Sometimes Heroes and Goats doesn’t flow with the narrative of a game. This was a Pete Crow-Armstrong night. He had been in what amounts to a slump for him the last several games. Nothing extravagant, but when you have grown accustomed to him being one of the stars of every game, him being reduced to role player is striking. Even his first hit in this game, the two-run double, felt a little like he reached out his bat just trying to keep an at bat alive and got good wood on it, flipping it over first and down
into the corner. Fangraphs did record it as a line drive, so I’m sure I’m underselling the contact and creating a narrative a little. But this just didn’t have the usual all over it type look of a PCA hit.
By the third hit, there was no doubt about it. He crushed that one for a two-run homer. Launching him into Cub history. With that, he tied Cub legend Billy Williams for the most homers ever by a Cub left-handed hitter. It’s an amazing record. Pete should own it all by himself before this season ends. He also stole his 37th base in the game. Our infatuation with round numbers as a society is always a fun thing. His season won’t be less magical if he ends with fewer than 40 steals. He won’t any less be the National League MVP. When you are arguably the league’s best fielder, arguably the league’s best hitter and one of the league’s best base runners, you are the MVP. Doing it on a team that will reach the postseason enhances that legacy. With the injury to Shohei Ohtani, voters were given an out. They shouldn’t need one, but this should be a runaway vote for MVP. A four-hit game against the Braves in September doesn’t hurt it any, for sure. One more fanbase and couple of sports writers sees up close what he can do and how he can affect a game.
It’s easy to lose David Peterson in Pete’s big night. Don’t lose David’s night, though. I wrote in my pre-series look at the Braves that they aren’t as good on the road as at home. But that’s still almost certainly a division winner in the league that was better this year. The league that has won the last two world championships. The league that has won six of the last 10 championships. The league that didn’t have investigations or high level accusations of sign stealing.
Peterson threw six innings of one-run ball. He allowed three hits and three walks before leaving one batter into the seventh. At the time he left, it was zero runs. Craig Counsell tried to get one (or more) outs out of him in the seventh but then pulled him after a leadoff single. It was a superlative performance. We talk here about how in a close game so many performances were all vital to the win. You usually can’t remove one and still have a win. I will make that same kind of observation about David Peterson in reference to the Cub season. I’m not sure where this team would have been without the lift he gave to them early on.
At the time the Cubs traded for Peterson, there were questions as to who even would start games for them. If the team had gone into a tailspin induced by weak starting pitching, then the trade deadline probably doesn’t happen. He was an enormous life raft at the time this team needed it most. He beat the Brewers in his first start. Got hammered by the Cardinals the next time out. He pitched decent in a loss in Baltimore (no decision for him). Then the Cubs won his next six starts. That streak ran from July 21 through August 22. They were 56-44 before that streak started and 74-56 by the time it ended. They improved six games in the standings. At a time when the Cubs won six straight Peterson starts.
As for deadline acquisitions, there was Ryan Zeferjahn working the ninth inning. Can not all of the way anointed closers have the same problem as long time closers? That is, pitching in non-save situations. How many times does a closer come into a low leverage situation, allow a few runners and then slam the door once the leverage is ratcheted up? Probably less than is romanticized in baseball lore. Two hits, strikeout, walk, game ending double play, the last of those against former NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr.
The former MVP is a cautionary tale on getting too carried away with what PCA’s career will or won’t be. I already saw someone this summer doing projections and deciding that Pete was on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Well yeah, when there are technically only a handful of data points and they are trending upwards towards Superstar performance, yeah that looks great. But in 2023 at 25 years old, Acuña had a 41-73 (!!!) season. He was over 8 bWAR that season and doesn’t have 5 bWAR since. He might go back to his MVP level or he might not.
You’ve heard this from me before. The future isn’t guaranteed. Enjoy what we are getting from Pete. Don’t worry about historical context. We can put his career in perspective, hopefully, 10-15 years from now. Or more. This year he is posting a historical season. Enjoy it for the best season any of us has ever seen a Cub have. Let tomorrow be tomorrow. Don’t make Pete spend his whole career chasing ghosts. He caught one (living) legend today. It’ll be fun if he finishes chasing down one more legend and claims ownership of the best fWAR season in Cub history. Interestingly, Baseball Ref doesn’t like Pete’s season nearly as well.
