The Guardians have long been trying to solve their centerfield problem. Where are we in that process?
In the past decade, the Guardians have had one end up with 3 fWAR in centerfield – Myles Straw in that electric 2021 debut. Steven Kwan will probably JUST manage to break that streak with a strong finish. But, with Kwan set to hit free agency following the 2027 season, what’s the longterm future in this spot?
Option 1: Extend Steven Kwan
Analysis: For 2027, the Guardians can keep Kwan to play center,
and then let him walk for a comp pick at the end of the season if they don’t extend him. Currently, I think this is the most likely outcome for things. The Guardians should not and are not going to extend Kwan at a rate of $20 million per year, if that’s what Kwan is hoping for based on his yearly WAR output. I question if they’d even go $15 million per year. However, if Kwan, given age and comfortability, is interested in something like a 6/$75-80M, I could see that being realistic. It’s important to note that there’s a fair level risk in this for the Guardians. If Kwan breaks down physically and can’t continue to be an elite defensive outfielder, his value will tank. He seems to have figured out how to translate his contact quantity over quality approach into something that works at the plate, and I do think that’s a reality some team will be willing to bet on in free agency. But, should the Guardians? An open question.
Option 2: Petey Halpin or Kahlil Watson
Analysis: Both Halpin (24 years old) and Watson (23 years old) are excellent defenders and speedy baserunners who likely can’t hit worth a lick. Halpin’s current 87 wRC+ against RHP seems to be about what you can expect from him. I think there is still some hope for Watson, but he will have to get his chase rate from the bigs (36%) and zone-contact rate (77%) more in line with the 26% chase rate and 82% zone-contact rate he has shown in Triple-A. Additionally, Watson is pretty unlikely to be a good hitter vs. LHP so his defense will have to carry his value as a full-time centerfielder. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Guardians trade Kwan in November and give Watson a first look as the centerfielder in 2027… but I also don’t think anyone is likely to enjoy that experience. Watson is a fun player who has a lot of competitive drive, though, so I am rooting for his ability to destroy baseballs and play good defense to compensate for the contact issues. I’d like to see Watson replace Halpin on the current roster for the rest of 2026, but I know the team wants Watson to get full-time reps as long as possible (not a concern for Halpin who is a clear 4th/5th outfielder).
Option 3: Aaron Walton
Analysis: I HOPE that Walton is the answer in center by the end of 2027 (should there be a season, of course). So far, in Double-A at the age of 22, Walton has a 124 wRC+ with a 23.7/14.4 K/BB%. He hits the ball HARD and plays good defense in center, and he’s right-handed – shocker! Contact is the question here with a 77% contact rate, but his swinging strike rate has consistently lowered in his second year as a professional and is sitting at 8.3% in Akron. That’s a BIG deal for him. If he can sustain it and start to consistently show the power he showed in A-ball levels, Walton will start to appear on more than just FanGraphs’ top 100 list and push his way to Columbus to start 2027. He is also a pulled-air guy, getting solid numbers there so far as a professional, and he has even splits vs. RHP/LHP. But, it’s important to note that contact is a concern here and has been since he was drafted. A promising start but there is more to prove.
Option 4: Jaison Chourio
Analysis: Chourio is 21 years old and his age is the biggest factor still working towards his inclusion on this list. He has a 107 wRC+ at Akron with a 20.4/13.7 K/BB%, a 79% contact rate and only an 8.9% swinging-strike rate. He’s a line drive-groundball guy who is plate-discipline/contact over power. Defense is tough to evaluate in the minors, but it looks like he can probably stick in center, which is his best path to the bigs. He seems to be a better hitter from the left-side of the plate but has shown enough ability vs. LHP to seemingly make switch-hitting a viable MLB option. I am not a big believer in Chourio but his brother is good and he’s still young, so it’s stilll possible he breaks out by the end of this season or sometime next year and puts himself on the map as the future centerfielder.
Option 5: Angel Genao or Travis Bazzana
Analysis: If you believe in Brayan Rocchio as the shortstop of the future, either Genao or Bazzana have to move positions. I don’t think Bazzana’s arm plays in center, but, hey, they trotted Kipnis out there. If they wanted Genao to play center, he’d be good there, but it’s probably a waste of his skills as a middle-infielder. If Rocchio continues to have a disastrous second-half, don’t be surprised to see Rocchio moved to a utility infielder role and Genao and Bazzana become your double-play combo. BUT, a Bazzana move to left is also possible, leaving Rocchio and Genao up the middle. I don’t think it’s particularly likely either of these players become your centerfielder, though both have the speed and athleticism to make it work (only Genao has the arm, though).
Option 6: A Trade Acquisition or Free Agent Signing
Analysis: LOL. Centerfielders are expensive to acquire and sign so I don’t see this one happening. In free agency, Daulton Varsho looks like the best option? Fancy your chances of trading for Jose Siri (and hoping this season is real) or Oneil Cruz? Just seems entirely unrealistic.
Overall, I think it’s helpful to have Kwan for 2027, which will likely be the end of his peak. By the end of the season, the team can hope that either Watson, Walton or Chourio have made a compelling case for themselves to be the heir apparent in centerfield.
