Historically, the Iowa-Michigan State series sits at 25-23-2, with Iowa holding a narrow edge in one of the more evenly matched conference rivalries. The Spartans snapped a two-game Iowa winning streak
last season with a win in East Lansing, but history hasn’t been kind to Michigan State visitors at Kinnick Stadium – they’ve only won in Iowa CIty twice in the last 30 years (2011, 2013). Both teams have undergone significant changes since that last meeting, with Iowa bringing an improving offense under Tim Lester while Michigan State has struggled mightily in Jonathan Smith’s second year in East Lansing.
Saturday’s senior day matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions. The Hawkeyes are looking to bounce back from consecutive losses to Oregon and USC, while the Spartans limp into Iowa City having lost seven straight Big Ten games and searching desperately for their first B1G win of the season.
OFFENSE
Iowa - 310.2 ypg (133.6 passing, 176.6 rushing), 28.7 ppg Michigan State - 335.8 ypg (212.5 passing, 123.3 rushing), 24.0 ppg
The numbers tell an interesting story about Iowa’s offensive transformation under Tim Lester. While they still rank near the bottom of the NCAA in passing (122nd), the Hawkeyes ground game (44th) has helped them average nearly 29 points per game – a number that Iowa fans would have killed for two years ago. They’re doing it the old-fashioned Iowa way: establishing the ground game first and keeping things manageable through the air. Mark Gronowski has shown flashes in the pass game, but the added option of QB runs has given Iowa an advantage on the ground, provided that he stays healthy.
Michigan State’s offense has been a carousel of frustration. After benching Aidan Chiles earlier this season, the Spartans turned to redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic, who has completed 59-of-92 passes (64.1%) for 720 yards and four touchdowns to just one interception. In his two starts against Minnesota and Penn State, he’s looked competent but has been absolutely brutalized behind a struggling offensive line – taking nine sacks against Minnesota and five more against Penn State. When you’re getting sacked 14 times in two games, it doesn’t matter how accurate you are.
The Spartans’ rushing attack has been anemic, averaging just 123.3 yards per game (104th nationally). Makhi Frazier leads the team with 520 yards, but there’s no explosive element in that backfield. Meanwhile, Iowa’s defense is giving up just 103.8 ypg (16th) on the ground and should feast on a Michigan State offensive line that can’t protect its quarterback.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa. The Hawkeyes can control this game on the ground and keep Milivojevic on his back. Michigan State simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace.
DEFENSE
Iowa - 261.2 ypg allowed (157.4 passing, 103.8 rushing) 14.9 ppg allowed Michigan State - 370.9 ypg allowed (217 passing, 153.9 rushing), 31.1 ppg allowed
Iowa’s defense under Phil Parker may have taken a step back from its usual elite standards this season, but it’s still a formidable unit that ranks in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense. The Hawkeyes have been particularly stout against the run and opportunistic in creating turnovers. Against a Michigan State offense that’s managed just 24 points per game and features a quarterback who’s been sacked 14 times in his last two starts, Parker’s unit should have multiple opportunities to pin their ears back and tee off.
Michigan State’s defense has had its moments but has been inconsistent throughout the season. They’ve shown vulnerability against competent offensive lines, and Iowa’s front should be able to establish dominance early (even if some of it’s more veteran players are unable to go). The Spartans rank 69h nationally in total defense, surrendering 370.9 yards per game, and have struggled particularly against the pass (217 passing yards allowed per game).
The matchup that matters most: Iowa’s offensive line versus Michigan State’s pass rush. The Hawkeyes have one of the better units in the Big Ten, and Gronowski should have plenty of time to operate. On the flip side, Iowa’s defensive front should terrorize Milivojevic all afternoon.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ defense is far more battle-tested and should create multiple negative plays against a Spartans offense that’s struggled to protect its quarterback.
Special Teams
Iowa - 42.5 punt avg, 77.3% FG (17/22), 26.4 ypkr, 25.7 yppr Michigan State - 49.3 punt avg, 66.7% FG (10/15), 22.4 ypkr, 14 yppr
This is where things get interesting. Michigan State’s Ryan Eckley leads the nation with an absurd 49.7 yards per punt – nearly a full yard ahead of anyone else in college football. That’s a genuine weapon that can flip field position dramatically. However, kicker Martin Connington has been shaky, converting just 71.4% of his attempts and notably missing kicks from 46, 24, and 23 yards in recent games. He’s just 1-for-4 from 40+ yards this season, which could force Michigan State into more fourth-down gambles.
Iowa’s Drew Stevens is at 77.3% (17/22) on field goals this season and owns the Iowa school record with 71 career field goals. He hit a career-long 58-yarder against Oregon and has been pretty consistent the last few games. Rhys Dakin has been solid, but not great, averaging 43.7 yards per punt.
