At the Week 12 bye, the Commanders sit at 3-8, with 6 games remaining to salvage something from a disappointing season. The remaining schedule features 2 games against the 8-3 Eagles and one against the 9-2
Broncos.
It remains mathematically possible for the Commanders to finish the season with a winning record and even sneak into the Wild Card round. To do that, they just need to win all their remaining games and benefit from a miraculous combination of help from other teams. But the reality is, the probability of that occurring is vanishingly small, in the absence of the team’s star QB as well as starters and key contributors at multiple other positions.
So what are fans to do for the remainder of the regular season? Some might take the opportunity to vent their frustrations at the weakly failures of the injury-ravaged Commanders to field a competitive team. Personally, I find that pointless and tedious. But after what we’ve been through for the past 30+ years, I can’t really fault fans for doing whatever they need to do to get through another losing season.
Others will look for a bright side. Some glimmer of hope, flickering among the ashes of failure and disappointment, that next season will be better and see the franchise get back on track to becoming perennial playoff contenders once again.
And that, dear reader, is what the Tank Watch is all about. The most tangible benefit of tanking a season is what it does for a team’s draft position. For the remainder of the season, I will be checking in periodically on the Commanders’ progress up the draft order, and exploring the opportunities that improved draft position creates for the ongoing roster rebuild.
One of the chief concerns expressed by frustrated fans, including yours truly, is that the need to completely overhaul the roster has driven Adam Peters to load up on affordable veterans, mostly on short-term contracts. This has resulted in the Commanders having the oldest roster in the NFL. The team has a pressing need to get back to Peters’ stated intention of building through the draft. But that has become more challenging since Peters traded multiple Day 2 picks for LT Laremy Tunsil and CB Marshon Lattimore.
While it’s far from the perfect storm, this year’s draft is shaping up to potentially create the opportunity that AP needs to recoup some of the draft capital he traded away, and possibly even add another Day 1 or Day 2 pick. In this week’s edition of the Tank Watch, I will explore one possibility for accelerated roster rejuvenation via trading back from a high first round pick, which could become reality if the Commanders’ losing streak continues.
If the Season Ended Today
Here is how the draft order would shape up if the season ended today, courtesy of Tankathon.
The Commanders currently occupy the 7th position in the draft order, due to their win-loss record and strength of schedule (SOS) tiebreaker. It is still early in the process, and a lot can change in both components of the draft order formula as the season unfolds.
The Commanders are currently one of four teams with 3-8 records. Cleveland is ahead of them in the draft order due to weaker SOS. The Commanders enjoy a modest SOS advantage over the Bengals and a larger one over the Cardinals. These teams are likely to be jostling with the Commanders for draft position for the rest of the season.
Ahead of the 3-8 group are four teams on two wins. In order for the Commanders to improve their draft position, they need these teams or the Browns to win games. If the Commanders can avoid winning any more games themselves, a single win by the Browns, Raiders, Jets or Giants will move them up the draft order. Based on current SOS, the Saints would need to win two games to fall behind the Commanders.
The Tennessee Titans have a commanding lead as the sole one-win team. They would need to win two of six remaining games to fall behind the Commanders, which is probably not worth even thinking about at this point.
The Commanders have a few remaining games against teams they might be able to beat, if they can cut down on the mistakes and get a few starters back from IR. Most notable are the Week 14 matchup with the Vikings and Week 15 against the Giants. Consequently, there is a decent chance for them to win one or even two more games.
I won’t bother with two-win scenarios, which would be too disastrous for the tank to even think about. If they win one more game, and none of their current chief rivals do, they risk falling back behind the Rams (via Atlanta) into 12th place. While it would obviously be better for the Commanders’ draft position to lose out, there are still many possibilities for them to stay in the top 10 despite one more win. Winning two could make that challenging.
Eyes on the Prize – Trading Back for More Picks
In the Tank Watch Preview, I had a look at some of the elite draft prospects who could become available to the Commanders if they end up picking near the top of the first round. To kick off the weekly Tank Watch, I’ll explore possibilities for a big trade offer to allow Adam Peters to jumpstart the rebuild with an infusion of young talent.
While teams trade up for coveted players at a variety of positions, it is quarterbacks who most often generate the type of blockbuster trade offer that Peters needs to reset the roster. And that’s where things get interesting.
2026 Draft Class
How the 2026 QB class will shape up is anyone’s guess at this point in time. At the start of the college season, Arch Manning (Texas), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina), Cade Klubnick (Clemson), and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) were all seen as likely first round picks. All but Sellers have dropped out of the first round conversation after disappointing seasons.
As the season unfolded, three underclassmen have emerged as the top QB prospects, if they decide to declare for the draft. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the likely QB1 and is expected to enter the draft. Behind him are Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Oregon’s Dante Moore. Neither has indicated their intentions regarding the draft. Moore is a redshirt sophomore, with just 16 starts. But, according to recent reports, he is generating buzz among NFL scouts.
