Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight standouts Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Feb. 28, 2026) inside CDMX Arena in Mexico City, Mexico, for UFC Mexico City.
At this point, we have to acknowledge that Moreno’s best days are likely behind him, losing three of his last five bouts. Though only 32 years old, Moreno has been in the game for a very long time and has never backed down from a brawl. That said, those losses occurred via competitive split decisions and one
somewhat early stoppage loss to the division’s best rising grappler, so it’s not like the former Flyweight king is washed.
Conversely, 26-year-old Kavanagh is widely considered one of the division’s brighter prospects. The young knockout artist cut his teeth in Cage Warriors before joining UFC’s roster via Contenders Series. Unfortunately, his undefeated run ended last time out in a comeback knockout at the hands of Charles Johnson (see that again here), but an injury to Asu Almabayev (more on that here) turned Kavanagh’s rebound booking into the biggest opportunity of his career.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Moreno vs. Kavanagh Betting Odds
- Brandon Moreno victory: -225
- Brandon Moreno via TKO/KO/DQ: +470
- Brandon Moreno via submission: +390
- Brandon Moreno via decision: +185
- Lone’er Kavanagh victory: +172
- Lone’er Kavanagh via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
- Lone’er Kavanagh via submission: +2500
- Lone’er Kavanagh via decision: +380
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Moreno Wins
Moreno is not the most consistent man on UFC’s roster, but he does have a very deep set of skills. He can scramble with the absolute best of them offensively or defensively, though he tends to keep fights on the feet more often than not. In the stand up, Moreno has the division’s best jab, punishing kicks and some tricky counter combinations.
The more Moreno jabs, the better he looks. There are fights were Moreno gets too focused on his lunging and loopy power shots to his own detriment. While he is good at timing those blows, he sometimes goes to the well too often and starts missing.
Against a puncher like Kavanagh, that could be a problem.
Fortunately, Moreno has the tools to capitalize on Kavanagh’s striking style, which is heavily reliant upon pulling away from exchanges quickly. Moreno should therefore be doubling the jab to line up his right hand and generally extending combinations. He’s also quite good at running up into kicks — ask Kai Kara-France — which could be a great way to punish Kavanagh for avoiding exchanges.
Finally, I’d love to see Moreno mixing in takedown attempts. Despite his excellent ground work, he doesn’t proactively try to wrestle often enough.
How Kavanagh Wins
Kavanagh is a plus athlete first and foremost. It’s clear from the speed with which Kanavagh can change directions or burst forward that he’s built for power, a trait that comes through in his heavy punches and running double leg alike. From a more technical standpoint, Kavanagh is a tricky kicker who relies on good in-and-out movement to set up his hands.
There is no easy way to defeat Moreno, who almost never gets finished and will scrap it out to the very end. That said, the focus should be on taking away Moreno’s best weapons, namely that jab. If Kavanagh can focus on using his kicks — like that crafty lead leg snap kick — to interrupt Moreno’s dipping jab and general head movement, it will go a long way in making him easier to hit.
Generally, Kavanagh his to force exchanges and take chances here. He’s not going to be slicker than the former champion, but he’s much younger in fight years. His chin is fresher, and Kavanagh’s punches certainly pack a wallop. He probably needs to hurt Moreno at least once to win this fight, so (somewhat responsibly) jumping into the fire on occasion might be necessary for that to happen.
Moreno vs. Kavanagh Prediction
I don’t see many real advantages for the young fighter, who is being brought up far too quickly after Johnson just proved that he still needs experience. Kavanagh is undoubtedly a great athlete, but his technical game isn’t particularly deep yet, and he sometimes fatigues as a result of his own pace. Moreno has the composure to fire back when Kavanagh loads up, and his ripping kicks should prove a great answer to Kavanagh’s style of movement.
There’s always a chance Moreno’s chin is suddenly shot after the Taira loss or that he just fails to perform, but otherwise, this should be another clear victory for the veteran.
