Everyone loves to see the random reliever pop up and turn into something that is highly effective. From a fan’s point of view, the pitcher’s effectiveness can be turned into a weapon that may or may not be used in more leveraged situations to ride that hot streak as long as it will take him. For the team that is contending like the Phillies, they’re getting good work from a pitcher that is making the league minimum, letting them potentially cross something off their trade deadline wishlist.
Chase
Shugart has become that pitcher so far this year, taking a minor league deal in spring training and performing well to a spot in the Phillies’ bullpen that includes a climbing trust from the coaching staff in tight spots (0.27 aLI in his first seven appearances, 0.87 aLI in his last six appearances). His name probably didn’t ring many bells when he was brought in this offseason, but there were some interesting things with his profile that gave him some allure to the Phillies, things that he has continued to do this season. The first thing you notice is that sparkling 1.72 ERA since that is the kind of number we like to see in a reliever. Low ERA in the old days meant limiting damage, but we’re enlightened. We know that there is a lot more to it than that, which is why we look at other things.
For me personally, there are two things I look at for relievers: is he allowing inherited runners to score, and is he leaving his outing with the team in a better spot than when he came in? The first question is an easy one to answer. He’s had five inherited runners during his appearances and has only allowed one of them to score. That seems like a good number and it is, but there is a bit more context to it. Managers often time tier their relievers in different ways, but one is which pitchers do they trust with a “dirty inning”, one where there is trouble on the basepaths and in the batter’s box. Seeing that over his 13 games he’s pitched in, he’s only entered with runners on five times, the team may be looking to avoid those dirtier situations with Shugart. They’re also bringing him in when they’re behind, with ten of his thirteen appearances coming when the team is behind.
That’s totally fine since teams need pitchers to do that. There has to be someone, or multiple someones, in a team’s bullpen that come in when the team is down so as not to use higher leverage arms all the time. Shugart thus far has done a nice job of making sure things don’t get out of hand, which brings us to our second question of does he leave the team in a better spot than when he left. This is a bit more difficult to ascertain, but we can look at two things.
One of my more favorite advanced stats is RE24, which can best be explained with Baseball Reference’s definition:
Given the bases occupied/out situation, how many runs did the pitcher save in the resulting play. Compared to average, so 0 is average, and above 0 is better than average.
When the pitcher came in, did he save the team a lot of runs? Shugart has excelled in that thus far, his 5.4 mark ranking 33rd among 200 relievers who qualify here. Another thing to look at are his situational wins, best described as WPA/LI (wins probability added divided by leverage index). Shugart’s 0.3 number for this doesn’t look so great, but considering the leader for the category is Rico Garcia (1.1), Shugart’s number looks a lot better, tied for 43rd out of over 350 pitchers. He’s done a good job of making sure things don’t get out of hand. He’s done with stuff that isn’t overwhelming, but gets the job done. He’s been good at making sure he’s throwing strikes with a good, not great, fastball, keeping the baseball on the ground (though with this defense, that’s a questionable strategy), yet still doing so without generating a ton of whiffs.
That’s where the temptation comes in. While Shugart has done a good job at limiting damage when he’s been in, his stuff doesn’t really show someone who should be a getting higher leverage spots with regularity. As I said before, teams need pitchers to take this middle innings when the game isn’t particularly in question. Shugart has done this with aplomb, performing his job to the best of his capabilities. His stuff that he is using does suggest that maybe he should just stay there in that spot, not really one that can get out of a jam based on his pure arsenal as it is. While it’s not bad, it’s built more pitching to contact as opposed to generating swings and misses. This is evidenced by his ranking in the 34th percentile for hitters chasing and the 17th percentile for hitters swinging and missing.
Shugart has been a good addition to the team, a cheap option to help with middle innings. Let’s just make sure that he stays in that spot.
