Football karma came for Michigan on Saturday. Three weeks and one second earlier, the Wolverines came away with one of the most improbable victories in program history. Three days ago, Michigan was on the wrong side of one of the more improbable defeats.
For seasoned Michigan fans, the pain is nothing new. For over a century, this team has always found new and inventive ways to lose in the most excruciating ways imaginable. The safety against Chicago in 1905 (I know you remember that one), Mike Lantry’s
missed field goals in 1973 and 1974 (even though the kick was good in ‘74), the Miracle at Michigan in 1994, the A-Train inexplicably fumbling against Northwestern in 2001, Appalachian State in 2007, the missed two-point conversion against Ohio State in 2013, “Trouble with the snap” in 2015, “J.T. was short” the following year, the blowout losses to Ohio State in 2018 and 2019, Kenneth Walker running over, around, and through the Wolverines in 2021, and TCU, bigger underdogs than Iowa a few days ago, upsetting Michigan in the 2022 College Football Playoff all come to mind.
Now that I have brought up more trauma than your childhood, where does this loss fall? Firstly, this game felt more like a Michigan State game than an Iowa game. To neutral fans, this will sound weird, but for Michigan fans, you know what I’m getting at. This game had flukey tipped passes, untimely penalties, and an overwhelming sense of doom. But in terms of the box score, this game brought me back to Happy Valley in 2019 – both losses, both decided on the final play, both self-inflicted.
Michigan vs. Iowa (2026)
- Final Score: 20-19
- Total Yards: UM: 429 Iowa: 285
- First Downs: UM: 21 Iowa: 16
- Turnovers: UM: 1 Iowa: 0
- Penalties: UM: 8 Iowa: 5
- TOP: UM: 34:29 Iowa: 25:31
Michigan vs. Penn State (2019)
- Final Score: 28-21
- Total Yards: UM: 417 PSU: 283
- First downs: UM: 26 PSU: 14
- Turnovers: UM: 1 PSU: 0
- Penalties: UM: 8 PSU: 5
- TOP: UM: 37:45 PSU: 22:15
Seven years ago, after falling behind 21-0, Michigan rallied in the second half and found themselves on the Penn State three-yard line, facing fourth-and-goal with a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. At the snap, Shea Patterson evades the rusher and finds wide receiver Ronnie Bell working back off his slant route to uncover for his quarterback for what should have been a signature Michigan moment. Even when the ball was on the ground, it was hard to process. He… dropped it? The ball hit Bell between the numbers, slid between his arms, and tumbled to the grass. Penn State would ice the game three plays later.
If we want to keep the comparisons within the confines of these two teams, the aftershocks of 2016 could be felt when the dust settled in Ann Arbor. Ten years ago, Michigan failed to salt the game away on three plays, punted, Devin Bush committed a 15-yard facemask penalty, and Iowa connected on a game-winning field goal to upset the Wolverines, 14-13.
Every loss hurts, but in these games, where Michigan is clearly the better team, and whether it’s dropped passes, missed assignments, special teams miscues, coaching tactics, or Hall-of-Fame dumbass penalties, the pain is amplified. In 2019, the karma gods came for Michigan after escaping Army in double overtime and never leading until extra time. This time, the debt was repaid to Western Michigan.
But it wasn’t all bad.
Buried beneath the fold is the fact that Michigan’s offense took significant strides across the board, despite what the final score may lead you to believe. Quarterback Bryce Underwood was sharp, completing 17/28 for 276 yards (over 300 yards of total offense), two touchdowns, and one interception that wasn’t his fault. And mind you, this is against a Phil Parker-led defense. A defense that J.J. McCarthy never threw for more than 155 yards against in two tries. A number Underwood eclipsed in the first half. Congruently, Michigan had two 100-yard receivers for the first time in four years and the rushing attack began to find some daylight and consistency with a reworked offensive line (the Ewing Theory committee has scheduled a meeting to discuss Andrew Sprague).
Does Michigan need to clean up penalties, execute better in the red zone, and perhaps be more aggressive with the game on the line? Absolutely, particularly regarding the two former points. But if I told you before the game that it would be decided by Michigan’s defense taking the field against an Iowa offense that had only mustered seven points, and needed to cover 91 yards in 1:46 with one timeout and score a touchdown to win the game, you would have said no way Michigan loses. No way. At that moment, the longest drive Michigan had given up this season was 90 yards to Oklahoma and that took over five minutes. This is Iowa we’re talking about here. I-O-W-A.
