When Indiana and Kentucky announced that they’d be reviving a rivalry series, back in 2023, the teams were led by Mike Woodson and John Calipari, respectively. A lot has changed for both programs since
then.
For starters, the ground has even shifted for each program dramatically since the Week 4 AP men’s basketball rankings came out on November 24th, when Kentucky was ranked 19th and Indiana in the 25 spot.
What looked like a meeting between powers rising this season will now be a game between teams looking to establish identities that will carry them through the months to come. Neither team is ranked, with both looking for a resume win before conference play begins in full.
Here are three things to know about the game:
The record
Kentucky went from the AP Top 10 to unranked because the Wildcats had four losses by December 5th, two of them being blowouts on national TV. Some of this can be explained by Mark Pope’s aggressive non-conference scheduling, but not all of it.
The Wildcats have a pair of respectable losses to Louisville and North Carolina, two games in which Kentucky was able to keep within 10 points against a pair of teams that are still ranked. Then there’s the 17-point loss to Michigan State and the 35-point (!!!) neutral site loss to Gonzaga that had some fans calling for Pope’s job.
Because none of the losses have come against bad teams, Kentucky is still one spot ahead of Indiana in KenPom’s national rankings and favored to win at home, narrowly. It’s a team that’s struggled with consistency though, being non-competitive in 50% of its games against high-major programs so far.
Kentucky’s defense
Despite the losses, Kentucky grades pretty well overall on offense and defense. In year two as head coach, Pope has had some time to install his system while also bringing in the blue chip talent that the program became accustomed to under Calipari.
There are a few glaring weaknesses though, things that Indiana should be able to exploit if the Hoosiers come out like they did Tuesday against Penn State.
The first is Kentucky’s assist rate allowed, which, at 59.9%, puts them below 300th nationally. Gonzaga, Michigan State, and Louisville all had at least 20 assists in wins against Kentucky. Indiana currently assists on 67.5% of its baskets, putting it in the top ten nationally. Darian DeVries will need his group to be ready to exploit this.
Moving the ball against Kentucky should be made slightly easier by the fact that they’ve really struggled to force non-steal turnovers this year, again, over 300th nationally in forcing opponent mistakes. They make up for it by limiting their own turnovers on offense, but it’s not a group that will be as comfortable pressing as some of Indiana’s other opponents so far this year.
Mark Pope, Year Two
As discussed above, the rivalry series is coming back with each program looking to establish its footing both this year and in the big picture of the sport. Being in his second year at the helm, Pope appeared to have the edge on DeVries in the race to rebuild, but the rocky start to the season puts that in some doubt.
Record aside, Pope will have some inherent advantages over DeVries, starting with the fact that Kentucky is in the top 150 in minutes continuity, with 29.5% of last year’s minutes returning. Indiana has zero players left from last year’s team, and only a handful of guys who have ever played together before at any level.
Pope also brought in a top ten recruiting class, with elite prospects from the high school and transfer ranks giving him a team that many picked to be a threat come March. The pieces have yet to jell, as the record demonstrates, but Kentucky will be the more talented team on paper coming in and looking to prove that it wasn’t (too) overrated to start the season.
Whether Pope’s experience at Kentucky is enough to give him the win in the first of four scheduled matchups remains to be seen. Whatever the result though, it’s worth remembering that Kentucky and Indiana are in slightly different places right now.
Pope has made an NCAA Tournament and brings back some of his guys, while DeVries built a roster on the fly and just ten games as Indiana’s head coach under his belt. This will likely make a difference on Saturday.
