The Spurs started the season on a tear and are currently sitting second in the West standings with a 5-1 record. It’s early, but it seems like the lottery days might be over for San Antonio, which now looks to the postseason.
Thanks to the fantastic Dejounte Murray trade, however, there is a chance the Silver and Black could get a high pick. The Spurs have swap rights with the Atlanta Hawks, who recently lost Trae Young to an MCL sprain and will be reevaluated in four weeks.
It’s a tough blow for the
Hawks, which added veterans to make a push in the wide-open East. They brought in Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard to join their star point guard and their young supporting cast. A few games into the season, they find themselves with a 2-3 record and a big injury to their offensive engine. If the season ended today, Atlanta would be in a five-team tie to get two play-in spots and would have the ninth-best odds at the top pick in the lottery, according to Tankathon. The teams above them include the tanking Nets and Wizards, but also a Celtics squad that could get Jayson Tatum back this season and the Mavericks, who could get Kyrie Irving back.
The good news for Atlanta is that they have played three games without Young, including the one in which he suffered his injury, and they have won two of them. The bad news is that those wins came against the 0-6 Nets and the 1-6 Pacers. They played the Cavaliers close, which is impressive. Jalen Johnson has been an absolute beast for them, and their defense has unsurprisingly improved without Young in matchups against some of the worst teams in the league. But the schedule is about to get tougher, with the next four games and six of the next 10 against teams expected to make the playoffs or fight for the play-in. The Hawks could find themselves in a hole soon.
Now, the swap rights make it so the Hawks have no incentive to tank. The shallow East could also keep them alive in the play-in or even playoff hunt if they can tread water until Young returns. As mentioned, Johnson has been fantastic, and after slow starts, Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher are trending up. Things could get interesting, however, if they suffer another injury. Kristaps Porzingis has played over 60 games just three times in his career and just once in the last five seasons. Kennard is not the most durable of players. Johnson has suffered an assortment of injuries in his young career. If another rotation piece misses time, the Hawks’ questionable depth could be tested.
Beyond the on-court stuff, there are two factors that could affect how the Hawks approach this season. First, Trae Young’s extension situation. The two parties failed to come to an agreement in the offseason, and now Young could be in the last year of his contract, as he has a player option for the 2026/27 season. The injury makes it unlikely a deal will be reached any time soon. If the Hawks are struggling close to the trade deadline, Young, who in the past has complained about Atlanta’s lack of success, could maybe ask out. If they are thriving, the front office might want to move on from Young.
Normally, potentially losing a franchise star would be devastating for a team, but the Hawks could get a replacement in the next draft. The Spurs might swap for their pick, but they have the Pelicans’ first-rounder in the 2026 draft, fully unprotected, from a draft-day trade for Derik Queen. New Orleans is 0-6 and has one of the most fragile superstars in Zion Williamson. The West is deep with talent, so even if they try to win, Joe Dumars’ team could find itself in the cellar. Their pick could be one of the highest in a stellar draft, currently having the second-best odds at the top pick.
It’s entirely too early to map out how the Spurs’ and Hawks’ seasons will play out. Atlanta could find success even without Young for a month, suffer no major injuries going forward, and move up the standings in the weak East. The Spurs could implode after a strong start, making the swap rights meaningless. Young and Atlanta’s front office might agree to an extension, erasing any uncertainties about the future. The Hawks could make win-now trades, since they have zero motivation to tank. They could see the Pelicans’ pick as an opportunity to add a second star (or third, depending on how you see Johnson) instead of seeing it as a chance to find Young’s replacement.
It will be interesting to see how things play out, because even though what happens in Atlanta might not end up having a major impact in San Antonio, there’s a chance it could. The Spurs have built a great young core and assuming they remain good, the days of picking high in the lottery are over. Unless the Hawks have a bad season, that is, which is looking like a real possibility.