Michigan’s defense had been as reliable as prime Mike Tyson through the first three games, but their knockout punch had been relentless man-to-man. And when that punch didn’t connect, the defense – players and coaches, victims of their own success – opened the door for Buster Douglas, a master of the fundamentals, to do the unthinkable. Let’s take a look at how Iowa countered Michigan’s best shot on the final drive to pull off the upset.
3rd and 7 // 4-2-5 Tampa 2 Man
One play after the ball ricocheted off an Iowa receiver and off the No. 7 on the front of Chris Bracy’s uniform, the Hawkeyes faced their first third down of the drive. Iowa did not convert a third down until two minutes remained in the first half to start the game, but steadily gained confidence throughout.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill brought his unit out in a 4-2-5, with – near to far – Dom Nichols, Trey Pierce, Enow Etta, and Tariq Boney across the defensive line. At the snap, the defensive tackles are going to twist while the edges collapse the pocket. Let’s pause for a second. It won’t make any highlights, but jump ahead and watch Boney’s pass rush. He stutter-steps as the tight end releases before exploding around the edge and just misses Hank Brown’s arm on the release. The change of pace, burst, and power are unbelievable for a freshman. Oh, and he is doing this against Trevor Lauck, who is the best left tackle in college football. Boney is special.
Behind the front, it’s man coverage for the most part, with the two safeties dropping into deep half-zones to protect against shots and linebacker Chase Taylor sinking into the middle of the field for the classic Tampa 2 look. It’s a conservative defense with each perimeter corner playing outside leverage with the goal of keeping everything in front of them and keeping the clock running.
Iowa comes out with a 3×1 formation and is going to run a Dagger variation. The two inside receivers of the trips formation are going to clear out with vertical routes and the outside receiver is going to run a 12-yard dig underneath them. It is the perfect play call to keep the sticks moving.
However, Michigan is okay with this for the moment. There is 1:13 left in the game when the ball is snapped and Iowa is just now at their own 25-yard line. Michigan wants to bend not break, and, for now, it is working.
3rd & 12 // 3-3-5 Cover 2 Man + QB Spy
45 more seconds have passed and Iowa has only moved the ball 15 yards. Hill is going for the kill shot with his most reliable defensive coverage. You know this coverage; you love this coverage. You could probably even diagram this one from our Oklahoma film study. Hill gets fresh bodies up front with John Henry Daley, Jonah Lea’ea, and Nate Marshall to rush the passer, and has linebacker Troy Bowles playing the spy. Just like against the Sooners, Nate Staehling is going to pick up the releasing running back, but keeps his eyes on the quarterback as a hybrid second spy. Behind that, it’s man coverage with two deep safeties. Let’s go.
At the snap, Marshall is stonewalled by Lauck, but Lea’ea dominates the future Rimington winner on the interior – almost forcing a collision sack – and Daley forces the quarterback to step up as he works over the top. As soon as he steps up, Bowles crashes down and delivers a massive hit as soon as the ball is released.
To call the throw a prayer is disingenuous to the ancient practice. Hank Brown heaves what can best be described as a meatball sub on the off chance he connects with his receiver on a slot fade. The ball has no chance and just misses Jyaire Hill’s outstretched arms for an interception, but falls incomplete nonetheless. And then Zeke Berry wades into infamy.
Now, a lot has been made about the hit being unnecessary and dumb – which it is – but I don’t think that’s why he got the flag. It’s hard to see in full on the YouTube copies, but on the television copy, you can clearly see he is not flagged for the hit. Even the official with the best view is on to fourth down.
The flag is only thrown by a different official once Berry starts jawing at wide receiver Tony Diaz. Maybe the official was just slow to the draw since the official penalty was “Unnecessary Roughness,” or maybe if he didn’t taunt him after the fact, it would have just been a play-on.
Put it all together and this is absolutely 100 percent, every day of the week and twice on Sunday, worse. To be flagged for being overly physical in football is one thing. But to throw the moment away because you had to get some shit off your chest to Diaz regarding his comments about man-to-man coverage earlier in the week is incredibly selfish. Diaz got inside Berry’s head like a trash-talking boxer and made him make the critical mistake of the game.
Put this on the coaches if you want, but Zeke Berry is a fifth-year player, a third-year starter, and the only member of the secondary to earn All-Big Ten recognition last season. He knows better and shouldn’t need to be reminded of that.
3rd & 10 // 3-3-5 Cover 4 Sim Pressure
There are now only 11 seconds left and Iowa has the ball at the Michigan 45-yard line with no timeouts. A tackle inbounds could end the game and Hill dials up a look reminiscent of Jesse Minter to shut the door.