Another discussion for another day.
Three Positives:
- David Peterson. 6 IP, 1 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K
- Pete Crow-Armstrong. 4-5, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, R, SB
- Carson Kelly had a single and drew a walk and scored two runs. But I thought his biggest contribution was beating a double play. A run scored on the play and two more would score on Pete’s double that followed. That appeared to supercharge the night.
My lineup construction thought was a big hit. So how about Shōta Imanaga versus David Peterson for game four of a postseason series. Do me a favor and pretend that you can ONLY pick one of those two. The first three being Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman in some order. I tell you I’m starting one of those two. Period. You are my advisor on this, which one are you suggesting?
Game 151, September 14: Cubs 7, Braves 3 (84-67)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: David Peterson (.213). 6 IP, 23 BF, 3 H, 3 BB, R, 7 K (W 5-2)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.166). 4-5, HR, 2B, 4 RBI, R, SB
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.108). 2-4, RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Alex Bregman (-.047). 0-4
- Goat: Michael Conforto (-.024). 1-4, 2B, RBI
- Kid: Javier Assad (-.016). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, 2 R, K
WPA Play of the Game: PCA’s two-out, two-run double gave the Cubs a three run lead in the second. (.161)
Braves Play of the Game: Reynaldo Lopez struck out Michael Conforto with runners at the corners and the game scoreless in the second inning. (.062)
Note: The top six WPA events in this game favored the Cubs. Included in that top six were three double plays induced. This game was actually lopsided enough that one of 77 plays registered at .000 and Mike Yastrzemski’s two-run homer in the seventh was only .022.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 150 Winner: Miguel Amaya received 43 of 47 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +26.5
- Alex Bregman +24
- Carson Kelly +16.5
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Michael Conforto +13
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Seiya Suzuki -15
- Nico Hoerner -15
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
Note: This game saw a lot of leaderboard action. Not only PCA passing Bregman back for the lead. But at the time of the game, four of the six podium members were in the top six in the overall standings (Assad being the one outside the top five, dropping now from sixth to seventh). Also Nico grabbed a point down near the bottom.
Scoreboard Watching: Hat tip to the Dodgers for tying the MLB record by notching their 14th consecutive playoff berth. They will go on to win the NL West for the 13th time in 14 years. So impressive, regardless of any thoughts you might have about the financial structure of baseball. The Padres won their eighth straight. They remain 1.5 games behind the Cubs. The Diamondbacks played a nail biter against the Marlins. They walked it off with a Corbin Carroll homer. They are four back of the Cubs and still out of the postseason right now. They are suffering to the red hot Padres.
Up Next: Game two of the three game set with the Braves. Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.60) starts for the Cubs. He’s 4-2 with a 5.31 ERA as a Cub. Last time out, the Brewers beat him, scoring six earned runs against him in just four innings. Kevin lost to the Braves as a Blue Jay. He allowed four runs in six innings of work.
35-year-old lefty Martin Perez starts for the Braves. The Venezuelan native is on a nice run, though the record doesn’t show it. He’s 1-3 but has a 2.62 over his last seven games (just 34.1 innings). He did just throw seven scoreless against the Rays in a no decision. He threw 90 pitches in that one, the only time he’s thrown more since the trade deadline, the Brewers pushed him to 97 pitches in four innings. Walks are an issue. So look for a righty heavy Cub lineup and a very patient approach. He pitched in relief against the Cubs in May, throwing a scoreless inning. He’s 8-9 with a 3.16 as a starter (0-0 with a 1.93 in 9.1 relief innings). He’s been a fair bit worse on the road (4.76) than at home (1.80).
This is another winnable game. Go get it done. This remains the game Fangraphs is most confident with the Cubs winning. FG favors the Cubs to win six of the remaining 11 and win 90 games.
