The offseason is almost over, and the 2026 NCAA softball season is about to begin, which will be the 45th season of NCAA-sanctioned ball. All 286 Division 1 teams are seeking the ultimate prize of a national championship, regardless of how unlikely that goal may seem. That fact is also true for the ten teams in the Mountain West Conference. Only one of the teams in this conference has tasted that ultimate glory before, that being Fresno State, and only three teams have made the College World Series.
Heading into the season, let’s take a look at these ten teams and see which have the best chance of making some history in 2026.
1. RV/RV Grand Canyon Lopes
2025 Result: 47-8 (21-2 WAC), Regular Season: 1st, Tournament: 1st, Made NCAA Tournament, Lost in Tucson Regional.
This Week’s Games:
VS. Southern Utah (Feb. 6, 4:oo p.m. MT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Weber State (Feb. 6, 6:30 p.m. MT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Southern Utah (Feb. 7, 1:15 p.m. MT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Santa Clara (Feb. 7, 4:00 p.m. MT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Santa Clara (Feb. 8, 10:00 a.m. MT, Mountain West Network)
Despite being new to the conference, GCU is the consensus favorite to win it. GCU is the four-time reigning WAC Tournament Champion, thus having made it to the NCAA Tournament each of the last four years.
With a chorus lineup of elite hitters and pitchers, the Lopes lost just six games prior to the NCAA Tournament, ranking fifth in the NCAA in batting average and third in ERA. The scariest part of this team is the fact that almost all of their players from 2025, save for the country’s best pitcher, Meghan Golden, are returning for 2026.
The Lopes are led by preseason Mountain West Player of the Year Savannah Kirk, who is coming off of a sophomore season where she hit an absurd average of .505. With a supporting cast including Emily Gonzales, Jada Cooper, and Willa Ford, all of whom recorded an OPS above 1.000 in 2025, and a still-elite pitching staff, it’s hard to imagine these Lopes will slow down against stiffer competition in the Mountain West.
The Lopes were picked by the league’s coaches to finish first in the conference, earning six first-place votes and 77 total points, just exceeding the totals of runners-up Nevada (four first-place votes, 73 points). GCU was also picked by D1 Softball as the #3 team in their preseason mid-major Top 25, only being beaten by fellow mid-major powers Florida Atlantic and Liberty. GCU also received votes in both major polls, being ranked #29 in the ESPN.com/USA Softball Poll. The Lopes are the consensus favorites to win the conference, now they need to prove that they are what we all seem to think they are.
2. NR/RV San Diego State Aztecs
2025 Result: 38-19 (16-6 MWC), Regular Season: 2nd, Tournament: 1st, Made NCAA Tournament, Lost in Regional Elimination Rounds
This Week’s Games:
VS. Minnesota (Feb. 6, 4:30 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Loyola Chicago (Feb. 6, 7:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Miami (Ohio) (Feb. 7, 2:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Kentucky (Feb. 6, 7:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
Despite being the four-time defending MWC Tournament champions, the Aztecs enter 2026 having been picked to finish third in the conference. On the surface, this kind of makes sense, as the Aztecs’ pitching staff, which ranked second-best in the MWC a year ago, is undergoing a complete rebuild this offseason.
Previous stars Cece Cellura and Grace Uribe are gone, the former to LSU and the latter to graduation. Thankfully, the Aztecs appear to have a strong core ready to replace the old guard, led by sophomore Ava Schaffel, who tallied 38.1 innings in 2025, recording 24 strikeouts and an ERA of 2.01. The Aztecs also raided the core of conference rival Fresno State, snagging the fourth-best pitcher in the conference, Key-annah Pu’a.
In the hitting realm, the Aztecs are just as solid, if not more so, than they were last year. Standouts Julie Holcomb, reigning MWC Defensive Player of the Year Quinn Waiki, and UCF transfer Lala Macario should make an impact for the team, as should two-way freshman Matti Kwarta, who is coming off of a down senior season where she hit .500. Yes, you read that right, as Kwarta’s junior season was one where she hit a fantastic .609 with an other-wordly OPS of 1.974.