Up front, there are no defensive tackles on the field. Defensive end Cam Brandt is lined up at nose guard with John Henry Daley to the far side and Dom Nichols nearside. At the snap, Nichols is going to bail into middle-of-the-field underneath coverage and Brandt is going to loop and replace him as the edge rusher. Daley is going to crash into the A gap, and linebackers Troy Bowles and Nate Staehling are going to replace Daley and rush in the B and C gaps to the far side. Behind the rush, it’s Cover 4 with four deep defenders and three underneath. Another defense designed to keep everything in front of them.
At the snap, the rush does its job again and forces the quarterback to step up. Channeling another one of his nine lives, Hank Brown creates just enough time to evade the rush and release the ball toward one of his four vertical receivers before being crunched by three defenders. Brown lofts the ball over the 15-yard, underneath defenders and off the outstretched hand of Rod Moore, who tips the 80/20 ball into the air, which is then, somehow, reeled in by the Iowa tight end.
I still can’t fathom how Moore doesn’t pick this one off. This is Rod “God” Moore we are talking about here. The celestial safety who “Called game” against Ohio State in 2023 and a top-15 safety in Michigan history. Was he a step slow? Is this him still recovering from multiple knee injuries? How does this one get past him?
To make matters worse, instead of Iowa having to rush and snap the ball and potentially the clock expiring, Michigan defensive end John Henry Daley is injured, so the Hawkeyes are gifted a timeout before the final play.
Final Play // 3-3-5 Cover 2 Man + QB Spy
With the game on the line, Jay Hill goes with old reliable. It’s Dom Nichols, Trey Pierce, and Nate Marshall across the front, and again, before we go forward, jump ahead and watch Nichols’s rush. He is that close to getting home, but his lightning-quick rush is just .001 too late. Iowa is again working four verticals down the field with some posts in the middle to occupy the safeties and both outside receivers running Go routes. From the alignment, Brown knows where he is going pre-snap and never second-guesses himself. He takes the snap, takes two steps, a quick hitch, and fires a back-shoulder ball to the pile-on against Smith Snowden who has no chance. Ball game.
This is horrific situational football from Hill. Why is there a spy? Why is Snowden pressing? What is this alignment? Who let Don Brown on the sidelines?
Instead, rush three, and have every defender stand within five yards of the goal line with eyes facing forward. By alignment alone, enough hesitation or indecision could have created ample time to allow Nichols to end the game. This came after an injury stoppage, too. The Denver Broncos were apparently paying attention.
Just in these plays, if Tariq Boney is an inch taller, if Zeke Berry pulls up and shuts up, if Rod Moore gets two hands on the football, if John Henry Daley isn’t injured, if Dom Nichols is given a split-second more, if Smith Snowden isn’t pressing, Michigan could have won the game. But them’s the breaks and no one knows better about winning in the margins than a master of fundamentals, like Iowa.
If you need a drink after watching that, you’re not alone. But the good news is, everything that went wrong in this game is fixable. Everything. This is not a South Carolina or even a Texas A&M situation. The defensive corrections are in the details and this unit is overflowing with the roster and coaching talent to be able to fix them. And offensively, nothing impacts this team’s ceiling like Bryce Underwood’s continued development and he is ascending.
As for Kyle Whittingham, let’s calm down; it’s been four games. Whittingham took over a program in complete disarray late in the cycle and wasn’t afforded a second transfer portal window after he evaluated the roster in spring ball. Are the penalties a problem? Yes, eight per game is unacceptable. But is it the end-all, be-all, red flag, AI-doomsdayer of Michigan football coaching? I am not so sure. Here are the average penalty numbers for Michigan’s last four head coaches in their first season at Michigan:
- 2024 Sherrone Moore: 3.92
- 2015 Jim Harbaugh: 6.69
- 2011 Brady Hoke: 4.08
- 2008 Rich Rodriguez: 4.75
As we all know, Sherrone Moore is best known as a master of discipline. The second, oft-forgotten word in “growing pains” is the most important. The pain is where you learn; where growth takes root. For a month, Michigan has been able to make mistakes without any real consequences. Why hone in on the details if you can win without them? Without repercussions for actions, change is hard to come by.
Michigan has been knocked to the mat for the first time this season and the umpteenth time in program history, and now has a chance to respond. The team heads to Minnesota next, which is where the 1969 team saved its season after a 3-2 start and where the Wolverines rebounded with a goal-line stand after the devastating botched punt fiasco against Michigan State in 2015.
For now, there’s no need to lose our heads or bite off an ear over this team — at least after this round.
