Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 20 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, TX
- Spread: TCU (-6.5)
- Over/under: 64.5
- All-time series: TCU leads, 53-43-7
- Last meeting: SMU 66, TCU 42 — September 21, 2024
- Current streak: SMU, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
College football loses a longtime, storied series between two close-in-proximity rivals this weekend. The TCU Horned Frogs and SMU Mustangs battled 103 times for supremacy of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, dating back to 1896 — back when there were only 45 states in US. On Saturday, the flame finally burns out on the tradition… at least for the foreseeable future.
There are no more scheduled meetings between SMU and TCU after Saturday afternoon’s showdown in Fort Worth. Thus, the opportunity to
hoist the grand prize of the Iron Skillet once the clock hits zeros is more meaningful than ever. And while the series is evaporating, the caliber of the opponents is as strong as ever. TCU and SMU both competed in conference championships and the College Football Playoff within the last three seasons, and a win Saturday would better position one of the rivals at another CFP run.
SMU Mustangs outlook
SMU (2-1, 0-0 ACC) already chalked up a loss this year, losing the ranking that stood beside its name for the majority of the 2024 season. But this is not unfamiliar territory for the Mustangs as they entered last year’s Iron Skillet with an identical record — burdened by a close home loss to Big 12 competition. SMU used this game as a significant confidence-booster, outlasting TCU 66-42 in the highest-scoring installment of the rivalry to rewrite the script of its season.
Last year’s meeting was in Dallas, but the setting shifts to Fort Worth in 2025. The road is typically no issue for the Mustangs which ride the nation’s longest regular season road win streak at 11 games — with the 2023 Iron Skillet in Fort Worth serving as the most recent loss.
In order for SMU to provide that road disruption again, the offense must be out in full force. Kevin Jennings, who was named the full-time starter during 2024 Iron Skillet week, returns as the Mustangs’ quarterback. Jennings has showcased his offensive firepower with 260+ yards in each start this year, firing on an efficient 70.5 completion rate. However, the quarterback strives for more. Limiting interceptions (one thrown in each game) and reinvigorating his mobility are areas that can make SMU’s high-flying offense even more potent.
Another dimension SMU hopes to add offensively is wide receiver Jordan Hudson, a former Horned Frog who suffered a shoulder injury on the team’s first snap of the season. Hudson, the returning leader in receiving yards form 2024, is practicing once again with his fourth Iron Skillet looming. In his absence, SMU witnessed promising development from 4-star true freshman Jalen Cooper, who ranks second on the team with 230 yards and two touchdowns. Stepping up as the premier option is deep threat Romello Brinson. Brinson is the FBS’s seventh-leading receiver, collecting 314 yards and three touchdowns on 15 receptions thus far.
Rhett Lashlee offenses have traditionally maintained balance with the run game, and this year’s group is no exception. UCLA transfer T.J. Harden has acclimated nicely to the Dallas climate, racking up a combined 211 yards and five touchdowns on a 6.2 average the past two weeks. Harden is susceptible to explosive runs, oftentimes created by a pair of All-ACC selections on SMU’s line (Logan Parr and PJ Williams).
Defense has been a mixed bag this year for the Mustangs. SMU struggled mightily in the Week 2 game at Baylor, yielding 440 passing yards to Sawyer Robertson — which contributed to a squandered 14-point lead in the last six minutes. There are several improvements the Mustangs must make on the Scott Symons’ led defense, which was excellent in the past two years. One involves health, as starting linebackers Alex Kilgore and Zakye Barker suffered injuries in the first two weeks. Downfield coverage is another facet SMU aims to rectify, especially after Missouri State threw for 275 and appeared in SMU territory on seven of its first eight possessions. Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses are the veteran safeties looking to counter an effective TCU aerial attack.
One quality that remains a strength of this unit is defensive line pressure. SMU manufactured one of the greatest sack machines in college football last year, but the Mustangs replaced their entire d-line this offseason. Cam Robertson and Purdue transfer Jeffrey M’ba have made it their mission to ensure there is no drop-off, and the two combine for 4.5 sacks on the season, while SMU averages 3.0 per game as a whole.
