The Bills lead the NFL in points per game (32.0) and total yards per game (386.4), and they head to MetLife at 7-1 on a four-game winning streak. The Jets are 2-7 and have lost four in a row, which makes this look like a game that plays itself. Joe Brady spent the week telling reporters that records can mislead in this league, and New York gives him some material: the NFL’s fifth-highest pressure rate (39.2 percent), 22 sacks, and a rookie in David Bailey, the second overall pick, who is tied for
fourth in sacks (7.5) and tied for the league lead in forced fumbles (five). (Spencer Brown, Buffalo’s starting right tackle, is doubtful with an ankle injury.)
Buffalo’s last two wins, 36-10 over the Ravens and 23-6 in Minnesota, were its two biggest of the season, and the defense gave up 16 points across both. That unit had allowed 29 or more points in five of its first six games, so the last two weeks matter. The question mark is the quarterback list: Carson Wentz, and a Ravens group that got one pass from Lamar Jackson. Geno Smith isn’t a world beater by any means, but he is an experienced starting QB in this league, with some real young talent around him. If they’re allowed to get hot and enjoy the game, it can turn into a tough afternoon for Buffalo very quickly.
Without further ado, here are the players I believe will need to be at their best so the Bills can earn their eighth win of the season:
KEEP ROLLING
James Cook, RB: If you feed him, he’ll come
James Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards and a touchdown in Minneapolis, 10 more carries than any other running back in Week 9. He averaged 2.7 yards per carry through three quarters behind Tylan Grable and Austin Corbett on the left side, then the Vikings’ front wore down: 47 yards on one fourth-quarter possession that ended with his five-yard touchdown, and Buffalo held the ball for 42:32 to Minnesota’s 17:28. PFF still graded him 52.9, a reminder that the yardage came on volume more than clean running.
The Jets are the kind of defense volume works against. They rank 26th against the run at 128.0 yards per game, and it is getting worse: about 118 per game through five weeks, just over 140 over the last four. Kansas City ran for 163 yards at 5.1 yards per carry last Sunday. The advanced numbers disagree on the details, so I’ll flag it: the Jets are ninth in EPA per rush allowed (-0.142), which strips out garbage time, yet 30th in rush success rate allowed (51.5 percent). That reads to me like a defense that gives up steady, unspectacular gains, and those add up late.
On the other hand, Cook is fifth in the NFL with 814 rushing yards, tied for eighth at 4.8 per carry, and he has scored in seven straight games. Since 2021, the Jets have allowed the Bills 145 rushing yards per game, 4.6 per carry, and 15 touchdowns across ten meetings, per the Jets’ own site. The one thing that can interrupt this is the football itself. That same site notes Cook has fumbled ten times since the start of last season (I flagged it in Week 6), and Bailey’s five forced fumbles lead the league. If Cook holds on to it, I expect a 25-carry day that gets better as it goes.
Ed Oliver, DT: Win the one-on-ones Deone Walker gives you
Ed Oliver has played five games this season, and the defense looks different with him in them. Through the first stretch, Buffalo allowed 25.3 points per game with him on the field and 31.7 without; in the two games since his return, it allowed 10 and 6. In Minneapolis, he played 28 snaps (58 percent), had three quarterback hits and graded 79.1 at PFF, the fifth-best mark on the defense. A PFF-based breakdown from The IDP Show has him at 11 pressures over those two games with no sacks and a 72.1 pass-rush grade for the season.
Oliver has been around for a while now, but something has changed — Deone Walker, the nose tackle, was double-teamed on 71 percent of defensive snaps while Oliver was out, and he has earned the attention with an 86.1 PFF pass-rush grade (second among 126 qualifying interior linemen), 25 pressures and a spot on PFF’s midseason All-Pro second team. His run-defense grade is 61.9, 41st at the position, but the eye test certainly gives me some “he’s been better than this” vibes. With Breece Hall back from his quadriceps injury (15 carries for 61 yards last week) and Braelon Allen fourth in the league in rushing yards over expected (+124) and sixth at 5.0 per carry, I expect the Walker-Oliver combo to be at their best on Sunday.
STEP UP
Tylan Grable, OT: Back on the right side, with Bailey ahead
Spencer Brown did not practice Thursday or Friday and is doubtful. I expect Grable at right tackle, with Dawkins back at left tackle and Anderson at left guard; Dawkins (ribs) and Anderson (ankle) both practiced fully on Friday and carry no designation. Right has been his best side. Before Minneapolis, most of his work had come there, including 82 snaps against Baltimore in his first real start, where charting-based metrics hit him with two pressures on 42 pass-blocking snaps, both in true pass sets. Against the Vikings, he moved to left tackle for all 80 snaps, and PFF graded him 51.0 overall with a 40.2 pass-blocking grade and four pressures allowed. PFF had him at 55.8 for the season over 133 snaps before that game.