For this exercise, let’s assume that the prospect of being a top-10 pick is too enticing for any of these three to pass up. In that case, the top of the QB class shapes up as follows, based on current projections:
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana, Consensus Rank 3
Ty Simpson, Alabama, Consensus Rank 4
Dante Moore, Oregon, Consensus Rank 6
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina, Consensus Rank 21
Mendoza is the current QB1, and is likely to be off the board when the Commanders pick. If he declares, Simpson also has a good chance of going in the first few selections, which leaves Moore most likely to fall to the Commanders’ pick.
In addition to QBs, Edge Rueben Bain (Miami), LB/Edge Arvell Reese (Ohio State), WR Jordyn Tyson, and S Caleb Downs are considered to be the elite prospects in the draft class, and could be taken early, pushing a QB toward the Commanders. There is also a good possibility that teams will take top players at highly valued positions early, like OT (Spencer Fano, Francis Mauigoa, Kadyn Proctor), and CB (Mansoor Delane, Jermod McCoy).
And then there is Notre Dame RB Jeremiah Love, who is gaining steam in draft circles. Will some team defy the analytics and draft the elite RB of the draft class in the top 10?
One has to take draft projections in November with a big grain of salt. Nevertheless, based on how things are currently shaping up, there is at least a chance that a top QB prospect could drop to the Commanders’ pick at seventh overall. And the chance of a QB that someone else wants falling to their pick improves the higher they move in the draft order.
Potential Trade Partners
Of the six teams currently picking ahead of the Commanders, the Saints, Jets and Raiders all could potentially be targeting QBs in the early first round. If all three stay ahead of the Commanders and decide they like a QB in this class, then the Commanders could be out of luck. The Browns are also potential players, if Shedeur Sanders doesn’t impress down the stretch. But there is no predicting what that franchise will do.
Unless some team is enticed to move up for South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers, the Commanders may need some help to move past one or more of the QB needy teams picking ahead of them. Fans who are hopeful of a trade for more picks should cheer for the Saints, Jets, Raiders and Browns to stage late-season winning streaks.
In addition to those teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers are currently without a long-term solution at QB. With their playoff ambitions very much alive, it could be a challenge for them to draft a top QB prospect this year, without a trade, unless they really love Sellers.
With six games remaining, a lot will change. But based on the current outlook, there is a reasonable chance for the Commanders to find a trade partner willing to give up excess draft capital for their pick for the chance to draft a franchise QB. Those chances increase if they can avoid winning any more games and teams ahead of them win one or two down the stretch.
Trade Back Scenario
The Commanders have the luxury of not needing a starting QB, and are unlikely to take an OT early. Having two of the franchise positions ticked off the priority needs list puts them in a great position to entertain trade offers for their first round pick. If Adam Peters doesn’t receive an offer that makes it worth his while to trade back, he should have a choice of elite defensive prospects and top skill position players on offense at seventh overall. That’s a good position to be in.
What would it take to entice him to move back? Suppose that Dante Moore falls to the Commanders at seventh overall and the Steelers decide to move up from 16th place to draft him. According to the Rich Hill trade value chart, the difference between the seventh and 16th picks is 121 points, equivalent to pick number 48 in the second round. Coincidentally, that pick is currently held by Pittsburgh.
Adding another top 50 pick to move back 9 places in the first round might help the roster rebuild, but is it enough to convince Adam Peters’ to pass up on an elite defender, like Arvell Reese or Caleb Downs? Possibly not, in which case Pittsburgh will need to pay above trade chart value.
The Steelers currently hold pick number 80 in the third round, which is valued at 56 points. Adding pick number 80 to picks 16 and 48, in exchange for pick 7 represents a 13% overpay relative to trade chart value. This trade gives Adam Peters four picks in the top 80 (16, 48, 71, 80), after entering the draft with just two, without having to move out of the top half of the first round.
Prospects Available in a Trade Back
Was it worth it? Let’s have a look at players who might interest the Commanders at their new picks on the first two days of the draft.
Round 1, Pick 16
Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
6’0” | 190 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank: 14
Delane is the top shutdown corner in the draft class. Pairing him with Trey Amos would create problems for opposing passers.
T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson
6-3 | 265 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 18
Parker is a prototypical 4-3 DE who wins with power in the pass rush and sets the edge against OTs to contain the run.
Makai Lemon, WR, USC
5-11 | 195 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 19
Lemon is a savvy route runner who excels at contesting catches in the middle of the field and playing through contact to gain yards after the catch. He could be used as a Z-receiver opposite Terry, in the slot, or some combination of the two.
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
6-3 | 245 lbs | Age 20 | Consensus Rank 20
The Commanders need a succession plan for Zach Ertz. Sadiq might be an upgrade. Sadiq is the most physical blocker in the TE class and provides a mismatch threat in the passing game.
