The pervading narrative about the Buffalo Bills is that recent stumbles have thrown up some red flags about this year’s team. The 4-0 start against losing teams wasn’t very impressive, and the back-to-back
losses against the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons exposed vulnerabilities in a defense that’s regressed and an offense that’s lost its rhythm. Worse yet, injuries have ravaged the depth chart.
With the one seed in the AFC still within reach and an 8-0 post-bye record under head coach Sean McDermott as a historical crutch, this break is a chance for re-calibration. But who’s carrying the Bills toward contention, and who’s dragging them back?
Here’s my deep dive into the top three trending up, and the top three trending down. It’s all backed by stats and advanced metrics through six weeks. I’ve also added honorable mentions for those on the cusp.
Top 3 Bills players trending up
The bright spots in Buffalo’s shady early season
1. RB James Cook – The Ground & Pound Engine
James Cook has been the Bills’ most consistent performer, evolving from a complementary back into a bona fide featured running back. Entering Week 7, he’s been a top-five back league-wide, averaging 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) and posting 626 total scrimmage yards with five touchdowns.
Even as the offense sputtered in Weeks 5 and 6, Cook maintained efficiency, finishing with 537 rushing yards (third in the NFL) and a league-leading 6.1 yards after contact per attempt (YAC/att) among backs with 100-plus carries. Cook’s broken tackle rate sits at 28.3% (top 10), per Pro Football Focus (PFF), turning short-yardage dump-offs into chunk plays.
Advanced metrics highlight his elusiveness: Cook’s expected points added (EPA) per rush is plus-0.18 (fifth among RBs), a stark contrast to the Bills’ overall rushing EPA of plus-0.12. When Cook touches the ball 18-plus times, Buffalo is 3-0. Dialing him back in recent losses correlated with a 42% drop in offensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).
Cook’s the stabilizer Joe Brady needs to lean on post-bye. Finding ways to give him more touches, especially on passing downs, and using him in the biggest moments of the games is a nice start to get the offense going again.
2. DT Deone Walker – The Rookie Disruptor
Amid a defensive line that’s been gashed for 148 rushing yards per game (28th in the NFL), fourth-round rookie Deone Walker has emerged as a revelation. The Kentucky product has helped Buffalo’s interior with 0.5 sacks and 12 quarterback pressures in just 45% snap share, boasting a 92.4 PFF pass-rush grade (elite among rookies).
His run-defense metrics are equally impressive: Walker ranks top-15 among interior defenders with a 14.2% run-stop percentage and plus-2.3 tackles over expected. In Weeks 4-6, opponents’ rushing success rate dipped to 38% on plays where Walker was aligned against the run, per Next Gen Stats. His EPA per pass-rush dropback is plus-0.42 (top-five league-wide), bolstering Buffalo’s 34.8% pressure rate (12th in the NFL), per PFF, despite injuries to defensive tackle Ed Oliver and others.
At 6’6″ and 345 pounds, Walker’s been the tone-setter the Bills needed inside, trending toward All-Rookie honors if he sustains this trajectory.
3. LB Shaq Thompson – The Veteran Revival
Shaq Thompson signed as a low-profile free-agent depth piece in June 2025, slotted fourth or fifth on the linebacker depth chart behind Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, and Dorian Williams. But the 31-year-old ex-Panther has seized every opportunity, emerging as Buffalo’s top defender with a league-high 90.5 PFF overall grade among linebackers (fourth overall). He’s logged 24 tackles, 1.0 sack, a forced fumble, two passes defended, and six run stops in limited snaps, with an elite 91.8 coverage grade (first among LBs) and 86.7 tackling grade.
Thompson’s EPA per play is +0.24 (top-three for LBs), and his presence in the lineup improved the run defense, holding opponents to 4.2 YPC when he’s on the field. Per Next Gen Stats, his 28% route-jumper success rate ranks top-five, turning him into a valuable piece in the middle of the defense. As a former first-round pick with years of success in Carolina, his resurgence gives Buffalo some stability, balancing out Milano’s struggle to stay healthy.
Top 3 Bills trending down
Cracks in the foundation?
1. GM Brandon Beane – The Roster Architect Under Fire
General manager Brandon Beane’s offseason blueprint — retooling a contender around quarterback Josh Allen — has faltered early, with key re-signings and draft picks yielding underwhelming returns. Extensions for cornerback Christian Benford (three years, $45 million), defensive end Greg Rousseau (four years, $64 million), and linebacker Terrel Bernard (three years, $30 million) haven’t yielded the expected results.
Benford’s 68.2 PFF coverage grade (down from 82.1 in 2024) has allowed a 65% completion rate on targets; Rousseau’s 1.5 sacks and 62.1 pass-rush grade contribute to a bottom-10 edge pressure rate; Bernard’s 12.4% missed tackle rate showcases the run defense struggles.