Bailey is the problem, though. He has 40 pressures on 194 rushes (20.6 percent, second-highest among players with at least 100), plus the sacks and the forced fumbles. PFF is less impressed by how he wins: a 10.3 percent pass-rush win rate (56th of 91 edge rushers) and a 66.0 pass-rush grade (38th). That gap suggests a rusher who finishes plays and benefits from the pressure around him more than one who beats tackles clean every snap, which is a matchup a swing tackle can survive. Brady said the Jets move Bailey around the formation, so it could be more about quickly recognizing stunt games and where the pressure is coming from, than simply neutralizing the man lining up in front of you. Allen was sacked four times in Minneapolis, and the bar for Grable is keeping Bailey from ending drives: no sacks, and no strips that reach the ball.
Amani Hooker, S: The best moment for a new safety to arrive
The Bills sent a 2027 second-round pick to Tennessee on Tuesday for Amani Hooker and a fifth, after releasing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Hooker said Wednesday he would play Sunday. He arrives with five interceptions, tied for the NFL lead and the most of any safety, three of them against Joe Burrow in Week 8. PFF has him at 81.0 overall, 75.2 in coverage (10th among 100 safeties) and 83.9 against the run (10th), and he played 99 percent of the Titans’ snaps across seven games. Buffalo’s defense had six interceptions through eight games and allowed 238.8 passing yards per game, the fourth-most in the league, with 28 completions of 20-plus yards.
He doesn’t need to be the savior, though. The timing helps. The defense has allowed 10 and 6 points in its last two games, with six sacks over two weeks, and a new safety fits more easily on a unit that is already playing fast. Cole Bishop played all 48 snaps in Minneapolis, Damar Hamlin played 44, and Geno Stone 25, so the first thing to watch is who gives up snaps to Hooker. The test is Garrett Wilson, who leads the Jets with 527 yards and three touchdowns and practiced fully on Friday after a concussion, plus rookie Omar Cooper Jr. (306 yards and two touchdowns in five games, with an 83.3 percent catch rate. Jim Leonhard said the Jets create clean pictures for Smith and get the ball out. A safety with Hooker’s range and run-defense grade is supposed to muddy those pictures and shrink the explosive plays, and if he does it in his first game, the case for the trade makes itself.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Also Rolling
- Connor McGovern, C: PFF graded him 75.5 in Minneapolis, fourth-best on the offense, with Dion Dawkins and Alec Anderson both out against the league’s heaviest-blitzing defense. The Jets rank fifth in pressure rate, and McGovern was limited Wednesday and Thursday with a neck injury before a full practice Friday and no designation.
- Ty Johnson, RB: Johnson played only 17 snaps (21 percent) and still graded 79.0, third-best on the offense, with a 36-yard catch on a third down early in the third quarter. He has 17 catches for 210 yards in six games, and against a defense that sends extra rushers, he should have more opportunities to produce.
- Khalil Shakir, WR: Shakir caught all four of his targets for 58 yards (PFF: 80.1, second-best on the offense). Over his last five games, he has 23 catches on 27 targets for 318 yards. The Jets lean on man coverage, and Shakir is Josh Allen’s quick answer when the rush arrives.
- Dorian Williams, LB: Williams played just 19 snaps (40 percent, down from 29 a week earlier) and graded 92.8, second on the defense behind Terrel Bernard’s 94.9. His interception came with T.J. Hockenson covered one-on-one down the seam, his second of the season after the one against the Raiders in Week 6. I had him in a different corner of this list for coverage that week, so the play stood out. The Jets use four tight ends (Kenyon Sadiq, Mason Taylor, Jeremy Ruckert and Jelani Woods), and that is his test.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Aaron Glenn is 0-8 against AFC East opponents as Jets head coach, and Brady is right that New York has played in plenty of one-score games. I’d like to see a more pass-happy approach built on Allen’s playmaking ability, like in the first couple of games. It could result in a blowout win, with the Jets struggling to keep up with the most prolific offense in the league. However, that approach got Allen banged up real quick, so I expect Brady to keep riding Cook and the run game until the Jets really force Superman to put the cape on. On defense, Oliver and Walker will have to squeeze the pocket, and Hooker can make an impact on the safety group for the first time. The risk sits on a talented divisional rival, playing at home, putting together a strong game against the AFC leaders who could overlook them.
Which worries you more on Sunday: Grable against Bailey, or something else? Tell me in the comments!
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
