At the onset of the 2025 NFL season it seemed like a safe bet that the Buffalo Bills would once again be crowned the AFC East Champions. Whether it’s the ascendancy of a new elite talent or lightning in a bottle remains to be seen, but the New England Patriots and quarterback Drake Maye have won 10 straight in a run that for some time looked like it would leave the Bills in the dust. Now with four games remaining in the season, there’s a very simple (and not too impossible) path for Buffalo to make
their return as the six-time division winner.
I want to be clear that I’m not insinuating this will be easy or remotely guaranteed, but the scenario below is also not insane to dream about either.
Well? Let’s get on with it
Before we get rolling with my scenario, here’s a list of tiebreakers listed in order of priority when two teams in a division have a tied record. I’m going with this scenario for purposes of this article as Buffalo must have at least a tied record (duh) and we don’t need an article to tell you that if the Bills ended up with a better record they’d get the division (also, duh).
Here are your tiebreaker scenarios:
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in common games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
Alright, now for the simplest and most likely scenario to occur. This isn’t the only option out there of course, but if the Bills win out that would give them victories over the Patriots, Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets to finish with a 13-4 record.
To get the division, the easiest New England scenario is a loss to Buffalo AND a loss to the Miami Dolphins in their remaining games against Miami, Baltimore Ravens, and New York Jets. For some quick answers to some “what if” questions:
- Buffalo cannot lose to New England. The Patriots clinch the division with a win.
- Technically a loss to the Jets would work just as well as one to the Dolphins but we’re using Miami as our example because I think that’s more likely.
- If the Bills win out, the outcome of the Ravens game is irrelevant, though of course if the Patriots drop that one it can give the Bills a one-game buffer if needed.
Here’s a chart.
These can be tough to organize without a ton of extra columns to label everything. I assume readers at Buffalo Rumblings know the division teams well enough where they didn’t need to be separated out. For other considerations though, red font equates to a loss and games in italics are ones remaining to be played.
With my hypothetical, the Bills and Patriots would split with the head-to-head tiebreaker. Again, this is 100% necessary for any chance at the division. The next tiebreaker is division record and that’s why the Baltimore game isn’t relevant to our scenario. It won’t impact that second tiebreaker so the Patriots’ second loss of these last four games HAS to be the Dolphins or Jets. That would give both teams a 4-2 division record.
This is where I had to do my homework and why I organized the chart the way I did. The large block of games is the common opponents list. In this scenario, both teams wind up 10-2 against common opponents. So once again they’d be even as far as playoff tiebreakers are concerned.
If you’re still with me, that forces the next criteria — which is record in conference games. This is where Buffalo finally has an edge. You see that I put the loss to the Atlanta Falcons in bold font as that’s the critical one. New England has already swept all of their NFC opponents meaning all losses are within the conference. Buffalo’s loss to the Falcons being one of their four gives that tiny edge to the Bills.
I’m not guaranteeing a thing, but this straightforward scenario would put Buffalo back in first place in the AFC East once again. All that’s necessary is one loss on top of the Bills taking the second meeting. At this point, the easiest thing to do is to root against New England every week, but if Buffalo wins this weekend and then against Cleveland, Bills Mafia should all be temporary Dolphins fans for a week.
