Make no mistake, the Cubs have won a lot of games this season with their patient approach at the plate. The willingness to move the line and not try to do too much has served them well so many times. But this is the first game this year where I can remember that their patience literally won them the game. No disrespect to Pedro Ramirez or anyone who pitched in this game. We’re going to talk about all of them before we are done here. But the decisive stretch of the game went hit by pitch, walk, walk (game
tied), hit by pitch (Cubs lead). As was pointed out in my initial look at this series, the Pirate bullpen got better at the trade deadline and they’ve been pretty good when they are able to deploy their leverage pitchers in leverage situations. Gregory Soto was the only reliever they used in this one and he lost some amount of command and control. The Cubs benefitted and got the win.
This was a close one, so we ought to take a peek at the WPA from it. After the top of the fifth, the Cubs were up to 81.9 percent to win this game. By the end of the top of the sixth, that was down to just 38.6 percent. The Cubs bottomed at 24.7 percent to win after the bottom of the seventh. Ryan Rolison’s scoreless eighth got them back about 5 percent. Pedro Ramirez’ double jumped them all of the way back to 47.1 percent. But when Pete Crow-Armstrong struck out for the second out, it was all of the way down to 25.6 percent again. Unsurprisingly, the Shaw bases loaded walk (.278) was the Play of the Game. The Nico Hoerner hit by pitch for the go ahead run was worth slightly less (.248). Those two reaches turned a loss into a probable win.
As is nearly always the case in a low-scoring, one-run win, just about every contribution was vital to the win. So for today at least, I’m ditching three positives. I’m going with a series of hat tips instead. I’m going chronological and not in any order of importance. Michael Busch for a first-inning homer. I hadn’t realized it was the first ever run Paul Skenes gave up at Wrigley Field until they said it on the broadcast. I know they had beaten him a few times in Pittsburgh, the two wins in games Colin Rea has started against him the last two years front and center in my head. That had to put the Cubs squarely in the right head space.
Pedro Ramirez led off the third with a solo homer of his own. He also had the double leading off the eighth that led to the decisive rally. Pedro had a huge impact on this game and I imagine him having a good shot to win the Player of the Game vote.
While those two were giving the Cubs the lead, Clay Holmes was terrific. He ended up one out short of a quality start. Nico Hoerner appeared to possibly get caught thinking about trying to turn a very difficult double play and that let the inning get away. Even if you leave the sequencing as is, Holmes leaves 2-2 after six otherwise. Of course, maybe they work Ryan O’Hearn differently if it is one on and one out rather than two on with no outs.
Jacob Webb came into a bases-loaded situation to get out of the sixth, then worked a scoreless seventh. Let me say it this way, you hate your circle of trust, but also Jacob Webb is pretty darn close to the circle, using what you’ve got.
Both Seiya Suzuki and Matt Shaw taking huge walks in pinch-hit plate appearance in the eighth. Seiya’s loaded the bases and Shaw’s tied the game. It’s hard to be patient, I’m sure with the game on line. But they both had quality plate appearances and it turned the game in favor of the Cubs. Nico Hoerner had the decisive hit by pitch and I was a little surprised the Pirates didn’t at least argue that he made no attempt to move. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that called unless the ump calls it right away. But I didn’t think Nico even flinched on it.
Ryan Rolison bridged the eighth and the ninth innings, retiring five of the six batters he faced. He’s pretty securely your first lefty out of the pen. Rolison and Webb have saved the Cub season. As bad as the bullpen has been, without those two, this may have gotten really ugly. We’d all rather have the Brewers or Padres bullpen to call on to close one out, but at this point you can only play the hand you were dealt. To that end, Ryan Zeferjahn faced one batter to finish this and he ended it with a strikeout looking. Just the kind of arm you hope to have out of your pen. Zeferjahn was one of two deadline additions that will probably be best assessed in the future and not in this postseason. Though obviously, he could make a huge impact this postseason and start firmly on the right foot.
