Every week, we’ll examine the numbers behind the next opponent on the schedule. We’ll look at historical data points as well as more recent numbers. At the end, we’ll add it all up to see what Dallas needs to do to secure a win and which team may have the edge.
The history
The Cowboys lead the Commanders in head-to-head matchup all-time 81-49-2.
The Dak Prescott-led Cowboys are 13-2 against the Commanders. In five of those wins, Dak was pulled out early with the game locked up well before the end of the fourth
quarter.
In 15 games, Dak Prescott has thrown for 3,716 yards, 32 touchdowns, five interceptions, and has a passer rating of 107.4. This is his best passer rating against any team in the NFC East.
The most thrilling matchup between the two teams came in week 12 of 2024. This game featured seven scores in just the fourth quarter alone, including an electric kick return touchdown from KaVontae Turpin.
Bounce back game?
The Cowboys have not started 0-2 since 2010.
Dak Prescott is 5-0 in the games immediately following a week one loss.
Nearly 90% of teams that start 0-2 go on to miss the playoffs. In 2025, every team that started the season with two losses missed the playoffs.
Cowboys key stats from last week
Prescott threw for 175 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
The longest play on offense for the Cowboys went for just 17 yards.
The defense allowed a 134.2 passer rating from Jaxson Dart, gave up 165 yards on the ground, and allowed the Giants to chew up enormous amounts of clock on their way to the endzone throughout the game.
Commanders key stats from last week
Jayden Daniels threw for 164 yards against the Eagles and added another 31 yards on the ground.
Philadelphia was able to pressure Daniels on 19 of 38 drop backs, resulting in the quarterback going 3-15 for 26 yards through the air.
Against the blitz, Daniels went 5-7 for 47 yards and two touchdowns against Philadelphia’s blitz.
The Commanders defense gave up explosive plays of 64, 43, 42, 41, 22 yards against the Eagles. They had a difficult time covering Dallas Goedert who had four receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns.
What do the numbers mean?
The numbers lied to us last week. There were too many unknowns with the entirely new system and coaching staff in New York. This week tells us a clearer story.
The Commanders’ defense forced five three-and-outs and seven Philadelphia punts. 138 of Jalen Hurts’ 203 passing yards came on just three plays. Of Saquon Barkley’s 83 rushing yards, 42 came on one rushing attempt. The Commanders are susceptible to big plays, but without those chunks, their defense was stout against the Eagles. It will be important for Dallas to utilize their weapons on the outside early and often to generate those big plays.
After last week, the Cowboys should decide it’s time to start the game by airing the ball out. Before the season started, Sharp Football had the Commanders’ secondary ranked 31st in the league, and last week’s tape confirmed it. Dallas should target Mike Sainristil as much as possible with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as he was the weakest link in week one, giving up over 35 yards per reception.
If Dallas takes the route of attacking the Commanders’ defensive backfield with chunk plays, it’ll be important for the offensive line to hold up against a solid pass rush consisting of Odafe Oweh, Dorance Armstrong, K’Lavon Chaisson and Daron Payne. Dallas will also need to look out for a blitzing Sonny Styles, who absolutely crushed Saquon Barkley on his way to a Jalen Hurts sack last week.
On the other side of the ball, this defense will be looking to redeem themselves after a poor week one outing against the Giants. One key piece of information to keep in mind this week: blitzing Jayden Daniels may not be the best idea. Last week, Daniels struggled when the Eagles forced pressure without sending an extra man, completing just three out of fifteen attempts for 26 yards. However, when they attacked the pocket with the blitz, Daniels threw for two touchdowns and had a completion percentage of 71.4%.
This week, getting home without sending extra blitzers will be one of the most important keys to the game. If this defense can do that in addition to fixing their mental mistakes from week one, they’ll find themselves back on track.
Given the history of the Cowboys’ ability to avoid 0-2, and a massive strength on weakness matchup between Dallas’ receivers/Washington’s defensive backs, a bounce-back game is the reasonable expectation in week two. It would be surprising to see the Dallas offense struggle to launch again this week. 27 or more points feels like a lock against the Commanders.
The real question will be how often the Cowboys defense can give the ball back to this offense. All things considered, the odds favor Dallas at home this week with a win against their division rival.
