That’s a wrap on the 2025 regular season. 162 games completed. For a while now, 162 and done has been the way things have been. Not this time though. The postseason awaits. The Cubs end the regular season with
three straight wins and four of five. That’s the half-full glass. The half-empty one says that the Cubs won just four of their last 10. So much of an effective picture relies on how you crop and frame the photo.
Of course, both things are true. The Cubs won four of their last five. That’s real. The Cubs got a few good pitching performances. And they got an awful lot of good ones over those last five days. Michael Busch had one of the best games that any Cub had all year on Saturday. Seiya Suzuki homered in each of the last four games. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a couple of homers. Three very important Cub bats stepped up as the season was coming to an end. Those other five games definitely happened to. You can’t escape it. In those, the bats largely disappeared. When the bats did get a little something going, they’d come up empty once the runners were in scoring position.
Here’s where we landed. The things that could lead the Cubs to a Wild Card series win showed up this weekend. At the risk of reviving disastrous quotes in Chicago history, the pieces are in place. Save one, of course. Not having Cade Horton for the series is an enormous loss. But overall the team is in a fairly good place. Matthew Boyd hasn’t been as dominant as he was early in the season, but the stuff looks good. Shōta Imanaga has been overly victimized by home runs. But the numbers overall aren’t bad. Largely because he rarely walks a hitter, his WHIP is borderline elite. When he keeps the ball in the park, he’s pretty hard to beat.
So the things are there. Good and bad. Boyd and Imanaga have been less dominant than they were earlier this year. Jameson Taillon is coming in fairly hot at least. But Boyd and Imanaga are largely the keys. The Cubs best formula is shut down the opposition the first time through the order, the offense jump out early and the game flows from there. That’s the most common “shape” of a Cub victory. Some teams deliver a lot of come from behind type wins. This team is generally a front runner. I believe if Imanaga and Boyd go, the Cubs win this series. That’s not a huge limb I’m out on. But if the Cubs get decent starts, not necessarily shutdown starts, I believe the offense will score some runs and the bullpen will hold.
If the starting isn’t strong, I don’t think the Cubs are likely to win slugfest type games. The Padres offense is explosive. This is going to be a tough series. But one of the Padre weaknesses has been against left-handed pitching. One of the better bats against lefties is hurt. There is an opportunity here. How great would it be to in some sense exercise the demons of my favorite Cub season (non-Championship)?
I’m going to be fairly brief again today. The post-mortem on the season, all of the stats that I track, will be run down at some later date. Right now, we set the table for the first of the postseason games. We can’t ignore this last game. So we’ll hit the high notes, but then we’ll clear the deck and await the postseason.
Pitch Counts:
- Cardinals: 105, 29 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 127, 33 BF
Unsurprisingly, without either team playing for much of anything, this was a low scoring affair. Both teams were in the “green” zone. The Cardinals threw only 13.125 pitches per inning and the Cubs 14.11. Teams with PPI that low tend to do pretty well. I set my bar there, because a starter who keeps it under 15 pitches per inning can often get the opportunity to pitch into the seventh inning. Javier Assad didn’t finish six for the Cubs. He threw 14.82 PPI for his day of work.
Each team allowed six hits, the Cubs walked one and the Cardinals zero. The big difference in this game was the fifth inning homer by Seiya Suzuki. The Cardinals did have a double and a triple, but didn’t cash in either. The second run was assisted by a passed ball and was charged as an unearned run. The bottom line is that both teams pitched well enough to win. The Cubs got one hit with RISP and one homer and those are two outcomes the Cardinals didn’t manage.
I’m not sure that either Michael Soroka or Jordan Wicks make the postseason roster. Soroka was used like a middle reliever down the stretch. He’s surely in the running for the last spot on the playoff roster. For Wicks, we are reminded that he was a first-round pick and still shows flashes of some potential. Does he eventually find some life at the big league level as a multi-inning reliever? Surely not the career anyone imagined when he was a first round choice. But also, relievers are increasingly valuable in the modern game.
Three Stars:
- Javier Assad threw 5.1 innings and allowed three hits and a walk. He struck out six. Justin Steele is the headline loss for the 2025 season. But this is a clear reminder that Assad was a big loss too? Is Assad in the mix for the roster? One would have to say not. Perhaps for the Division Series if the Cubs reach that point. But one wouldn’t think he’d be available on any level before Thursday. I’d think you’d have to focus on guys who have value in those first two games.
- Seiya Suzuki had the solo homer that was ultimately the winning run.
- Jordan Wicks. Three innings, 12 batters faced, three hits, four strikeouts.
Game 162, September 28: Cubs 2, Cardinals 0 (92-70)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Javier Assad (.313). 5.1 IP, 19 BF, 3 H, BB, 0 ER, 6 K (W 4-1)
- Hero: Jordan Wicks (.238). 3 IP, 12 BF, 3 H, 4 K (Sv 1)
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.102). 1-3, HR, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Willi Castro (-.082). 0-3, DP
- Goat: Kyle Tucker (-.078). 0-3
- Kid: Michael Busch (-.064). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Seiya Suzuki (.147)’s homer leading off the fifth inning. (.147)
*Cardinals Play of the Game: Thomas Saggese singled leading off the seventh inning against Jordan Wicks. (.071)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Michael Busch received 218 of 220 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +27
- Jameson Taillon +24
- Matthew Boyd +20
- Michael Busch +`9.17
- Cade Horton +18
- Willi Castro -17
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -22.33
- Carson Kelly -26
- Seiya Suzuki -27
I’ve noted a few times that Kyle Tucker was going to win the Rizzo Award and now that is 100 percent official. On the bottom end, Seiya Suzuki finishes dead last. Still a little odd, given that he led the team in runs batted in. RBI tend to factor favorably in WPA.
This will be my one deep dive in this piece. Some Seiya stats (not including Sunday):
- 0 out: .828 OPS (9 HR/28 RBI)
- 1 out: .745 (8/34)
- 2 out: .831 (14/40)
- RISP: .997 (12/76)
- 2 out and RISP: 1.050 (5/28)
- Last and Close: .610 (3/9)
- Tie Game: .670 (7/28)
- Ahead: .931 (7/26)
- Behind: .755 (6/25)
Seiya hit will in almost every situation. At the end of the day, I guess he finishes last because he wasn’t great in late and close situations. There were 80 such PA. He was pretty good in big situations. You don’t get to 100 RBI if you don’t do well in big situations. It’s probably a little bit of a fluke that he wasn’t as good in the biggest situations. This whole thing just feels like bad luck/sequencing for Seiya.
Up Next: The postseason begins. Matthew Boyd is the likely starter for Game 1, though it’s been hinted the Cubs could use an opener for him. I’d certainly have rather had Cade, but there’s no question that without Horton that Boyd should be the guy. There will be a ton of coverage ahead of the game.
