It’s a big weekend road trip for the Dawgs as they take on the Michigan Wolverines in the Big House in a 9 AM game. The UWDP staff have their picks below!
Andrew Berg (6-0 SU, 2-4 ATS)
How you handicap this game likely comes down to which numbers you trust and how much you trust them. The Husky defense grades out as above-average by SP+ and EPA metrics. It rates 16th best national in EPA/play against the rush. Having watched all the Husky games, how confident are you in their ability to stuff Justice Haynes? On the other side,
Michigan profiles as one of the best defenses in the country- 8th in defensive EPA per play. However, they gave up 31 points in a lopsided loss to USC last week and 27 against a so-so Nebraska offense earlier in the season. They have put up impressive defensive numbers against one (or zero) dimensional offenses, which is not what the Huskies will bring to the table. When you dig a little deeper into Washington’s defensive numbers, you can see where the problems arise. They are 111th in success rate on 3rd/4th downs, leading to being one of the worst teams in the country at giving up quality drives. Simply put, they just can’t get off the field. Michigan has a more diverse offense than last year, but they still like to grind out long drives. Unless Ryan Walters suddenly develops a lot more faith in his DBs to play single coverage and overloads the box and/or brings extra pressure, it just seems like the Michigan offensive line (28th best at pressure rate in passes, 5th best at Yards Before Contact on Runs) is going to establish a solid advantage. I think the Dawgs have enough offensive firepower to keep the game close. The talent gap is smaller than it was a year ago when the Huskies pulled out an upset win at home. If this game were at Husky Stadium and at a friendlier start time, I would probably pick UW. With a long road trip and an early start, I have Michigan pulling out a close win.
Michigan 28 – Washington 24
Max Vrooman (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS)
Coming into the season this looked like clearly one of Washington’s three toughest games. That is likely still true but it’s a pretty concrete #3. At this point in the year, just about every advanced stat you look at either has the Huskies as a better team or views them and Michigan as just about even. The Husky offense has shown that it will eventually score 20+ points on everyone but the truly elite defenses in the sport and that isn’t Michigan this year. The defense is still 10th in SP+ but they’ve given up 24+ points in each game they’ve played against a top 40 offense. Although it’s worth noting those have all been on the road. I’d have a lot more confidence if Carver Willis were healthy at LT and Demond will likely get sacked 3+ times but in between the pressure I expect him to find openings. Michigan is very blitz heavy and if their pass rush isn’t disciplined then there is the chance for Williams to escape with a lot of green grass in front of him. 5-star #1 recruit Bryce Underwood has been about what you’d expect from a true freshman which is to say not great. The talent is there and he has been great as a runner when he does take off but that hasn’t been often. Underwood’s Big-time throw rate is second to last in the P4 so he hasn’t proven he can throw it downfield in tight coverage. Whether Michigan can outscore Washington partly depends on the health of big play machine RB Justice Haynes who left Michigan’s last game injured. He’s expected to play but if he’s just 10% slower it would be a huge boon for the Huskies. I have had this marked down as a loss since the schedule first came out but was tempted to pick the Huskies. I’d feel better if Washington could get out to an early lead and force Michigan to try to throw their way back into it. That hasn’t been UW’s forte though with recent slow starts and a 9a PT gametime means another one is likely in the cards. I trust Demond to find some offense late but this time I’ll say it just isn’t quite enough.
Michigan- 27, Washington- 25
Mark Schafer (5-1 SU, 1-5 ATS)
On the one hand, Michigan is not the aggressive, soul crushing juggernaut they were 2 years ago. An offense with a true freshman at the helm and a defense that surrendered 31 points and 489 total yards against USC last week should make this a winnable game, but on the other hand, there’s the matter of 107,601 fans that are sure to be packing the Big House this weekend. Also the Dawgs are shorthanded at offensive line, but having said that, I think this is a very winnable game. However, the Huskies can’t afford to start slow, as they have done the past few weeks. Bryce Underwood, Jordan Marshall, and Semaj Morgan are the chief threats offensively and if Justice Haynes shakes off his injury from last week, he could flip the run game on its head, necessitating a great performance from the Husky front 7. Tacario Davis and Alex McLaughlin must be ready to shake the young Underwood and not let him get comfortable or confident. Offensively, Demond needs to continue what he has done all year and be that kind of dual threat that strikes fear into the hearts of the defense. We’ll see if he is at full strength, and if he continues his stretch of greatness. The run needs to be established early, and if it is and Jonah can look like the Jonah we saw the first 3 weeks, that’ll open up the play action pass game for Denzel who looks to feast on a Michigan defense reeling from a mediocre performance last week. All in all, this is a tough game, but a winnable one, and I’m counting on a few breaks going the Dawgs’ way and for them to leave the unfriendly confines of the Big House with a W.
Washington-28, Michigan-24
Raymond Lucas Jr. (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)
Michigan’s inability to have any success against USC does not inspire much confidence when it comes to being able to contain red-hot Demond Williams and the Huskies. It wasn’t just Jayden Maiava throwing for 265 yards and two touchdowns with just seven incompletions. It was backup running back King Miller racing for 158 yards and a score on 18 attempts. Washington has better versions of those players in Williams and Jonah Coleman. If this were a home game, there’d be no need for a “but” — but it isn’t.
Not only will the Huskies travel to the Big House, but this game will kick off at roughly noon in Ann Arbor, so 9 a.m. Pacific. These cross-country games have been a hazard for most teams in the conference, and a sleepy start for the Huskies would be a nightmare. Offensively, Michigan true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will look to get his squad back in the win column, and he’ll lean on wideout Andrew Marsh to get them there. He caught eight passes for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Trojans. He’ll look to replicate that production against a UW secondary that has not lived up to expectations thus far.
This game is absolutely massive for Washington. A win here makes the College Football Playoff far from a lofty goal, as it’s one of the toughest games remaining. The Huskies will see a much bigger spotlight follow them if they beat Michigan. My prediction? They will.
Michigan’s defense is declining at a bad time. Williams and Co. will take advantage and secure a significant road victory.
Washington 27, Michigan-20
Prediction Stats
Straight Up: Washington-2, Michigan-2
Against the Spread: Washington-2, Michigan-2
Average Score: Washington-26, Michigan-25
Let us know your prediction in the comments below!
