We’ve had about a week to digest the Texas Longhorns’ frustrating loss to Ohio State. Did it change your season expectations?
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) – Not significantly. I still think Texas is in contention for the SEC Championship, but the offense may not be as dominant as I once believed. Frankly, I was really impressed with all facets of the team, outside of the passing game, but if you tell me that Texas plays that level of defense, can run the ball for at least four yards per carry,
and special teams is a plus unit for them, they will still be highly competitive. Add to that the fact that it is likely the worst we will ever see Arch Manning play, and I don’t really have to readjust my expectations too much.
Cameron Parker (@camerondparker) – It did lower my floor for this season, with my prediction being an 11-1 campaign. Now, 9-3 is possible with tough road contests against Florida and Georgia. I do think we should allow Arch Manning and the team three more games before we close the book on him and this team. If Texas played San Jose State last weekend and Ohio State this weekend, how different would the team look?
Jacob Neidig (@jneidig_2) – No. Everything expected of this team is still on the table. The defense looked elite, and special teams showed promise. The offense struggled, but should only get better. This squad still has all the pieces for a deep run. I’m not backing off my preseason expectations quite yet.
Quentin Bell (@uncleqbell) – No, I still expect a strong season. Hopefully, against SJSU, we’ll see more cohesion with play calling and execution on the offensive end. Defensively, I expect a very strong game on stopping the run and tight coverage in the secondary.
Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – Two things are true here: the Longhorns can still achieve every goal that existed prior to the season opener, and they appear less likely to achieve those goals after the loss to Ohio State. The biggest concern for me is how Arch Manning played. He looked overwhelmed for most of the game, and it resulted in missed reads and mechanical breakdowns that were, frankly, shockingly pervasive.
Time now for our weekly segment brought to you by the angry talk shows: what is your biggest overreaction from Saturday?
Gerald – Folks already calling Arch Manning a bust. The “if his last name was different” thing cuts both ways, but folks don’t want to have that conversation. If his name wasn’t “Manning,” then he would be a sophomore quarterback making his first start as the full-time starter in one of the toughest places to play against one of the best defenses in the country. I think the moment got to Arch against Ohio State, but frankly, I don’t think we can accurately judge his abilities based on one start, especially with how he flashed toward the end of the game.
Cameron – If we’re asking what is the biggest overreaction from all of the overreactions, it’s either a) Arch is a bust or b) Sark needs to hire a play-caller. “Play call Twitter” might be the worst Twitter. My biggest personal overreaction is that Texas might not have a true No. 1 wideout. I believe the ceiling of the wide receiver room is ridiculously high, but it’s concerning that Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. combined for three catches and 41 yards. Could that be because Ohio State’s secondary is the best in the nation and gave Arch all kinds of problems? Probably.
Jacob – “Arch Manning doesn’t have the tools to lead the offense.” A quarterback in the first game of the season on the road against the defending national champions, who have a 3x Super Bowl winner as their defensive coordinator, struggled. He missed some throws. He missed some throws badly. He made some bad reads. Again, in the first game of the season on the road against the defending national champions, who have a 3x Super Bowl winner as their defensive coordinator. Deciding the fate and upside of Arch and this offense this early on is absurd.
Quentin – Deciding the fate of the season early. The undefeated season is nice, but it doesn’t matter anymore with the playoffs. The goal is still obtainable, it’s just who’s willing to work it.
Wescott – Steve Sarkisian isn’t good enough against elite defenses. Maybe that isn’t even an overreaction given the data points we have from two losses to Georgia and Ohio State in the last year. In those games, Sarkisian was too predictable on offense, and the issues in the red zone are well known at this point. Until something changes, it seems clear that the defense is going to have to win those types of games without much help from Sarkisian’s offense.
How do you expect Arch Manning to play against San Jose State?
Gerald – I honestly think Sark sets the kid up to put up wild numbers over the next few weeks. While San Jose State is vulnerable against the run, I think the passing game (both Manning and the wide receivers) needs the in-game reps to get in rhythm. They were not anywhere close to standard against Ohio State, so I think we see them in a position to put up big numbers to take advantage of the live game reps with a month until Florida.