Beane’s 2025 draft class, hyped for defensive youth, has had minimal impact: Defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (pre-injury 58.3 PFF grade) managed two tackles before a knee issue, and edge rusher Landon Jackson (72nd overall) has zero pressures in 22% of snaps. Last year’s picks like wide receiver Keon Coleman (24 catches on 35 targets for 237 yards and two touchdowns; struggling with consistency on and off the field), safety Cole Bishop (27 tackles, two sacks, one pass defended, and one interception), and running back Ray Davis (30 rushing yards, 2.3 avg) haven’t had the expected impact.
Choosing raw, young talent like Coleman over more pro-ready prospects ignores a “win-now” window, while mediocre free-agent targets (like wide receiver Joshua Palmer, three years, $36 million) have produced middling results — namely Palmer’s 4.8 YAC/reception (bottom-30). Beane’s roster moves haven’t been good enough, raising doubts about his capabilities to build a true Super Bowl roster around Allen.
2. HC Sean McDermott – Year 9 Stagnation
Entering Year 9, Sean McDermott’s Bills remain playoff perennials but a Super Bowl mirage, with the defense allowing 156.3 rushing yards per game (26th) and 323.5 total yards (17th) after early promise. McDermott’s reliance on past-their-prime veterans like cornerback Tre’Davious White (groin/Achilles issues, 62.9 PFF grade) and safety Taylor Rapp (12.4% missed tackles) over promising rookies like cornerback Dorian Strong (81.2 PFF in camp, now on IR) and safetu Jordan Hancock (81.3 preseason grade) has hurt the chances of developing up-and-coming talent without establishing a decent floor.
The third-down woes have continued (42% conversions allowed, 22nd), and a 15% increase in explosive plays from 2024 signals regression. McDermott’s reluctance to take over defensive play-calling from inexperienced defensive coordinator Bobby Babich — unlike Andy Reid or Sean McVay’s hands-on approach with their units — has led to inconsistent schemes, with a 28% blitz rate (league average) failing to mask a 5.8 yards per carry allowed (31st). The poor usage of resources is clear, with Babich trying to run more man schemes but not having the personnel to do so.
Defense is McDermott’s area of expertise; I can’t be fine with him watching those things and not doing anything. Despite a 4-2 record, the clock is ticking, and the lack of defensive progress makes me question McDermott’s decisions as the Super Bowl window narrows.
3. OC Joe Brady – Run-First Rut
Joe Brady’s shift from a top-three passing EPA offense under Daboll/Dorsey to a run-heavy scheme looks good… until it doesn’t anymore. The Bills rank second in rushing (154 YPG) but 22nd in passing (210 YPG), with a -15% success rate on clear passing downs when defenses blitz (Allen sacked 12 times, 11.9% rate).
Instead of creating a balanced attack, Buffalo has become dependent on a strong run game to a degree where not even the reigning MVP and arguably best quarterback in the league can make the passing game work when needed. Things already looked difficult last year in the playoffs, where Josh Allen wasn’t able to put up the impressive numbers from past postseasons. But now? It seems to be even harder. If defenses know the pass is coming, it’s very unlikely the Bills’ offense will find any success throwing the football.
Brady’s insufficient use of Cook in the passing game (1.8 targets/game, 4.2 YAC/rec) and others like tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Shakir embolden aggressive defenses, spiking Allen’s negative play rate to 15.2% (22nd). Offensive DVOA drops 38% without a strong run game, as opponents don’t fear Buffalo’s receivers as deep threats (air yards/attempt at 8.4, 18th) or quick separators. Allen’s completion over expected dips to +1.2 when blitzed (down from +4.1 in 2024).
In my opinion, the time and resources allocated, and the scheme’s reliance on the run game, leave Allen vulnerable without enough weapons and plays to punish defenses. I can’t remember a team putting an MVP QB in such a situation.
Honorable Mentions
Trending Up:
- TE Dalton Kincaid (20 catches, 287 yards, 3 TDs; 7.1 YAC/rec, breaking out as expected last year)
- TE Jackson Hawes (4 catches, 54 yards, 1.2 yards per route run, amazing blocker and potential long-term TE2)
- WR Tyrell Shavers (5 catches, 51 yards on 7 targets; preseason standout earning more snaps than expected and making the most out of them)
Trending Down:
- S Taylor Rapp (26 tackles, 12.4% missed tackle rate, weak in space and playing deep)
- CB Tre’Davious White (62.9 PFF grade, 68% completion rate allowed)
- QB Josh Allen (not for on-field struggles — QBR 68.2, 1,397 passing yards, 12 TDs — but as the locker-room leader and face of the franchise, he must demand more from the front office, the coaching staff and, if necessary, from the ownership, to secure a better shot at winning it all)
Final Thoughts
The bye week is a pivot point. McDermott’s 8-0 post-bye streak demands fixes — namely more Cook, sharper schemes, and defensive health. With the trade deadline looming and the Carolina Panthers next, Buffalo’s Super Bowl window hinges on reversing these trends. For now, it’s resilience amid regression; classic Bills.
We know Buffalo is capable of going on a run towards securing another divisional title. Can they win three consecutive games against some of the best coaches and rosters in the league, though? At some point, having Josh Allen as your quarterback, just making the playoffs can’t be enough.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