For most trade deadline acquisitions or if you are a team like the Dodgers, at the end of the day you are evaluated based on how far you go into the postseason. Kyle Tucker had a rough season for the Dodgers. If he’s a key part of a championship run, none of that matters. Zeferjahn had a rough start as a Cub. If he closes out a win that lets the Cubs advance a round in the postseason, that’s going to be what mattered in the end.
Kudos to this team. After the last loss in Milwaukee, I talked about this. This team is resilient. This team doesn’t believe they’ll just get demolished by the Brewers. They know the Brewers are damn good. But they’ll believe with a break or two they would have won the season series and that they could definitely win a playoff series. It won’t be easy, but I trust this team to not play at a disadvantage against anyone. They’ve beaten all of the best teams. Swept a series from the Dodgers. Beat the Padres. Crushed the Phillies. This team may not win, but it won’t back down.
Game 149, September 12: Cubs 4, Pirates 3 (83-66)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Matt Shaw (.269). 0-0, BB, RBI
- Hero: Pedro Ramirez (.251). 2-3, HR, 2B, RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.205) 1-3, HBP, RBI
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Clay Holmes (-.179). 5.2 IP, 27 BF, 5 H, 4 BB, 3 R (2 ER), 6 K
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.159). 0-4
- Kid: Tyrone Taylor (-.144). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Ryan O’Hearn’s three-run homer with one out in the sixth gave the Pirates a one run lead. (.340)
Cubs Play of the Game: Matt Shaw’s walk with the bases loaded that tied the game. (.278)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 148 Winner: Shōta Imanaga received 24 of 57 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +27
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24.5
- Michael Conforto +17
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Seiya Suzuki -15
- Nico Hoerner -15
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -18.5
Scoreboard Watching: Padres win (2.5 back of Cubs). Diamondbacks and Phillies both played late.
Up Next: The third and final game of the series. With Saturday’s win, the Cubs secured the season series with the Pirates for the 12th(!!!) consecutive season. The Pirates have had some struggles, but certainly not 12 years of struggles. These two wins push them below .500 on the season. Matthew Boyd (8-4, 4.03) gets the start for the Cubs. Boyd is just 2-3 with a 4.98 over his last seven. He’s lost two of his last three starts, allowing seven earned runs over 18.1 innings. None of them have been terrible, but just not as sharp. He beat the Pirates in July in Pittsburgh, allowing a run on seven hits and three walks over seven innings.
Righty Bubba Chandler (7-9, 4.25) starts for the Pirates. Chandler is heading in the right direction. He’s 4-1 with a 3.38 over his last seven. And he won his last start, allowing four hits, no walks and two runs against the White Sox in Chicago. He struck out eight. He’s made two starts but recorded no decisions against the Cubs. He’s allowed seven runs in only 10.1 innings of work. So the Cubs have hit him well.
I always love to check back with Fangraphs. The Pirates starter was scratched on Friday. That made the Cubs about a 56-44 favorite in that one. They’ve also revised this Sunday game up to 54-46. So they do now like the Cubs to finish this sweep, even before the win over Skenes is rolled into the equation. The model still loves the Cubs against the Braves, basically 55 percent or better for all three games. Obviously, the Braves front loaded their top starters to facing the Phillies this weekend in an effort to push towards a division title. The Fangraphs modeling has the Cubs back at 90 wins. Again, before today’s win is in there (it would have been 89, but this win over Skenes flipped one upside down).
After these last couple of days, Fangraphs now sees the Cubs with a better chance to reach the playoffs than the Phillies, but still see the Phillies as more likely to win the World Series. They basically have the Phillies at 7 percent to win it all, the Braves 6 and the Cubs 5. I have no problem with the modelling that suggests that. Fangraphs frames the best chances to win as Dodgers (27), Brewers (13), Yankees (10) and Rays (9.5). You can always find a nitpick, but none of that seems too crazy.