Round 2, Pick 48
Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama
6-1 | 204 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 42
Bernard is a scheme and positional versatile WR prospect who produces above his testing numbers through a combination of football IQ, technical refinement, and exceptional ball skills. He is more than a chain mover and upgrades the Commanders’ WR lineup.
Zion Young, Edge, Missouri
6-5 | 265 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 45
Young has prototypical size and length for a 4-3 DE. He uses strength and long arms to push the pocket in the pass rush and set the edge against the run. His power game and non-stop motor have made him productive against SEC competition, despite lacking the explosive athleticism of DEs who will be taken ahead of him.
Emmanuel Pregnon, G, Oregon
6-5 | 318 lbs | Age 24 | Consensus Rank 49
Chris Paul has been a pleasant surprise at LG this season, but is better in pass protection than run blocking and hits free agency this offseason. Pregnon looks like an upgrade. He is a physically imposing lineman with a nasty streak and strength to move defenders out of the way in the running game.
Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
6-0 | 205 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 53
A versatile safety prospect with blazing speed and elite coverage skills, Thieneman could be a major upgrade to the secondary following Quan Martin’s disappointing season. Some evaluators consider Thieneman to be an underrated prospect. He could be a riser in the draft process.
Round 3, Pick 80
Elijah Sarratt, WR, Indiana
6-2 | 209 lbs | Age 22 | Consensus Rank 71
Sarratt might be the Commanders’ selection with their original pick at 71. But if they like someone better there, the Steelers’ pick gives them a second shot. Sarratt gives JD5 a big receiving target with exceptional route running to create separation, strong hands and body control to make the catch, and strength to play through contact.
Dani Dennis-Sutton, DE, Penn State
6-5 | 265 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 75
Dennis-Sutton has an ideal build to play DE. He plays with strength and extension to set the edge and sheds blocks to make tackles. He is a better run defender than pass rusher at this stage of his development, but has an effective power rush to collapse the pocket and pressure QBs. He has achieved good production in the Big 10 this season, despite athletic limitations, and is rising up draft boards.
Domani Jackson, CB, Alabama
6-1 | 196 lbs | Age 21 | Consensus Rank 76
Big, physical press-man corner with footwork and athleticism to blanket receivers through the route. Triggers downhill to blow up ball carriers and screens. He is the kind of CB that made Dan Quinn famous.
Michael Trigg, TE, Oregon
6-4 | 240 lbs | Age 23 | Consensus Rank 78
Trigg is refined receiver with exceptional route running ability and extended catch radius to create mismatches and stretch opposing defenses. He needs to develop as a blocker, which is not unusual for TEs coming out of college. He can contribute as a receiver right away.
Week 13 Rooting Guide
To take the hard work out of tanking, each week I will provide a summary of teams to cheer for to improve the Commanders’ draft position.
Most Important Games
The Commanders can’t do much to improve their draft position, aside from not going backward. To move up in the draft order, they will need help. The teams ahead of them in the draft order need to get hot and start winning games. I don’t think there’s much that Tennessee can do to help, so our hopes are mainly pinned on the two-win teams and the Browns.
These games have the best chance of helping the Commanders move up the draft order:
Browns vs 49ers – The dog pound finds itself as a 6 point underdog to 49ers. That’s the kind of motivation Shedeur Sanders needs have a breakout game. Dawg pound till the end!
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins – The Saints are going through some stuff. But the Dolphins are hardly world beaters, either, despite beating Washington on the world stage. Spencer Rattler could be the guy. Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Not the Dolphins!
New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons – Atlanta, whose first round pick is held by the Rams, becomes a problem for the Commanders if Washington wins another game. But our focus needs to be on the Jets, who are one win ahead of the Commanders and have a stronger SOS. One unmatched win by New York will move the Commanders ahead of them. J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!
Las Vegas Raiders vs LA Chargers – The Raiders are another team who will fall behind the Commanders with a win thanks to a stronger SOS. I don’t know how likely that is, with the Vegas line currently at +9.5 pts. But stranger things have happened. Just win, baby!
New York Giants @ New England Patriots – I can’t tell Commanders’ fans to root for the Giants to win. But it is worth pointing out that they nearly beat Detroit on Sunday. If they can pull off the win and the Commanders’ game goes as expected, Washington will move up a spot in the draft order. Just sayin’ Let’s Go Giants!
Other Important Games
Wins in these games will help to mitigate threats from teams competing with the Commanders for draft position:
Bengals @ Ravens – Flacco has looked elite at times this season. Can he return to Super Bowl MVP form for one more game? A Bengals’ win helps limit the damage if Washington wins a game down the stretch. Who Dey!
Cardinals @ Buccaneers – The Bucs are on a three-game losing streak, so the timing couldn’t be better. Except the Cardinals are also on a three-game losing streak. But they did take the Jaguars to overtime, which gives them the advantage of momentum. Rise up, red sea!