I also think the disrespect they received in the coaches poll should fuel a fire underneath them. This will be a great season for the Aztecs, but I am still concerned about whether their horribly weak schedule will hurt them come Selection Sunday, especially if they are near the bubble. However, none of that will matter if the Aztecs achieve their goal for this year: leaving the MWC on a five-peat.
3. Nevada Wolf Pack
2025 Result: 41-14 (18-4 MWC), Regular Season: 1st, Tournament: 3rd, Missed NCAA Tournament
This Week’s Games:
vs. Illinois (Feb. 6, 9:30 a.m. PT, ESPN+)
at #13/12 LSU (Feb. 6, 12:00 p.m. PT, SEC Network+)
vs. NC State (Feb. 7, 9:30 a.m. PT, ESPN+)
at #13/12 LSU (Feb. 7, 2:30 p.m. PT, SEC Network+)
vs. Lamar (Feb. 8, 7:00 a.m. PT, coverage not provided)
The reigning regular season champs are the Nevada Wolf Pack, who fell to SDSU in the loser’s final of the MWC Tournament in 2025. The Wolf Pack, despite not receiving votes in either of the preseason polls, were ranked by Mountain West coaches as the second-best team in the conference, ahead of SDSU, who did receive at least on vote in the D1Softball poll. This is an opinion that I would love to share right now, but the Wolf Pack have a bit too many questions to answer before I comfortably can.
One area where I have zero concern is in the pitching staff. Led by projected MWC Pitcher of the Year Hailey McLean, the Wolf Pack find themselves in the enviable position of having four projected ace pitchers (Tess Bumiller, Ainsley Berlingeri, and Iowa transfer Talia Tretton), along with two reliable relief arms (Jessica McPartland, freshman Sofie Seese).
The place I need answers is in the Wolf Pack’s hitting core, where they just lost one of the greatest players in team history, Aaliyah Jenkins, to graduation, and their second-best home run hitter, Haley Painter, to Purdue. While the Clark sisters, Madison and Bailie, should be able to keep the Wolf Pack’s lethal base-snagging tendencies alive, replacing the level of production Jenkins and Painter brought to Nevada will be challenging.
If they can figure out who their leaders at the plate will be, Nevada has the schedule to make an unshakeable case to be in the dance, as the Wolf Pack will play 12 games against power conference schools, 12 against teams that were either ranked or received votes in the preseason polls, and 13 against teams that reached the NCAA Tournament in 2025, all of which are the most in the conference. This is a demanding slate for any squad, much less a mid-major school, but Hayward clearly has confidence in her team to take care of business.
4. Fresno State Bulldogs
2025 Result: 37-20 (15-7 MWC), Regular Season: 3rd, Tournament: 2nd, Missed NCAA Tournament
This Week’s Games:
VS. SIUE (Feb. 6, 3:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Idaho State (Feb. 6, 5:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Idaho State (Feb. 7, 1:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. SIUE (Feb. 7, 3:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
The Bulldogs, likely due to losing head coach Stacie May-Johnson to Iowa in the offseason, along with their top three pitchers to the transfer portal, were picked to finish 6th in the MWC in 2026. This is an opinion I do not share, as I trust the legendary Fresno State softball program to make a smooth transition to new skipper Charlotte Morgan.
The Bulldogs’ hitting core was also ripped apart by transfers and graduation, leaving now-senior Natalie Elias to take up the mantle for her squad. She will be joined by former CSUN star Tiara Westbrook, who was named to the 2025 All-Big West First Team, leading CSUN in home runs (10), RBIs (38), total bases (88), slugging percentage (.595), on base percentage (.435), batting average (.351), on-base percentage (.435), and OPS (1.030). The ‘Dogs also have some promising freshmen, such as Arianna Aguayo and Jayda Crosby, who I would expect to make an impact right away, given the Bulldogs’ track record for developing talent.
