Last week ATS: 10-8 (5-4 National, 5-4 B1G)
Season ATS: 125-111 (58-55 National, 67-56 B1G)
It’s hard to believe the regular season is over. At least we closed out things on a positive note, moving a couple more games above .500 as we watched Ohio State right some of the wrongs of the previous
four years.
Now it’s time for one more big week before we head into bowl season. There are some interesting games on the schedule, capped off by the two best teams in the country squaring off in Indianapolis on Saturday night.
Marquee Championship Games
American: No. 24 North Texas (-2.5) v. No. 20 Tulane – Friday 8:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Not only is this a battle between coaches who have already taken other jobs, the winner will be headed to the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team.
North Texas loves to put points on the scoreboard, recording at least 50 points in five of their last six games. Along with throwing for over 3,800 yards and 29 touchdowns this year, Drew Mestemaker doesn’t make mistakes, tossing just four interceptions.
Tulane is more of a ground-and-pound type of team. BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff has 14 rushing touchdowns, which is the same number of passing touchdowns he has in his first season as starting quarterback for the Green Wave. I’m just not convinced Tulane has the horses to keep up with the Mean Green on Friday night.
If North Texas just ahead early, Jon Sumrall might start thinking about how he is going to run things at Florida.
North Texas 38, Tulane 28
Big 12: No. 11 BYU v. No. 4 Texas Tech (-12.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ABC
BYU has revenge on their mind after they were dominated in Lubbock last month. Since then, the Cougars have handled their business, beating TCU, Cincinnati, and UCF by double digits. Along with the wins, BYU also fought off Penn State for the services of head coach Kalani Sitake.
Now the Cougars are hoping not to Crumbl in Dallas because if they can beat Texas Tech they are headed to the College Football Playoff.
While I’m not claiming the Texas Tech defense is as good as what I’ve seen from Ohio State, there’s no question the Red Raiders are top-five in the country. Only two teams have scored at least 20 points against the Texas Tech defense. Add in the pop Behren Morton and the Red Raider offense has and they certainly are a team nobody wants to face in the playoff.
I know BYU is a tough team, I just don’t think they are explosive enough on either side of the football to threaten Texas Tech here.
Texas Tech 35, BYU 17
SEC: No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) v. No. 9 Alabama – 4:00 p.m. ET – ABC
I know these two teams are really talented, I’m just not sure if they are truly any good.
Alabama had a stretch where they looked really good in the middle of the season, but lately they have been really underwhelming. Remember when Ryan Williams was supposed to challenge Jeremiah Smith as best receiver in the country? Now Williams isn’t even a top two receiver on his own team.
Georgia is just a really weird team to me. Gunner Stockton can at least say he has playoff experience after starting last year for an injured Carson Beck. The Bulldogs have some pieces on offense but how often do they put it all together?
Even last week against Georgia Tech they could only muster 16 points. I also have a feeling the defense is going to be exposed by some of the better offenses they’ll see in the playoff.
There are two reasons I’ll take Georgia here. The first is it is a revenge game for them after they lost in Athens to Alabama earlier in the season. The second is at least if Alabama loses then the Crimson Tide gets left out of the playoff for a second straight season.
Just imagine Kalen DeBoer’s hot seat if Alabama misses out on the playoff again! Just hook it to my veins.
Georgia 27, Alabama 21
B1G: No. 2 Indiana v. No. 1 Ohio State (-4.5) – 8:00 p.m. ET – FOX
Ohio State’s prize for snapping a four-game losing streak to Michigan last week is a trip to Indianapolis to take on another 12-0 team!
Even though there are a lot of pointless conference championship games with the expansion of the College Football Playoff, this one should actually be fun. The Buckeyes will be playing in their first Big Ten Championship Game since 2020, and a win would give them their sixth conference title game win.
Even with a loss, it’s hard to imagine Ohio State or Indiana not receiving a first round bye in the playoff just because they are the only two undefeated teams in the country, and honestly they are the two most complete teams in college football.
What makes this game so fun is it could go a long way in deciding the Heisman Trophy since the favorites are Julian Sayin and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. It’s entirely possible the quarterback with the better performance could end up being named the winner in New York City next Saturday.
As long as Ohio State doesn’t come out flat after such a big win last week, they should be able to win this game. Even though Indiana has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, Ohio State has just a little bit more. The x factor is going to be Matt Patricia, who has been putting together stellar game plans for his defense all year long. If there is a coordinator who could find a way to slow down Mendoza and the Indiana offense, it is Patricia.
This will be the closest game Ohio State has played since the season opener against Texas, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Indiana had a lead at some point in the second half. In the end, I think Julian Sayin is too calm under pressure to be flustered and the Ohio State offense will be a little too much with Bo Jackson and the running game finding their stride.
Ohio State 30, Indiana 20
Rapid Fire Championship Game Picks
C-USA: Kennesaw State (-2.5) v. Jacksonville State – Friday 7:00 p.m. ET – CBSSN
Kennesaw State 34, Jacksonville State 30
Sun Belt: Troy v. No. 25 James Madison (-23.5) – Friday 7:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
James Madison 41, Troy 21
MAC: Miami (OH) v. Western Michigan (-1.5) – 12:00 p.m. ET – ESPN
Western Michigan 24, Miami (OH) 17
ACC: Duke v. No. 17 Virginia (-3.5) – 8:00 p.m. ET – ABC
Virginia 33, Duke 24
