Who: Phoenix Suns (35-27) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (20-44)
When: 7:00pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center— Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Arizona’s Family 3TV, Arizona’s Family Sports, Suns+
Listen: KMVP 98.7
There is no time to wallow. No time to lick your wounds.
The Phoenix Suns dropped a game last night to the Chicago Bulls, and less than twenty-four hours later, they are back on the floor again. This time the opponent is the New Orleans Pelicans.
On paper, it feels like a matchup Phoenix should
handle. That thought probably sounds familiar, because the same thing was said before the Chicago game. The Suns walked into that one flat, unmotivated, and disconnected on the defensive end. That performance came against a team fully comfortable living in the tank. Yet the Suns could only muster 103 points. The taste of blood is still fresh in your mouth as you attempt to get back up off of the mat.
New Orleans presents a different kind of challenge on Friday night as they coem on on the second night of a back-to-back as well. They are coming in off of a victory against the Sacramento Kings.
Yes, the Pelicans bring a 20-44 record into the building. At first glance, that looks like another team drifting toward the lottery. The recent results tell a different story, however. They have won five of their last seven games, and they have zero incentive to lose. Why would they? Their first-round pick in this upcoming draft already belongs to the Atlanta Hawks, the price they paid to acquire Derik Queen. Losing games does not help them. Competing does. Evaluating talent does. Using the final stretch of the season as a launching pad toward next year does.
So when the Suns step on the floor tonight chasing win number 36, a total that would match last season, they will not find an easy path waiting for them. The team from the Big Easy is coming in with a purpose, and Phoenix already learned the hard way what happens when you assume the schedule will cooperate.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Dillon Brooks — OUT (Left Hand)
- Jordan Goodwin — OUT (Left Calf Strain)
- Royce O’Neale — QUESTIONABLE (Right Foot Soreness)
- Mark Williams — OUT (Left Foot)
Pelicans
- Clean
What to Watch For
How do the Suns stop the opposition at the rim?
That question kept coming up over and over during their loss to the Chicago Bulls. Chicago attacked the paint all night long. It felt like every drive found daylight. Granted, the Bulls bring a pair of unbelievably twitchy guards in Collin Sexton and Tre Jones. Both of them repeatedly beat Suns defenders off the dribble and forced the defense to collapse.
The Pelicans approach the paint in a different way. They do not rely on guard burst in the same fashion, although they still place enormous pressure on the interior. New Orleans attempts the fourth most two-point shots in the NBA. They are also eighth in offensive rebounds, pulling down 12.3 per game. Their offensive identity revolves around pressure near the rim. No team in the league takes more shots in the restricted area than the Pelicans. They average 34.8 attempts per game in that space. That number sits 3.8 attempts more serious than the second-place team.
That second-place team? The Chicago Bulls.
On the other end of the spectrum sit the Suns. Phoenix averages 19.8 attempts per game in the restricted area, the second-lowest mark in the league.
So the script tonight might feel familiar. The method of attack could look slightly different, although the destination remains the same. Chicago leaned on its guards to slice through the defense. New Orleans applies that pressure through size and physicality on the wings and inside. Zion Williamson averages 9.1 field goal attempts per game in the restricted area. Derik Queen sits at 4.7. Trey Murphy adds another 4.4.
They attack the interior with length, power, and volume.
Meanwhile, the Suns will likely lean into their own identity. Phoenix spreads the floor and fires away from deep. That is their offense, as they are 6th in NBA in three-point rate, attempting 45.1% of their shots from deep. Last year’s team was at 44.0%.
The question is whether their defense can survive the constant pressure waiting for them near the rim. Which leads me to…
Key to a Suns Win
The Suns are going to have to hit their three-pointers. Plain and simple.
When this team shoots well from deep, the math works in their favor. When the shots do not fall, the margin disappears quickly. It really is that straightforward. In games where Phoenix shoots under 35% from three point range, they are 9-17. In games where they clear that 35% mark, they are 26-10.
That number tells the story. The Suns live and die with the long ball, and nights like this one will likely follow that same script.
We will probably see a similar formula tonight, especially when you consider how much size the Pelicans bring to the interior. The Suns do not have many players who consistently penetrate and finish at the rim. That has been an issue throughout the season, and with more injuries piling up, it becomes even more noticeable.
Without reliable pressure at the rim, the offense continues to lean heavily on the three-point line. That is where the spacing comes from. That is where the scoring bursts arrive. So the math remains the same. If the Suns hit over 35% of their three-pointers, they put themselves in a position to win this game.
Prediction Time
I struggle with this one. The Suns have not looked good for a while now. We all know the reasons. Injuries, totations shifting, and players trying to rediscover rhythm. All of that exists. The reality remains the same: they have not looked good.
It does not seem to matter whether the offense runs through the number one option or the number two option. Some nights, they look unstoppable from beyond the arc. Other nights, the offense goes quiet and the game drifts into long scoring droughts. The inconsistency is real right now. This was a top ten three-point shooting team earlier in the season. They have slipped to fifteenth in the league. Maybe it is tired legs. Maybe it is rhythm. It certainly is not a lack of opportunity.
The Suns take the sixth-most wide-open three pointers in the NBA. Despite that, they rank fourteenth in converting those shots. The looks are there. The results have been uneven.
But I am going to lean toward a bounce back tonight. Grayson Allen does not go 5-of-16. Jalen Green does not go 1-of-8. Collin Gillespie does not go 1-of-5. The Suns hit around 37% of their threes, knock down 17 of them, and that ends up being enough to win the game.
Suns 112, Pelicans 107
