make some of the throws without hitching work, but even then it’s gotten him in trouble. Because your tackles don’t know where the launch point of the QB is, they think they’re riding the DE “around the hump” but actually just leading him right to the QB.
The Texans play a lot of vision zone or spot drop defense. They aren’t matching any routes or passing things off, they are just dropping to their landmarks in relation to where the QB’s eyes are. Jones was fantastic in this game in moving the hook defenders off their spot to create throwing windows— especially late in the game when it mattered most.
Here’s a great example of what elite vision zone defense can do to a QB. Reed Blankenship is reading the eyes of Jones in Cover 3. Vision droppers are taught to drift their landmarks based on where the QB is looking. So when Jones works his eyes closer to the sideline, Blankenship “melts” outside. But if the QB looks right at you, you’re taught to hold your landmark. It’s very similar to the combine drill we see every February.
I thought Josh Downs was fantastic in this game. He is schematically limited as a player, only due to his size, but he owns his role as well as anyone in football. Downs is fantastic after the catch. Here the Colts are running a 2nd level RPO and running a glance route to put the WILL LB in conflict.
Downs works back the other way after the catch on a lot of these in-breaking routes. I wonder how teams will start to defend that going forward. It definitely will affect how future players take angles in order to tackle him. Sometimes it doesn’t matter because Downs just has a natural feel for space, but he’s put this move on tape, so I think teams are going to be thinking about it all week.
Some very weird reps in this game. The Colts are running Snag + Basic (a concept that the Colts have ran a million times with Jones, Minshew, Richardson, Flacco, you name it). The goal is to put a horizontal stretch on the curl-flat player. Is he going to take the RB fast to the flat or hang with the snag route. This is a clear read to get the ball to the RB in the flat. But Jones hangs on the snag route and then gets stripped sacked in a key point in the game.
The defense had a bounce back game, but it’s important to take it with a grain of salt. A Nico Collinsless Texans offense is not explosive, and other than CJ Stroud being very accurate, they do nothing particularly well. They also essentially choked the game away when it mattered most in the 4th Quarter. Now granted, they deserve credit for hanging in there while losing the turnover battle… but Stroud did what Stroud has done in almost every matchup he’s had vs. the Colts. Made plays when they mattered most.
I think the Colts can build on their third down sub package with Tomi and DeForest Buckner. Both of them are lightning quick off the ball. This is a perfectly executed stunt. Anytime you can get a free runner in an interior gap your chances of winning that down skyrocket
I think Justin Walley is really building some confidence as a nickel corner. He’s gotten better every single week that he’s been out there.
Look how sticky the Colts play man coverage on this rep. Granted, it hasn’t looked like that through the month of September, and part of that is lack of talent in the Texans WR room, but that’s how the Colts want to play defense.
WHAT AM I LOOKING AT HEADING INTO WEEK 4?
Heading into Week 4 I think the Colts have to find their identity on offense again. In order for the Colts to survive without Alec Pierce, they need to find someone, literally anyone, that can catch the ball down the field. Right now, it’s really hard to chase explosives when you don’t have any speed on the field. Safeties don’t have to play as deep, the coverage is compressed, and you can be way more aggressive in coverage. If they can lighten up some of these boxes, I believe Jonathan Taylor can be the guy who was almost guaranteed to rush for over 120 yards a weekend.
Burks is a guy that I’m looking at. He’s been their jet motion/sweep player. He has speed but doesn’t have the route or target equity for defenses to truly respect it. I think that will have to change very soon.
Defensively, I think the Colts need to preform well this weekend in order to feel confident about them moving forward. You’re playing a backup QB without any receivers that should challenge a corner that you gave up 2 first round picks for. I’m looking at the pass rush in this matchup. The interior pass rush has held up their end of the bargain, but I think it’s time for Laiatu Latu to start effecting the game. I don’t care what role Lou Anarumo has him playing in.