As for the pitching core, only CSUN transfer Lauryn Carranco is a proven talent at the collegiate level, but their freshman class is one consisting of a lot of two-way prospects, such as Christal Lopez and Alyssa Loza, which bodes well considering their new head coach was once a two-way star for Alabama.
Overall, this is mostly a pick based off of past reputation. I wouldn’t be too shocked if the Bulldogs fall short of my lofty expectations for them, but I fully expect this administration to navigate these choppy waters with care. After all, this school is one of the greatest programs in NCAA softball history.
5. New Mexico Lobos
2025 Result: 21-30-1 (6-16 MWC), Regular Season: 8th, Missed Conference and NCAA Tournaments
This Week’s Games:
at Baylor (Feb. 6, 2:00 p.m. MT, ESPN+)
vs. #24/23 Mississippi State (Feb. 7, 8:30 a.m. MT, ESPN+)
vs. Northwestern State (Feb. 7, 11:00 a.m. MT, ESPN+)
vs. Wichita State (Feb. 8, 8:00 a.m. MT, coverage not provided)
vs. Northwestern State (Feb. 8, 10:30 a.m. MT, coverage not provided)
The Lobos were picked in a tie for 8th in the conference this season, which is an opinion that I, again, do not share. Despite continually being buried in mediocrity throughout this program’s history, the Lobos are one of few teams in the MWC that maintained the majority of their core this offseason, outside of the graduation of top hitter Ashley Archuleta. Continuity is so very rare for mid-major teams in the current day and age of college sports, so it’s rather refreshing to see a team bring a lot of talent back.
Now, these players, despite their previous level of success, are not pushovers by any means. Allie Williams (.339), Jessica Deleon (.338, led UNM in RBIs), DeNae Vasquez-Dickson (.331) and Miracle McKenzie (.275, led UNM in home runs) are all returning for 2026, and should benefit greatly from the hiring of recent Utah State star Ariel Fifita as an assistant coach.
Top pitcher McKenna Guest also makes a return to the ABQ for 2026, being joined by new freshmen Caitlin Benningfield and Arianna Capek, the latter of whom recorded over 600 strikeouts, with remarkably similar stats as those of former #2 pitcher Natalie Fritz, who did quite well for herself as a freshman.
Yes, there are indeed some changes, the loss of Archuleta being the most glaring among them, but UNM has suffered the fewest losses of any team in the conference not named Grand Canyon, which could do wonders for them in 2026.
6. Utah State Aggies
2025 Result: 26-26 (11-11 MWC), Regular Season: 5th, Tournament: 5th, Missed NCAA Tournament
This Week’s Games:
vs. Abilene Christian (Feb. 5, 1:00 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
at #11/11 Texas A&M (Feb. 5, 6:00 p.m. MT, SEC Network+)
vs. Abilene Christian (Feb. 6, 6:00 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
vs. Bryant (Feb. 7, 8:00 a.m. MT, coverage not provided)
vs. Providence (Feb. 7, 1:00 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
Next, we reach a team I have a similar consensus on as that of the conference’s coaches: Utah State. Since 1997, the Aggies have ranked as one of the absolute worst softball programs in the country, finishing just three seasons above .500 in the last 29 years (one being the pandemic-shortened season of 2020). However, it seems that the Aggies teams we have seen of late are trending in the right direction.
The Aggies are yet another team that lost the majority of their core this offseason, which is why I have them a bit below where they were in the coaches poll. However, the Aggies made out of the transfer portal very well, acquiring a promising sophomore, Keely Goushá, from Boise State, as well as acquiring former national No. 6 recruit Kate Vance, who redshirted in her first season for her home-state Arizona Wildcats. It’s unclear how well Vance will do in her first season in Logan, but if she performs even similarly to her high school days, she will immediately be a thorn in everyone’s side.
