Michigan got back in the win column by defeating Washington at the Big House on Saturday by a final score of 24-7. As expected, the win put the Wolverines back in the good graces of ESPN and Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, rising one spot from where they were a week ago.
For those of you who are new to SP+, Connelly describes it as, “A tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency – It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky
or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
A team’s SP+ rating is determined by it offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiencies and is used to predict how many points it would beat (or lose to) the “average” college football team by. For example, Michigan’s rating after defeating Washington is 16.4, which ranks No. 21 in the country. In other words, Michigan should beat the “average” college football team by 16.4 points on a neutral field.
Despite winning and moving up the rankings, the 16.4 rating is actually 0.4 points lower than it was after the USC loss, but this is likely due to the model not thinking Michigan played as well as it expected even though it won in convincing fashion. On the flip side, Washington dropped two spots to No. 23 in the country, as its rating is 2.6 points lower than what it was last week.
As for the top of the rankings, things pretty much held serve after Week 8, with Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana still occupying the top three spots, respectively. Oklahoma moved up a spot to No. 5 after defeating South Carolina. USC climbed the rankings after pounding Michigan in Week 7, but the Trojans lost to Notre Dame on Saturday to send them back to No. 16 in the rankings. Meanwhile, a talented, yet rudderless Penn State squad still checks in at No. 17 in the country despite its 3-4 record after losing to Iowa.
Taking a look ahead to Week 9, Michigan is set to take the short trip to East Lansing to square off against Michigan State in the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. The model is very much in Michigan’s favor heading into the week, as Michigan State ranks as the No. 74 team in the country with a rating of -1.9. In other words, SP+ views the Spartans as a “below average” college football team and suggests Michigan should win this year’s matchup by about 18 points. We’ll see if its correct when the teams take the field at Spartan Stadium at 7:30 p.m. on Saturday.
