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The opening spreads and lines have been released and, while probably
not shocking to anyone, the Huskers have been given odds similar to Belgium and France vs. Germany just prior to the start of World War II. Fine, maybe not quite that depressing, but sportsbook-wise, this will be the largest underdog spread the Huskers have faced this season.
But shock or not, the Utah Utes are prohibitive favorites, and the Huskers may need a few Katniss Everdeen tricks up their sleeve after being gifted Hunger Games-type chances by the bowl selection folks, so onward and upward.
So let’s take a quick look at the opening numbers and what they mean:
(Spreads and odds by FanDuel)
Spread: Nebraska +13.5
Installing the Utes as a heavy favorite is a no-brainer. Utah finished 10-2 (7-2 & 3rd in the Big 12) and ended the season on a 5-game winning streak. Nebraska was 7-5 (3-4 & T-10th in the Big 10) and finished the season losing 3 of 4 after starting QB Dylan Raiola went down with a season-ending injury.
Utah was 6th in the country in both total and scoring offense and 61st in total defense BUT tied for 16th in scoring defense. Nebraska was 79th in total and 55th in scoring offense and 22nd and 53rd in total and scoring defense.
They are also operating with a dinged-up true freshman quarterback, who will miss at least the first week of bowl practice with pulled hammy, and a defense under interim coordinator, Phil Snow, after John Butler was terminated. Big 10 Running Back of the Year and likely All-American Emmett Johnson declared for the NFL draft, and hasn’t yet stated if he will play in the bowl game, which could be considered both an injury risk or a final tryout. Starting right guard Rocco Spindler has opted out of the bowl game after playing the last several weeks with a surgically repaired finger.
Utah’s QB, junior Devon Dampier, has thrown for 22 TD’s against only 5 picks, and is very mobile as the teams’ 2nd-leading rusher averaging 6.6 YPC when adjusted for sacks. The Huskers 94th ranked run defense will be expected to slow an Ute offense, which is 60.7% run-heavy and headed by Dampier and 931-yard rusher Wayshawn Parker averaging 6.1 YPC. It should be noted that Dampier appeared to be playing through injury at less than 100% in the final weeks.
It is the first time Utah has been a double-digit favorite in a bowl game since the 2005 Fiesta Bowl against Pittsburgh.
My call: Hate to bet against the boys, but there’s an opportunity here for the cold-hearted. Lateef, who inexplicably played to the finish against Iowa with his dinged-up hamstring well after the game was out of reach, has already been ruled out of practice this week. Anyone who knows about hammy injuries – see all the Kwinten Ives updates through fall practice – knows that they can linger. If Lateef ends up being ruled out, that +13.5 is going to look very good as the spread shoots even higher. And the Iowa game showed his effectiveness if they decide to have him play through it again.
Moneylines: Nebraska +450 Utah -630
For those who may not know, these are the odds if you want to bet the winner straight up. Those choosing the Utes would have to bet $630 to win $100. If you believe that with great risk comes great rewards, then you would lay $100 down to collect $450 if the Huskers pull the upset.
My call: The same applies to a moneyline bet as far as being tied to Lateef’s health – just waaay more risk on both sides.
Over/Under: 49.5
The 49.5 O/U number with a Utah team averaging over 40 points a game tells you what they think of Nebraska’s scoring chances. A healthy Lateef makes me think this leans over, but not so much if he’s out or slowed. I’d recommend waiting for further news on his health here.
My call & a Warning: I’m a terrible sports gambler. Use these recs at your own risk and Go Big Red.
