The first game in a football season always inspires overreactions. Wins inflate unreasonable expectations, especially when the opponent is a traditionally solid P4 program getting some votes for top 25. Add the emotional reactions immediately following any game result. Winning always feels great, and this one feels amazing, a cool drink of water for a fan base that’s been wandering in a football desert for the last 51 weeks.
Slept on it tries to get some distance from those sorts of overreactions.
Sifting through the results, we take a look at what worked, what seems replicable moving forward, what might be a problem down the road, and what we might have learned from other games about some of the teams on our schedule. It will be a recurring feature through the season. Meanwhile, as the rest of the college football world seems a bit shocked at the result, UNC fans had reasons to be a touch more optimistic about their prospects heading into the game than the conventional wisdom suggested.
That was impressive
Defense! Last time a defense held a Sonny Dykes offense to 10 points or less was Oct. 21, 2023, against 18th ranked Kansas State. TCU averaged over 30 points a game every season since 2021, when they averaged 28.7. Even more impressively, UNC pitched a shutout after the first quarter. UNC seemed to get a read on what TCU wanted to do and made the necessary adjustments.
Defensive line depth: UNC started working with five down linemen situationally to shut down TCU’s perimeter run game, and it worked spectacularly after halftime. It’s probably UNC’s best position group, and UNC got as many of them onto the field as they could. The defensive line rotation collectively recorded 319 snaps across eight players for the game. Xavier Lewis, a walk-on freshman last season, was on the field for 54 snaps, and his performance will have game announcers noting his presence the rest of the season: 7 tackles (3rd on the team), 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 1 QB hurry. He was a game wrecker Saturday, exactly the sort of complement to Melkart Abou Jaoude this defense needed.
Explosive! UNC had five plays of more than 15 yards in the first quarter alone. All of them happened in the passing game. Not coincidentally, those plays fueled UNC’s two scoring drives. For the game, Jelani Thurman had 94 yards on four catches alone, all of them in big spots. Explosive plays were notably absent from UNC’s offense last season.
Fourth Downs: UNC was awful on fourth downs last season, both sides of the ball. This game: UNC was 1-1 on offense and 4-5 on defense, winning 5 of 6 first downs overall. That was the biggest difference in this game.
Good coaching alert: The offense converted a third and thirteen in TCU territory by giving themselves two downs. The Heels got half of it with a Magill run up the middle. Then, on fourth and seven, UNC got 18 more yards over the middle to Shipp. UNC scored its lone touchdown one play later. This sort of aggression, trust, and execution wasn’t evident much last season on either offense or defense.
The defense, meanwhile, stuffed four TCU fourth down attempts, two of them deep in UNC territory late in the second half. On the first of those, TCU tried to impose its will needing two yards, running straight at the defense with no motion or other feints. UNC stuffed it easily. For the second, on what would be TCU’s final drive, Craig tried to beat UNC to the edge, panicked, and threw an errant pass towards Jeremy Scott.
Pass defense takes a big step forward: TCU did little through the air, and credit for much of that has to go to UNC’s defense. Jaiden Patterson shut down Jeremy Scott, TCU’s most dangerous receiver after Jonathan Dwyer’s foot injury kept him out of the game. UNC’s pass defense faced 12 attempts on 3rd and 4th downs, allowing TCU to move the chains only three times and holding TCU to three yards per attempt. That’s massive improvement on last year’s numbers, although only a one game sample.
Tap the brakes
UNC’s offense scored 13 points, only three after the first quarter. We’ll see what TCU’s defense looks like over the next few weeks, but the Horned Frogs lost an important presumed starter at safety the last week of camp. Jacob Fields was dismissed from the team after reportedly assaulting an offensive player after practice. Scoring 13 points on nine drives would be 1.44 points per drive; 2025’s horrific offense averaged 1.58. Given the opening game and the wet field, it’s probably safe to assume better execution and results moving forward. However, similar offensive output isn’t going to win many games.
Turnovers: Trech Kekahuna and Ben Hall fumbled, losing both, an unpleasant reminder of some of the ball security issues of last season. Edwards had three balls thrown into tight spaces and tipped, with a second TCU defender in position to grab each one of them. Fortunately, all three hit the grass.
The offensive line was good enough, but it wasn’t necessarily good. TCU had three sacks and four tackles for loss, meaning seven of UNC’s 57 plays went backwards. UNC’s three running backs managed 94 yards on 22 carries, which is reasonable efficiency, but the run game produced zero explosive plays. TCU’s replacing two linebackers and a safety playing in the NFL now, plus the loss of Fields. UNC’s starting five linemen played every offensive snap, meaning we know nothing about depth.
The defense went to some heavy looks to defend the early success TCU had on perimeter runs, and TCU couldn’t take advantage. That might be where missing Dwyer hurt the Horned Frogs the most. We’ll see what notes, if any, Clemson takes away from that game tape.
How good will TCU prove to be? That was TCU’s first game in a new offense. TCU QB Jaden Craig was in his first start against FBS competition, and Craig frequently put his team behind the chains with poor throws to open targets. TCU attempted nothing over the top, never testing the coverage downfield. The defense spent all camp assuming a starter at safety that’s now facing aggravated assault charges on a teammate. Questions about the incident led to TCU banning a local newspaper. That in turn raises locker room and program management concerns. It’s hard to know much of that game can be attributed to UNC and how much to TCU. We’ll find out in the coming weeks.
The Narrative
The game seemed to affect people’s perceptions of TCU more than UNC. In some ways, that’s understandable. Both offenses combined for two offensive touchdowns and two field goals. TCU shot itself in the foot numerous times. The game was a rain-soaked slopfest. UNC fans can legitimately argue UNC won it. TCU fans can legitimately argue TCU blew it.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ predicted UNC to maybe have an average offense, with more confidence for an above average defense. The actual game result could justify that. David Hale’s suggestion that, “I thought after this game a coach was gonna be on the brink of being fired and I stand by that. Have just swapped which coach,” seems a touch hyperbolic, although TCU fan reaction to the game on social media would support the notion.
Game one overreactions, folks.
Looking ahead to Clemson
Yes, taking ETSU for granted as a win seems warranted. UNC appears to have survived Dublin with no crucial injuries, and now UNC has a bye week and then ETSU to prep for Clemson. Clemson, meanwhile, lost a lot of talent to the NFL draft from an underachieving team. Dabo Sweeney thinks rehiring Chad Morris can fix his offense, and if that “back to the future” hire reminds you a bit of Mack Brown trying to resuscitate 2005 Gene Chizik, it does me as well.
Can UNC open this season 3-0? It’s not likely, but it’s no longer a laughable pipe dream. This team has three weeks to take lessons learned during live fire in Dublin and to take aim at the Tigers. We’ll talk more about it during the week preceding the Clemson game, but I picked UNC to win that game. I’m feeling more confident in that bold prediction after game one.
Quick thoughts on future opponents based on what we saw last weekend
Virginia: The Cavaliers went into their game against the Wolfpack down sixteen players out with injury, including four wide receivers. Virginia ran all over State, passed the ball only 11 times, harassed CJ Bailey into two turnovers, and thoroughly dominated. Watching Pribula run the ball 15 times, you wonder how he holds up over the course of the season.
NC State: That was as embarrassing as UNC’s no-show against TCU last season. Will Dave Doeren be coaching State by 11/28?