Kya Pratt, Grace Matej, Alex Bunton and Kaylee Erickson return to the plate this season for USU, as will promising prospects Jakobi Nebeker and Hailey Holliday. On top of all of this, the Aggies completely overhauled their horrific pitching staff in the offseason, with Kendall Cochran likely to lead the Aggies in the circle as a freshman. Considering the Aggies won 26 games a year ago despite pumping out an ERA of a ghastly 6.48, I’d say that even solid pitching will do the job in most games.
I think Utah State gets back to the conference tournament this year, and finally reaches the over-.500 oasis for the first time in over a decade. In my season preview, I predicted that they would do so near the end of the year, likely via tiebreaker over…
7. Boise State Broncos
2025 Result: 34-22 (11-11 MWC), Regular Season: 4th, Tournament: 4th, Missed NCAA Tournament
This Week’s Games:
at Loyola Marymount (Feb. 5, 7:00 p.m. MT, ESPN+)
vs. #22/24 Ole Miss (Feb. 6, 4:00 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
at Cal State Fullerton (Feb. 6, 7:30 p.m. MT, ESPN+)
vs. CSUN (Feb. 7, 1:30 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
vs. Portland State (Feb. 7, 4:00 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
at Cal State Fullerton (Feb. 8, 11:00 a.m. MT, ESPN+)
I’ll be honest, I was very surprised to see the Broncos ranked as the #4 team in the coaches poll. Even I doubted the idea of predicting that Boise State would miss the tournament, but never would I have imagined how high the consensus was on the Broncos. Quite frankly, I don’t see why said consensus is that way.
If you thought other teams in this sport got decimated this offseason, Boise State would like you to hold their spuds. The Broncos, a team known for considering pitching to be an optional distraction, lost seven of their eight best hitters in the offseason to transfers and graduation. Only now-sophomore Quinn Southerland remains, and the only new or old player that gives me any confidence heading into the season is Utah Tech transfer Jorja Crider, who drove in 23 runs in just 26 starts, leading her team in home runs (7) and in OPS (.961), all while being a spot-starter freshman. I expect big things from Crider, but have tempered ones for everybody I haven’t mentioned.
Now-sophomore Olivia Bauer was the Broncos’ best pitcher in 2025, yet only recorded an ERA of 3.94. However, the Broncos did score a massive win in their recruiting class: No. 32 national recruit Loula-Rae McNamara, who posted stats in high school that indicate that, while it may take some time for her to adjust, she will undoubtedly emerge as a superstar with the proper time to develop.
Time, however, is something the Broncos do not have. While Boise State has a great deal of talent on their roster, most of it is unproven at the college level, and a few good players is not good enough to consistently win. All of this is why I truly think the Broncos will be the biggest disappointment in their final season of Mountain West play. In the end, I may be mistaken, but I just don’t foresee success for the Broncos this year.
8. UNLV Lady Rebels
2025 Result: 24-25 (7-15 MWC), Regular Season: 7th, Missed Conference and NCAA Tournaments
This Week’s Games:
VS. Cal Baptist (Feb. 5, 6:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. UIC (Feb. 6, 6:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Cal Baptist (Feb. 7, 3:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. UIC (Feb. 7, 6:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
VS. Purdue (Feb. 8, 12:00 p.m. PT, Mountain West Network)
The Rebels were the other team picked to finish tied for 8th in the coaches poll, and unlike with New Mexico, I agree with that assessment in the case of UNLV. The Rebels are entering a new era, with one of the best players in the storied history of UNLV softball, Ariana Martinez, having graduated in the offseason.
UNLV was mediocre a year ago at the plate, and outright bad when you remove the outlier of Martinez. Charelle Aki is the only remaining Lady Reb to hit over .300 a year ago, as Karmyna Beccera and Jesse Farrell both left the program in the offseason. The only other player that looks like she could be good is New Mexico transfer Keyannah Chavez, who started 116 games in her three years with the Lobos, batting .310 with an OPS of .860.
In the circle, the Rebs have a lockdown #1 option in Yanina Sherwood, who was immediately the best pitcher on a not-great pitching team as a freshman. Sherwood will almost certainly improve in year 2, and she will be joined in this effort by freshman Sophie Stockam, who looks to be a better version of Sherwood, combining elite pitching with remarkable consistency at the plate.