Cameron – I believe we’ll see a more confident and calmer Arch Manning than we saw a week ago against Ohio State. There won’t be 100,000 people screaming bloody murder. There won’t be Caleb Downs and Sonny Styles making life difficult for him.
Jacob – I expect a cleaner performance in more limited snaps. The scheme and talent of the Spartan defense will be lower than last week. Manning should be able to take advantage. I’d like for him to be able to make decisive reads quickly, and I expect him to look more in control of the game while making more accurate throws overall.
Quentin – I expect him to play with more “get up”. He played decently in the pocket as the game progressed against Ohio State, but was just slightly behind when he felt the disruption. Hopefully, he’ll be able to see his exit lanes quicker in the pocket, but more importantly, get the ball off on time to his wideouts so he doesn’t have to run.
Wescott – San Jose State is going to be completely overmatched by Texas, so I expect Manning to bounce back in this game and recover his poise and accuracy because he looked good last year against similar opponents. But there is some nagging concern that the Ohio State game rattled his confidence enough that some of those effects linger into the home opener.
Let’s try and find some positivity here…what player or positional group do you feel better about after last week?
Gerald – Interior defensive line. They had a 26 percent stuff rate against a tough Ohio State run game. I am officially retiring the offseason conversation about how Texas will replace its interior defensive line. The secondary gets an honorable mention. They lost Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba but didn’t miss a step. They once again limited a wide receiver group featuring a pair of players in contention for WR1 in the next two NFL Drafts. I was especially impressed with the play of Graceson Littleton in his first game.
Cameron – The cornerbacks. I did not have Graceson Littleton locking up Jeremiah Smith on my bingo card. Texas has a stud in Littleton. Malik Muhamamad was excellent in coverage, too. Was it the gloves? Or the Texas corners being physical with Smith all game? Even the long touchdown reception to Carnell Tate featured good defense from Jaylon Guilbeau.
Jacob – It has to be the interior defensive line group, although Jack Bouwmeester gets a close second. We knew Texas brought in a lot of talent from the portal, but I personally wasn’t sure just how good they would be. The performance against Ohio State from the fellas up front gave me a lot of confidence in their ability to clog holes in the run game. I’m excited to see what havoc they can create the rest of the season.
Quentin – Tight end group, Endries caught tough passes when called upon, and hopefully the TE group will get more looks in the red zone instead of running three straight draws.
Wescott – The offensive line. Ohio State has a high-level run defense, and Matt Patricia schemed to take away outside zone, so the ability to run for 166 yards on 4.5 yards per carry is a significant improvement from what Texas was able to accomplish on the ground in big games last year. The hopeful takeaway from this is that the Longhorns could improve as a run-blocking unit despite losing four starters.
Congrats to all five of you who picked Texas to beat Ohio State last week! No one knows ball here…redemption time. Who wins? Texas (-35.5 at FanDuel) or San Jose State?
Gerald (0-1/0-1 ATS) – Texas wins obviously. It’s so hard to take a five-touchdown number here, but SJSU gave up more than 200 yards rushing to Central Michigan, so I do think Texas minus the points. Texas 45, San Jose State 7
Cameron (0-1/0-1 ATS) – Texas 52, San Jose State 7
Jacob (0-1/0-1 ATS) – This is a game where Texas should be playing vengefully against an overmatched opponent. The Spread n Shred should be a unique test for the defense, but I expect the Longhorns to run away early and never look back. Texas covers. Texas 48, San Jose State 10.
Quentin (0-1/0-1 ATS) – Texas wins, I’ll take the under with Arch tossing 2 TDs and possibly getting 1 TD on the ground (if f****** Sark continues to run QB draws on the goal line), but if not a defensive TD, Baxter should get at least 1 TD on the ground. Texas 24, San Jose State 7.
Wescott (0-1/0-1 ATS) – Texas 55, San Jose State 3
