The Dallas Cowboys will host the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night in what many are touting as a must-win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Not only are they desperate to get back in the win column, but
this team has never lost to a team with a losing record this season, so falling short would be a huge backbreaker for them.
Beating the Cardinals hasn’t been easy for the Cowboys over the last couple of decades, as they have lost seven of their last eight contests against them, including each of the last three. Dallas must buck this trend and come away with a nice primetime win if they are to keep their playoff hopes alive. Here are five things to watch when the Cowboys face the Cardinals under the lights.
1. Please, no career Knight for Bam
Whenever we look at a new opponent, we immediately assess the strength of their running game. That’s because the Cowboys’ defense has given up some whoppers on the ground this season. Running backs have feasted on this defense, and the Cowboys have surrendered at least 120 scrimmage yards to a running back in four of their last five games:
J.K. Dobbins = 121 yards
Rico Dowdle = 239 yards
Breece Hall = 155 yards
Josh Jacobs = 157 yards
The Cardinals have dealt with injuries to their backs this year. James Conner suffered a season-ending foot injury in Week 3. Then, a week later, backup Trey Benson hurt his knee and went on injured reserve. They relied on Michael Carter for a couple of weeks, but he was just recently cut, leaving the running back duties solely in the hands of Zonovan “Bam” Knight. The undrafted running back is only averaging 3.5 yards per game this year and has yet to eclipse 60 yards rushing in a game. However, nothing provides a jolt like the Cowboys’ swiss cheese run defense. Unless we see a big improvement, the Cards’ young back could be in for a career night.
2. Murray, Brissett, no matter
The Cardinals were hoping to get their starting quarterback, Kyler Murray, back after missing the last two games with a foot injury. The seven-year veteran has been okay. Nothing spectacular and nothing terrible. His numbers are down a bit as he’s averaging under 200 yards passing per game for the first time in his career. Murray has had success against the Cowboys in his career, with a perfect 2-0 record, throwing four touchdowns without a single pick.
Murray is not quite ready to go, meaning the team will lean on 10-year veteran Jacoby Brissett, who has given the Cardinals a chance to win in each of the last two games against tough opponents. Brissett is averaging 300 yards per game in his two starts this season, where he’s thrown four touchdowns and just one pick. It doesn’t feel like it should make much difference which quarterback suits up, Murray, Brissett, 6-7. Either is capable of punishing the Cowboys’ defense if they play well. Their mobility and propensity to extend plays can cause problems for the Cowboys’ secondary. The last time these two teams squared off was two years ago when backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs used his legs to get the better of them. Whatever fear or lack thereof you had for Murray should also exist with Brissett.
3. There’s no place like home
Up to this point in the season, the Cowboys have only played three games at home compared to five on the road. They have yet to lose at home (although they did tie Green Bay) and have scored at least 40 points in every game at AT&T Stadium this year. Additionally, Dak Prescott loves his home turf, as his numbers are noticeably different:
At home: 74% completion rate, 315 yards per game, 3.0 touchdowns per game, 0.8% interception rate
On the road: 68% completion rate, 225 yards per game, 1.6 touchdowns per game, 2.4% interception rate
It’s not that Prescott is bad on the road; he’s just been on fire in front of his home crowd.
The Cowboys’ offense will look to get back on track after an underwhelming performance against the Broncos last week. Arizona’s pass defense is in the bottom-10 and surrenders the same amount of yards per game as the New York Giants, who, up until now, have allowed the most total yards and first downs to the Cowboys this season. Hopefully, another offensive explosion is coming.
4. Keep Harrison Jr. in check
The offense of the Cardinals is not littered with playmakers, but they do have two very talented pass catchers who the Cowboys’ defense will need to be mindful of – Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. McBride is a tough cover, and he’s going to get his. He leads the team in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns. But at 60 yards a game, that’s something they should be able to live with as long as he doesn’t go off.
The bigger threat could be second-year receiver Harrison Jr., who has the talent to hurt them big and hurt them often. The Cowboys’ defense hasn’t fared well against some of the league’s top WR prospects in recent years. In fact, they have faced six wide receivers who have been selected in the top 10 over the last four drafts. All six of those receivers have scored a touchdown the last time they faced the Cowboys, including all three they have faced this season: Malik Nabers (2 TDs), Tetairoa McMillan (2 TDs), and Romeo Odunze (1 TD). Harrison Jr. has yet to have a 100-yard game this season, and he only has one two-touchdown game in his career. Both of those things could change after Monday night if the Cowboys’ secondary continues to struggle.
5. EZ does it
Back in April, the Cowboys may not have planned to take another edge rusher early in the draft, but when Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku was still available at pick 44, he was just too good to pass up. The rookie started like most rookie edge rushers do as he was slow to make his mark, but he has really turned it up in recent games. After eight weeks of football, he has the second-highest splash play rate for rookie defenders this season. Only 10 edge rushers have a pressure rate greater than 14%, and none of them have a faster time-to-pressure than Ezeiruaku.
If the Cowboys expect to slow down the Cardinals’ passing attack, they must get pressure on the quarterback. Along the edge is where Arizona is most vulnerable. Right tackle Jonah Williams has given up the fourth-most sacks this year. It’s a favorable matchup for the Cowboys’ young edge rusher, and this could be the game where the entire world gets a good look at the Cowboys’ rising defensive star.