Kaden Wetjen, as always, is the biggest x-factor in the return game. The reigning Jet Award winner has three return touchdowns this season (two punt returns and one kickoff return) and is averaging 27.8 yards per kickoff return and 25.7 yards per punt return. He’s the only player in the nation with both a punt and kickoff return TD in 2025. He’s tied with Tim Dwight for the most return touchdowns in Iowa history with five career scores. Michigan State’s coverage units haven’t been particularly impressive, and Wetjen could break one at any moment.
ADVANTAGE: Iowa. While Michigan State has the punting edge with Eckley, Iowa’s superiority in kicking reliability and explosive return game with Wetjen tips the scales decisively in the Hawkeyes’ favor.
Numbers to Watch
2 –Elijah Tau-Tolliver isn’t Sparty’s go-to back, but he’s been impressive when he touches the ball. He’s average 6.9 yards per carry and another 12.1 ypc out of the backfield. He’s shifty, fast, and provides a dangerous safety option for Milivojevic. Iowa showed some vulnerability against screens against USC, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Tau-Tolliver’s usage go up on Saturday.
5 – Jordan Hall leads Michigan State with 74 total tackles, and he’s been all over the field trying to hold together a defense that’s spent far too much time on it. The junior linebacker has shown excellent pursuit and delivered big hits, but one player can only do so much when the offense can’t stay on the field. He’ll need help up front to slow Iowa’s ground game.
6 – Nick Marsh is Michigan State’s only legitimate deep threat. The 6-3 sophomore has 48 catches for 559 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 11.6 yards per reception. He’s posted back-to-back 75+ yard games and remains the focal point of the Spartans’ passing attack despite portal additions. Iowa’s secondary will need to bracket him all afternoon to eliminate the vertical threat. If Marsh gets loose, this gets interesting.
6 – Zach Lutmer has emerged as Iowa’s most versatile weapon on defense. He’s quickly becoming a lock down corner and has delivered some awfully big hits in run support. Given MSU’s leaky OLine I won’t be surprised if we see Phil dial up some Corner blitzes and use Lutmer’s speed to make Milivojevic as nervous as possible.
11 – Mark Gronowski has been everything Iowa hoped for. The two-time FCS national champion has 1,216 passing yards and six TDs while leading the team with 13 rushing touchdowns – tops in the Big Ten and a single-season Iowa quarterback record. He’s the only player in the nation to score a TD in all 10 games this season. Against a Michigan State defense that’s struggled with mobile QBs, Gronowski should find pay dirt multiple times.
11 – Alessio Milivojevic has been pretty solid since taking over the starting role from Aidan Chiles a couple weeks ago. He’s can make every thrown and it mobile enough to escape the pocket, but he needs to stay on his feet to do any of that. If MSU’s Oline can figure out pass pro he can be dangerous, that’ll be tough against Iowa’s veteran Dline.
21 – Kaden Wetjen is often the most dangerous player on the field. The reigning Jet Award winner has three return TDs this season and is the only player nationally with both a punt and kickoff return TD in 2025. He’s tied with Tim Dwight for most return touchdowns in Iowa history (5) while averaging 27.8 yards per kickoff return and 25.7 per punt return. If MSU can’t angle away from him on kicks/punts, it could be a long day for what have proven to be shaky coverage units so far.
Lines
Point spread: Iowa -16.5 Over/Under: 42.5
Iowa is a 16.5 favorite at home, which feels about right given the trajectories of these two programs. The Hawkeyes are desperate to end their two-game skid and send their seniors out with a win on senior day. Michigan State needs this game to keep any hope of a bowl birth alive, but they’re limping into Kinnick Stadium with an offense that can’t protect its quarterback and a team that’s yet to win a B18 game this season.
The over/under of 42.5 reflects the reality that neither offense is lighting the world on fire, but also acknowledges that Iowa should be able to score at will against Michigan State’s porous defense. The question is whether the Spartans can even muster enough points to make it interesting. Given that they’ve been held under 20 points in five of their last seven games, that seems unlikely.
Iowa should win this game. The Hawkeyes are better on both sides of the ball, they’re playing at home on senior day, and they’re facing a Michigan State team that’s been thoroughly broken by B18 play. The only real question is whether Iowa can cover the spread. Given the Spartans’ offensive ineptitude and Iowa’s defensive prowess, I think they can.
The path to victory for Iowa is straightforward: establish the run early, let Gronowski manage the game efficiently, and let the defense do what it does best – create negative plays and force turnovers. Michigan State will need to somehow protect Milivojevic long enough for him to get the ball to Nick Marsh, establish some sort of running game to keep Iowa’s defense honest, and hope for multiple Iowa turnovers. Good luck with all that.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
