Illinois Defense by the Numbers
Completions Allowed / Game: 20.3
Receiving Yards Allowed / Game: 242.4
Yards Allowed / Rush: 4
Rushing Yards / Game: 132
Total Yards Allowed / Game: 374
Total Touchdowns Allowed / Game: 2.8
Illinois Roster
Key Players – Defense
*Note Pro Football Focus Grades are on a 0-100 scale.
Defensive Line: Gabe Jacas – 6’3”, 270 – Sr.
Season Stats – QB Pressure: 15 – Sacks: 4 – Tackles: 16 – TFL: 5 – FF: 2
PFF Grades – Def: 72.2 – Pass Rush: – 90.4 – Run Defense: – 42.1
Linebacker: Dylan Rosiek – 6’1”, 235 – Sr.
Season Stats – Tackles: 22 – Tackles for Loss: 2 – Int: 1
PFF Grades – Def: 70.4: – Run Def: 51.4 – Pass Rush: 65.8 – Coverage: 80.8
Cornerback: Jaheim Clarke – 6’1”, 175 – Jr.
Season Stats – Targeted: 7 – Rec Allowed: 3 – PBU: 1
PFF Grades – Def: 60 – Run Def: 55.1 – Tack: 53.6 – Coverage: 60.8
Safety: Matthew Bailey – 6’2”, 215 – Jr
Season Stats – Targeted: 10 – Rec Allowed: 8 – Tackles: 28
PFF Grades – Def: 75.5 – Run Def: 74 – Tack: 87.5 – Coverage: 73.3
Recent Performance
Interested in some good news, because I’ve got some. This Illinois defense was predicted to be one of the stronger units in the Big 10 heading into the season, but they’ve given up 95 points in the last two games.
Indiana took them behind the woodshed and laid an old-fashioned butt cutting on them. What was hyped as a battle between two ranked teams turned into a Ryan Waltersesque debacle for the Fighting Illini. Nothing positive comes from a 63-10 annihilation on national television. The Illinois defense gave up 31 first downs (18 rushing – 12 passing), 312 rushing yards (6.4 YPC), and 267 passing yards. When all was said and done, the Hoosiers hung eight touchdowns on Brett Bielema’s defense.
The USC game was better, because honestly, it’s doesn’t get much worse than the Indiana game, but it was far from a stellar performance. Illinois came away with a 34-32 victory over USC, but the offense ultimately won the game for them, despite the defense. They gave up 29 first downs (7 rushing, 21 passing), 126 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) and 364 passing yards. The Trojans only managed to put four touchdowns on the board, compared to Indiana eight, and I guess that’s progress?
The USC game is probably the best look at the Illinois defense, as everything went wrong for them against Indiana. However, the one glaring weakness for the Fighting Illini in both games was downfield coverage.
Key Points for the Purdue Offense
Press the Edge with the Read Option in the Run Game
USC racked up 69 yards off the left side of the Illinois defense and 55 yards off the right side against the Illinois defense front last week. They only managed 16 yards between the tackles. Purdue has the type of run game with Browne and Mockobee to have similar success. In fact, I think Purdue can do a better job of attacking the edges against Illinois because of Browne’s ability to pull the ball and be a true running threat in the zone read.
Purdue isn’t going to win this game on the ground because they need to turn this into a shootout, but I think they may be able to find some big plays off the edge, especially if the Illinois defense ends start pinning their ears back and coming after Browne. All it takes is one defensive end to lose contain, and Browne to make the correct read to pull the ball.
Go Long!
USC threw six passes over twenty yards and completed five of them for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Purdue has the talent on the outside to challenge Illinois down the field as well, with Branch and Tuggle—the Illinois safeties like to get involved in the run game. The first time you see an Illinois safety make a play in the run game around the line of scrimmage, it’s time for the Boilermakers to look deep and hope for the best.
If the offensive line can hold up, there will be a few quick strike opportunities for Browne and the receivers…but that’s a big “if”.
No Xavier Scott Changes the Game
Illinois star corner Xavier Scott might be out for the season. He was the fire extinguisher in the Illinois secondary. If a receiver needed cooling off, Scott drew the assignment. Needless to say, Illinois does not have a replacement for him on the roster. USC’s star receiver Makai Lemon took full advantage of his absence to the tune of 11 receptions for 151 yards and two touchdowns.
The Fighting Illini defense wants to play man-to-man defense, when possible, but I’m not sure they have the personnel to get the job done without Scott. Purdue doesn’t have a receiver of the Makai Lemon caliber, but they have enough receiver depth to find favorable matchups.
The gulf in class between Scott and the other corners is vast. They brought Jaheim Clarke off the bench for his first action of the season last game in Scott’s stead and USC went after the newcomer to the lineup. When the Boilermakers go four-wide, the fourth receiver will be lined up against Illinois’ fifth-best corner. I like those odds for Purdue.
Overall
Illinois is going to score against Purdue’s defense.
Purdue can score against Illinois’ defense.
This game needs to get into the 30s for the Boilermakers to have a shot at pulling off the victory. That means Browne needs to sling it around the lot, and Illinois needs to drop a few interceptions.
There’s a reason why the Fighting Illini are a 9.5-point favorite, but consider Purdue a live dog in this game if the offense clicks into gear early.