UNLV’s pitching core looks to be stout, but the hitting core overall looks a bit concerning. I think the Rebels will benefit from an easy nonconference schedule overall, then wind up faltering a bit in conference play, missing the conference Tournament for the second straight year.
9. Colorado State Rams
2025 Result: 16-32 (6-16 MWC), Regular Season: 9th, Missed Conference and NCAA Tournaments
This Week’s Games:
vs. Cal Poly (Feb. 6, 10:30 a.m. MT, coverage not provided)
vs. Saint Mary’s (Feb. 6, 1:00 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
vs. San Diego (Feb. 7, 10:30 a.m. MT, coverage not provided)
at UC Davis (Feb. 7, 3:30 p.m. MT, coverage not provided)
at Sacramento State (Feb. 8, 10:30 a.m. MT, ESPN+)
Despite the Rams being ranked two spots above where I have them in the MWC coaches poll, the bottom four ranked teams in the conference all fell between 21 and 26 points in the MWC coaches poll, so I don’t believe I am too far off of the general consensus surrounding Colorado State.
Preseason All-Mountain West team nominee Kaylynn English will almost certainly be the Rams’ leader at the plate in 2026, having been one of just two Rams to top a .300 batting average in 2025. Autumn Rutherford, Jailey Wilson, and Kyra Smith are who I would expect to join her in improving this core. Smith, in particular, only took 88 at-bats last year as a freshman, but still tied for the team lead in home runs.
As for the Rams’ league-worst pitching staff from last season, marginal improvements have been made through adding former Iowa pitcher Andrea Jaskowiak, who should help stabilize things somewhat alongside the Rams’ best pitcher from 2025, Reagan Wick.
Overall, I really don’t think the Rams will show too much improvement this season, but I also don’t think they will be nearly as bad as they were last year. After all, when the previous watermark is a winning percentage of .250, it’s really difficult to sink even lower than that the next year.
10. San Jose State Spartans
2025 Result: 22-28 (9-13 MWC), Regular Season: 6th, Tournament: 6th, Missed NCAA Tournament
This Week’s Games:
vs. #20/19 Oklahoma State (Feb. 6, 11:30 a.m. PT, coverage not provided)
at. #17/18 Stanford (Feb. 6, 5:00 p.m. PT, ACC Network)
vs. California (Feb. 7, 1:00 p.m. PT, coverage not provided)
at. #17/18 Stanford (Feb. 7, 6:00 p.m. PT, ACC Network)
vs. California (Feb. 8, 10:00 a.m. PT, coverage not provided)
Bringing up the rear in the preseason power rankings are the San Jose State Spartans, and it’s easy to see why. The consensus worst team in the conference for 2026, the Spartans did little to improve their league-worst hitting core in the offseason, all the while losing both key pieces to their above-average rotation to graduation.
Preseason All-MWC Team electee Ahmiya Noriega is truly just about all the Spartans have heading into 2026, outside of maybe Shay McDowell and Gabriella Sotelo. Not a single one of the other hitters the Spartans had in 2025 were consistent, and none of the pitchers the Spartans added, or currently have, look to be a reliable starting option. As the Spartans proved last season, you can obtain success with a terrible hitting core if you have great pitching. If you don’t have great pitching and still don’t have a good hitting core, on the other hand, things get significantly harder.
Not to mention the Spartans’ opening MTE slate, which is comically brutal. It doesn’t look like the Spartans will have a prayer of winning any of these games, and an 0-5 start could, and likely will, begin a downward spiral for this year’s Spartans squad. This is the prediction I presently feel the most confident about.
Closing
That does it for my preseason articles. Once we get into the season, weekly recaps will be posted every Wednesday, followed by updated power rankings every Thursday. Once each team gets into conference play, I plan to add series recaps to the lineup as well. Let me know what you think of my predictions and rankings. I look forward to seeing how this season shakes out.
