Braves thurston’ for a victory to avoid Phillies sweep

Well, that was heart-breaking. Two nights in a row, the Braves have lost yet more one-run games.

But they get to toss Hurston Waldrep out there today. It’s not much hyperbole to say Waldrep’s two-start debut in 2024 was an unmitigated disaster. He struck out 3 guys, walked 8, and gave up 3 home runs in 7 innings, which was good (?) enough for a 16.71 ERA. The former first-round pick looked anything but. 2025, however, has been much better over 30 innings. While the 0.90 ERA is certainly not sustainable,

he’s now striking out more than he’s walking, and he’s been able to avoid the long ball. Again, not all of that is sustainable and his K rate is just a tad over 7 per 9 innings, but we can certainly work with this.

The pitch mix has completely changed for Waldrep. His splitter has always (and continues to be) his splitter, but he’s made a number of changes. He exchanged his four-seamer for a cutter. He’s dropped his usage of a slider and increased the usage of his curveball. And there’s a sinker now involved. It seems like a lot of tinkering, but some of it has been returning to old pitches (especially the use of the curveball).

The Statcast information looks a lot better. If there is a warning sign in here, it’s the lack of whiffs. It’s currently sitting around league-average, and that likely means the K rate will tick up a little bit. Ultimately, that shiny ERA is going to go up, but sometimes, it just takes a little good luck and some confidence to get a guy going. Mike Minor and Kyle Wright both, for some recent examples, had some initial struggles before settling down and making it work.

Opposing Waldrep is Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo’s results are a bit flip-flopped from both his career and from Waldrep’s season. His 4.23 ERA belies a 3.35 xFIP, and his numbers have held pretty steady from the past few seasons. The lefty still throws hard, strikes out a little over 10 per 9 innings, and keeps walks around the league average. His LOB% has dipped below 70%, which is probably mostly causing the ERA to be a little higher than we’d expect from someone with his numbers.