It’s that time of year. The trade deadline is creeping up (Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. ET), the Bengals are 4-2 and coming off a 35-13 beatdown of the Ravens, and two of the biggest names at running back are reportedly on the table. Jonathan Taylor in Indianapolis. Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia.
If you’ve spent any time on Bengals Twitter this week, you’ve seen the photoshops, debates and talking points.
And I get it. Chase Brown hasn’t looked like Chase Brown this year. In Baltimore, while the offense was
hanging 35 straight points in the second half, he finished with 11 carries for 39 yards.
Samaje Perine has been somewhat effective in a supplemental role (4.1 yards per carry), but the longest run by either him or Brown has been 15 yards this season. That’s been the story this season—a lack of explosive run plays.
But ESPN’s Dan Graziano made a case this week: the Bengals should be buyers at the deadline. Just maybe not at running back.
The numbers aren’t pretty
Let’s not sugarcoat it. Through six games, Brown has 82 carries for 285 yards. That’s 3.5 yards a pop with one rushing touchdown. He hasn’t topped 80 yards in a game, and he’s been held to 61 or fewer in five of six. His share of the carries has slipped too, from about 72 percent over the first four games to roughly 49 percent since, with Samaje Perine eating into the workload.
Perine himself had a rough stretch in Weeks 2-4, logging eight carries for 22 yards (2.8 yards per carry), zero touchdowns, and a long run of just five yards.
They’re both still catching the ball: 28 grabs for 143 yards for Brown, and seven for 61 yards on Perine’s statline. But nobody’s confusing this with last season.
Why not Taylor or Barkley?
Graziano’s argument comes down to three things, and they’re hard to argue with.
- The price. Both backs cost a lot, in salary and in what you’d have to send back. That’s a steeper hill for Cincinnati than for most teams.
- It’s not who the Bengals are. In Graziano’s words, “it would be very unlike Cincinnati to surrender draft capital for them.” This front office builds through the draft and pays its own. Shipping picks for a 27-plus-year-old running back on a big deal would be a total departure. While the Bengals deviated from this a bit this offseason, that was much more of an outlier than a possible trend.
- Brown has earned some rope. Remember last year? He started slow then too, and finished with 1,019 rushing yards, a team-record 69 catches, 1,456 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns. That guy is still in there.
Instead, Graziano would look at linebackers and defensive backs first. And if the Bengals want to juice the offense, he’d go after an offensive lineman or a tight end before a running back.
What’s the plan going forward?
Here’s the part I keep coming back to: 3.5 yards a carry is rarely a one-man problem. When a back who just ran for over 1,000 yards suddenly can’t find room, I look at the guys in front of him first. Swap in Taylor or Barkley behind the same blocking, and I’m not convinced you get the version of them you’re paying for.
However, the Bengals’ offensive line has been performing pretty well this season. So, scheming up a successful run game remains an issue under Zac Taylor. And, as noted in Baltimore, Cincinnati may be reverting back to more of a shotgun/spread look in a pass-first approach.
This offense goes as Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins go. Baltimore just reminded everybody of that. The run game doesn’t need to carry the team. It needs to be good enough that defenses can’t sit back in two-high shells all day.
While Cincinnati invested pretty heavily at safety, both Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger have been battling injuries. Erick All Jr. is on Injured Reserve, while linebacker remains a weakness on the defensive side of the ball. A big-ticket back helps one position and costs you the picks that keep this roster stocked.
And if Duke Tobin’s going to spend draft capital, it may be better served to go toward a defense that still needs a difference-maker at linebacker or in the secondary, or to get a suitable replacement for All.
That’s the move that could matter in January and cost less capital, as Graziano notes.
“If I were the Bengals, I’d be looking harder at potentially available linebackers or defensive backs ahead of the trade deadline than running backs,” Graziano wrote.
So, if the Bengals were to attack one of the positions, who would you like to see them target? Send us your thoughts down in the comments section!
