The Wisconsin Badgers saw their season come to a crushing halt, as they fell 83-82 in the final seconds against the High Point Panthers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
It was a wild back-and-forth battle between the two sides in a closely contested game, but Wisconsin was in control heading into the final stretch of the game, leading 70-62 with seven minutes left and even holding a four point lead with 50 seconds left. Ultimately, High Point found a way with a strong finish from Chase Johnston
to pull off the unexpected victory and send the Badgers home packing.
Wisconsin led for 33:38 of the game, showcasing the opportunity they had, even as High Point went on some crucial runs and found ways to respond and make things tough on the Badgers. When it came down to it, the Badgers just didn’t execute, while High Point went on a heater at the most opportune time to win the game.
Looking back one day after, did the Badgers squander its best chance at an NCAA Tournament run in the past few years?
2024
Going back to 2023-24, the Badgers made the No. 5 seed and were given No. 12 James Madison as their first-round draw, losing that game 73-61 on a late Friday night in Brooklyn. In that game, Wisconsin drew a very tough matchup for themselves, as they had to guard a unique player with Terrence Edwards Jr. that they didn’t match up well for.
James Madison was also well-rounded offensively and defensively, and played with a faster tempo, unlike the Badgers, who had the 304th-best adjusted tempo that season. It was clear they came out flat in that game, scoring only 20 points in the first half as they dug themselves into too deep a hole to come back from.
It was a matchup where toughness would be questioned and a faster start would be important, while the Dukes being able to speed things up forced Wisconsin into uncharacteristic turnovers.
2025
Last season, the Badgers had one of their best teams ever under Greg Gard, being ranked a No. 3 seed, which tied for the best under the head coach.
They cruised past their first round matchup as expected, but drew a very difficult matchup in the second round with No. 6 BYU. Both teams played at a similar pace and had the ability to shoot the ball very well, which could make things a shootout and much more unpredictable. Low and behold, the Badgers ended up losing 91-89 in a game where they shot well and had 37 points from John Tonje, but couldn’t overcome an early 11-point halftime deficit to win.
Gard has always alluded to how matchups play a significant factor when it comes to March Madness success, and the Badgers drew two difficult draws in back-to-back years that they couldn’t overcome to end their seasons short.
2026
After the strong finish to the season, Wisconsin earned a No. 5 seed and drew a High Point team that made headlines last year for their high-paced, high-scoring offense.
But, despite all that, I did not think High Point was the worst matchup for the Badgers. In fact, I made a strong argument for why the Panthers were actually one of the better matchups for Wisconsin.
To me, High Point was a quality team and the most dangerous factor about them was their ability to get hot, which is exactly what happened on Thursday with 15 three-pointers. That was extremely impressive, and yet, Wisconsin had every opportunity to win and still should have won that game.
High Point’s shooting was crucial in bringing them back into the game and having a strong finish to ultimately win, but it wasn’t the only factor in the game. Wisconsin had a very clear size advantage that would be crucial to limiting second-chance opportunities. Despite facing a team that liked to crash the offensive glass, the Badgers should have won the rebounding battle.
It’s a disappointment that they lost 40 to 37 and gave up 13 offensive rebounds, especially when they had a very similar game just last week against the Washington Huskies. In that one, it was a lot of issues with fundamentals. Guards weren’t looking to box out and were ball-watching, which led to a lot of opposing guards crashing the boards hard and securing another opportunity. That was the case again on Thursday, and that’s a problem.
Then came the turnovers. One of the most intriguing parts of the matchup was Wisconsin’s ability to limit turnovers at an extremely high rate, as well as High Point’s elite turnover differential. The Badgers have been one of the best at protecting the ball all season long, even against swarming defenses, thanks to the duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd.
Against a team with High Point’s pace, it was extremely important for Wisconsin to set the tone and play efficiently in the half court. But, playing uncharacteristically, the Badgers felt much more sped up and gave up 10 turnovers, with John Blackwell having five.
High Point turned that into 16 fastbreak points, even though they only had five points off turnovers. More importantly, they took crucial possessions away from the Badgers and forced them off their game, which many elite teams had struggled to do all season long. Once again, it was just uncharacteristic of this Wisconsin team, and a factor that didn’t really seem like it should’ve played as big a role as it did.
Then came the physicality aspect. Wisconsin had the advantage with their size, but it didn’t feel like that played nearly as big of a factor as it should have. Nolan Winter had a quiet 21 minutes in his return from injury, while Aleksas Bieliauskas had just two points, although there were other good parts of his game. Wisconsin was also just 16 of 29 at the rim and weren’t efficient enough on twos (22 of 42) despite shooting a significantly higher percentage of twos than they usually did.
Even with all of those factors, the Badgers lost by one, with High Point’s shooting being a key factor in the momentum swing. But I don’t think this was a bad matchup by any means for the Badgers.
Coming into the game, Wisconsin had the size advantage. They had been elite at protecting the basketball. They had just seen a game like this and learned from it in their past two Big Ten Tournament games. They just played uncharacteristically away from their regular style of basketball, and it came at the worst time.
That’s what March Madness is about. How well teams can translate their regular season success into one tournament game at a time. But it’s hard not to see what this team did this season and say that this wasn’t a squandered opportunity.
Wisconsin would’ve drawn a tough Arkansas team that beat Hawai’i in Round 1 and was running hot leading up to the tournament. But I didn’t even think the matchup there was as bad as many were suggesting, with factors like the ones above being key for Wisconsin.
This Badgers team had the opportunity to shock the world, just as they did on several occasions this year. Unfortunately, we won’t get to see that play out here in March.
