For the last four seasons, the story of the Most Valuable Oriole has largely told the story of the Orioles’ entire season. In 2022, a rookie Adley Rutschman took home MVO honors after debuting in May and rallying the O’s to a 67-55 record over the last four months of the season. Another rookie took home the award in 2023, as Gunnar Henderson earned ROY and MVO as the Orioles captured the AL East crown.
Henderson was a back-to-back winner in 2024, as the Orioles’ Country Boy posted the best season
in franchise history by WAR (9.1) by anyone other than Cal Ripken Jr. Trevor Rogers denied Gunnar the three-peat last year, as the lefty overcame an early-season injury to post one of the best 18-start stretches in Orioles’ history.
The Orioles will need a concerted effort from the entire 26-man roster if Baltimore is going to reverse its fortunes and return to the playoffs in 2026. But after disappointing seasons from many star players in 2025, the O’s will need their stars to lead from the front of the lineup or rotation if they want to reverse their fortunes in the new season. With that in mind, let’s give sportsbook-style odds for which players are most likely to add their name to the pantheon of Most Valuable Orioles winners.
*Disclaimer: These are not real betting odds. I set these odds myself. Do not actually try and bet them.*
The favorite: Pete Alonso
Beers Sportsbook Betting Odds: -150
Gunnar Henderson has been the Orioles’ best player for some time now, both in terms of on-field production and national recognition. After rising to the No. 10 player in all of baseball on the heels of a record-setting season in 2024, Henderson has slipped to No. 26 in MLB.com’s latest Top 100 Players of Right Now due to a down 2025. That’s still the best ranking of any Oriole, but right behind him at No. 33 is major offseason signing Pete Alonso.
What is often the separator in “Most Valuable” conversations is not solely a player’s stats, but the narrative attached to their season. If the Orioles are going to reach their full potential in 2026, the offense will have to lead the way. Before injuries to Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday, many projection models had the O’s lineup as the best in the American League. Last year, the O’s finished near the bottom of the league in runs scored and toward the middle of the pack in home runs. Alonso will look to help the O’s match or better their 2024 form when they finish Top 5 in both runs and home runs.
Given his track record as a five-time All-Star and perennial 40+ HR hitter, I’m sure a lot of credit will be given to Alonso if the O’s reach their full offensive potential. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t expect big things from Henderson, Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Samuel Basallo and others. However, Alonso is the leader this team will be looking to throughout the season, and the player MVO voters will look to if he leads an offensive revolution.
The leading competition
Trevor Rogers or Kyle Bradish
Beers Sportsbrook Betting Odds: +150
The Orioles’ rotation is full of talent, but also full of uncertainty. The additions of Shane Baz and Chris Bassitt, and the re-signing of Zach Eflin, have made the Orioles’ rotation deeper. And yet, this rotation still lacks a fully-proven, front-line starter. That is, unless Rogers or Bradish prove their best seasons were not one-offs.
When Rogers took home the award last year, a big part of his value came from the unexpected nature of his breakout season. Coming into last season, Rogers wasn’t projected to make the rotation and his only previous experience with the O’s was a disastrous four-start stint after being acquired at the 2024 trade deadline. The southpaw only got a chance last season because Baltimore needed a second starter for a doubleheader in Boston.
What ensued from there was a stretch that put Rogers’ name next to the likes of Jim Palmer and Mike Mussina when it comes to best single-season pitching runs in Orioles history. Rogers’ MVO win last year made him the first pitcher to win the award since closer Randy Myers in 1997, and the first starter since Mike Cuellar in 1974.
Both Rogers and Bradish come into this season with plenty of expectations. The 28-year-old southpaw will get the Opening Day nod, looking to build on his Top 10 Cy Young finish from last year. Bradish slots into the No. 2 spot in the rotation and looks to prove that his dominant 2023 season and spectacular cameo last September are what we should expect going forward. If either can live up to the lofty expectations and put a stranglehold on the ace role, it could be enough to beat out Alonso and the rest of the offense for MVO.
Gunnar Henderson
Beers Sportsbook Betting Odds: +200
In Henderson’s MVP-level season, he put up a 9.1 bWAR while hitting 37 HRs, collecting 92 RBIs, 31 doubles, 21 stolen bases and 118 runs. The majority of that production came with Henderson as the Orioles’ leadoff hitter. Indications from Sarasota are that new manager Craig Albernaz will put the star SS back in the leadoff role after spending most of last year as the No. 3 hitter.
If the return to the top spot in the lineup brings out the best in Baltimore’s best player, his all-around contributions will make it near impossible for any other Orioles to outpace him in the MVO race. Henderson may also be coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder after having to fight for his spot in Team USA’s World Baseball Classic lineup. And a Gunnar Henderson that’s both pissed off and back in his best spot in the order, that’s an MVO waiting to happen.
The dark horse
Coby Mayo
Beers Sportsbook Betting Odds: +1000
Pretty much everything about Coby Mayo is up in the air as we head toward Opening Day. Has he shown enough defensively in the spring to lock down the starting spot at 3B? Once Jackson Holliday and (maybe) Jordan Westburg get healthy, can he keep his spot in the lineup? Will he get any playing time at 1B or DH with Alonso, Basallo and Ryan Mountcastle all competing for ABs at those spots?
The one thing that becomes less of a question every day is Mayo’s bat. He’s gone 13-for-26 in Grapefruit League play while posting a 1.195 OPS, a team-high 10 RBIs and one absolute moonshot. With his spring training performance and his .941 OPS last September, there’s growing reason to believe that the 24-year-old is starting to make good on his offensive upside. If he can break out like Gunnar did in his second full season, we could see Mayo have a 2021 Cedric Mullins run to an unlikely MVO win.