Lastly, SMU must solve its kicking woes — especially if this game comes down to the wire. Collin Rogers was benched in Week 3 after missing three attempts vs. Baylor, and Sam Keltner took his place but went 0-of-1 last week. Overall, the Mustangs are 1-of-5 on field goals this year.
TCU Horned Frogs outlook
TCU (2-0, 0-0 Big 12) still sits on the fringes of the rankings after a 2-0 start, highlighted by a national primetime demolition of North Carolina in Week 1. The National Championship appearance was three years ago, but since the start of 2024, TCU has quietly won 11 of 15 games under Sonny Dykes. The only real blowout the Horned Frogs suffered in that timespan was the 66-42 defeat at SMU in the prior year’s rivalry — and revenge is a dish they’d like to serve in a Skillet.
The Horned Frogs return starting quarterback Josh Hoover, who is off to an electrifying start to 2025. Hoover is averaging 310.5 passing yards per game on a 76.2 completion rate, showing off a 6-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio. It’s an excellent start to a Heisman campaign in a wide-open field, but SMU presents a step up in competition for the junior from Heath, TX.
Hoover’s success is greatly bolstered by an offensive line which hasn’t yielded a single sack through two games. Three returning starters are back from last year, while left tackle Ryan Hughes and left guard Cade Bennett are new to the lineup in 2025, and the result has been spectacular — not only in pass protection but for the run game as well.
The run game enters Saturday with a question mark, as prominent running back Kevorian Barnes’ status is unknown after suffering a lower leg injury in Week 3. Barnes is a bulldozer at the position, and the UTSA transfer’s aggressive running style gained him 113 yards and a touchdown on a 10.3 average at North Carolina. If Barnes is unable to go, Nate Palmer and Jeremy Payne may step up as the key cogs in the run game. Both are running well behind the o-line, gaining 6.8 and 5.2 yards per carry, respectively.
TCU has been renowned for excellent wide receiving corps since the 2022 CFP run, and this year’s squad is no exception. Jordan Dwyer, Joseph Manjack IV, and Eric McAlister form a lethal group in Fort Worth to guide this 45.0-points per game offense. Dwyer is the top dog at the moment, capturing 14 receptions for 225 yards and two touchdowns through two games. But Manjack, known for his iconic no-gloves, no-equipment look, and McAlister provide sure sets of hands to an offense which can inflict severe damage to secondaries.
While the Horned Frogs allowed 21 second half points to FCS Abilene Christian, the defense proved sharp in their lone FBS matchup against Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels. North Carolina famously went roughly 34 minutes of game time without completing a single pass against Andy Avalos’ aggressive unit. TCU forced five three-and-outs and three turnovers in a stellar all-around performance, notably dominating the battle in the trenches.
Devean Deal and Namdi Obiazor are the names to watch in the first two levels of the 3-3-5. The veteran Frogs combine for 22 tackles and two tackles for loss on the season and both apply significant backfield pressure — ranking first and third on the team in TFLs in 2024. Dialing of that pressure is a must for TCU in this matchup after leaving the 2024 Iron Skillet with zero sacks and one tackle behind the line of scrimmage.
Elsewhere on the defense, TCU still trots out longtime ballhawk Bud Clark. The sixth-year senior free safety is now up to 12 collegiate interceptions and two pick-sixes (one in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl vs. Michigan and the other in Week 1 at North Carolina), and SMU must be alert of his whereabouts in zone coverage at all times. The other starting safety Jamel Johnson also presents a danger as TCU’s top tackler with 14 takedowns on the season.
Prediction
This is everything a college football fan could want. It’s a bitter crosstown rivalry — albeit coming to a close — featuring high-powered offenses that excel in nearly every facet. It’s the second-straight Iron Skillet to pit Kevin Jennings and Josh Hoover as the quarterback battle, and both quarterbacks are consistent gunslingers for their DFW schools. Explosive playmaking by the receivers and long runs should be abundant in Fort Worth, while the defenses take a backseat.
The result likely plays out similarly to the Week 2 SMU vs. Baylor game. With the Frogs possessing the defensive edge — especially in the pass defense aspect — TCU exacts revenge on its homefield and secures the Iron Skillet for eternity… until the schools decide to reinvigorate the rivalry.
Prediction: TCU 42, SMU 35
