All of us here at Acme Packing Company have been theorizing as to why Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has become a bad head coach, and I would like to proffer up my theory: That Matt is secretly an old man who fell in love with the Kyle Shanahan system for all the wrong reasons. Now that certain aspects of the Shanny offense have broken down, the wrong reasons are all of the reasons that he has left.
Shanahan fundamentally builds a team with “big guys who catch,” and then dares you, with the threat
of the run, to use heavier defensive personnel. Then, once the defensive big guys are out there, he will attack with his George Kittles and Deebo Samuels and Christian McCaffreys of the world in the passing game. It’s fundamentally about the passing game. The offense does run, and it runs more often than many teams, but running is not the point. Big plays in the passing game against slow linebackers and third-string safeties are the point.
Matt also loves his heavies, but I now think that for Matt, running actually is the point, and that passing is something you do when it’s absolutely necessary. Running – actual running, not just the threat of running – has now dominated everything the Packers do for a full season, and it’s had a profound negative effect. Consider:
- Aaron Banks was brought in to beef up the offensive line, and they used a second-round pick on Anthony Belton for the same reason. (This is also Gute’s fault, but the driving force is certainly Matt.)
- Jordan Morgan has been playing inside at guard whenever possible, even though there is compelling evidence that he may be better outside.
- They drafted Savion Williams, who is more of a glorified running back than an actual receiver.
- The actual real receiver they drafted, Matthew Golden, is now injured because Matt had him try to do the job of a 6-4, 220-pound receiver and block heavies.
- They run on second and short more than any other team, while smarter run-oriented teams use this opportunity to hit deep shots.
6. Even though the offensive line has been worse at run blocking this year, they have been running more, if anything.
7. Their intended air yards have been declining as time has gone on. And checkdowns are like running.
Sometimes you will play a game that is so formative, so impactful, that it shapes how you do everything going forward, and I suspect for Matt LaFleur, the Malik Willis games served that purpose. They were fun! They were clever, and more importantly, proved how Clever Matt could be, and all by foregoing passing for running to the maximum amount possible.
In Willis’ game against his former team, the Titans, he ran for 73 yards on just 6 carries while Emanuel Wilson and Josh Jacobs chipped in an additional 93 yards on 26 carries. Jayden Reed also contributed 19 yards on two jet sweeps. Willis only threw the ball 19 times, but he hit Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft for some big plays, and it was enough for the offense to put up 23 points (plus a Jaire Alexander pick-6). Willis also led the team to victory over the Colts 16-14 while throwing just 14 passes. He ran for 41 yards on 6 carries, but the star here was Jacobs, who ran for 151 yards on an insane 32 carries. All in all, the Packers’ backs and receivers, plus Willis, carried the ball 53 times for 261 yards. That is frankly insane.
And it’s worth noting that while the Packers did win and ran effectively, they mostly won because overmatched rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson threw three interceptions, all while poor Jonathan Taylor was ripping off 103 yards on just 12 carries for the Colts.
And so the Packers won both Willis starts, and they ran often and fairly effectively. But they mostly won because they played against two legitimately terrible quarterbacks and not because they ran well. That running mostly served to protect Malik Willis (who I like and is a good backup) from the kinds of disasters that were happening on the other side of the ball.
The Packers have leaned more and more heavily into “the importance of running.” It’s clear in their choice of giant linemen, in their play selection, and in how they handle high-leverage situations. It’s also bad, and if this team is going to be an actual Super Bowl contender, Matt LaFleur is going to have to learn to love the pass again. Or, failing that, understand its importance.
