The Florida Gators (1-2) are heading south down to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes (3-0) in a 7:30pm primetime matchup. College GameDay is heading to Miami Gardens, FL as well as the jort wearing contingent called Gator Fans.
The Miami Hurricanes are the favorite to win the game per Bill Connelly, Las Vegas, and ESPN. ESPN has Miami as a 75.2% favorite in their matchup predictor.
The Doppler
The Hurricanes are the 10th best team in FBS per Bill Connelly’s SP+. Miami’s offense has returned to the no.1
position, the defense is 44th, and the kicking game is 12th. The Florida Gators are 30th overall, 47th on offense, 25th on defense and 13th in kicking.
On 3rd down Miami climbed to 27th in FBS. Miami has converted on 48% of their 3rd downs in ‘25. UF is 93rd on 3rd down, converting 35% of their attempts. The Gators are a perfect 100% on 4th down while Miami has converted on 67% of their 4th down tries.
Miami is currently 94th in FBS in penalty yards per game having been flagged for 60-yards per contest. The Gators are 122nd in FBS while having been flagged for 80-yards per game. Miami will need to ‘stay out of the muck’ with UF and avoid the dumb penalties the Gators are known for.
Florida is 126th in turnover margin per game. The Gators are -2.5 in TOMPG this season while Miami is 24th and +1 in ‘25. Carson Beck limited turnovers (although he did throw two INT’s in Week Three) compared to DJ Lagway’s turnover issues are the key ingredient.
Vernell Brown III has been explosive in the punt return game averaging over 18 yards per PR. The UF kicker, Trey Smack (yes), is only 6-of-9 on FG attempts. Miami kickers are perfect in 2025, Keelan Marion is averaging 28.5 yards per kick return, and the PR game is still meh.
The Film
I’m going to choose the LSU 20 – UF 10 game from Week Three because it was a strange game for both teams and the contest down in South Florida could be strange as well.
On money downs UF finished 7-of-18 while LSU was only 4-of-14, and yet, Florida lost. The Tigers were flagged for 68–yards while UF was flagged for 57-yards and yet the Gators lost.
Both squads made all of their kicks and nothing stood out drastically in the return game or otherwise on special teams.
The final doppler stat is what did the Gators in. Florida turned the ball over five times compared to LSU’s one turnover, and all five were picks from DJ Lagway including a pick 6 in a 13-10 ball game at the time.
FLORIDA OFFENSE
Lagway threw five picks and averaged only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and 2.1 yards per rush. He was sacked three times. Jaden Baugh averaged 4.6 yards per carry, and only two skills averaged double-digit yards per catch. Aiden Mizell caught their lone TD of the day.
Above– Against a screen the blitzer needs to continue to bring pressure. He’s coming too fast to slow down and retrace. The DL needs to feel screen and retrace. If you just became JJ Watt from one play to the next- it’s a screen!
Above– Two high safeties and attacking the hash or numbers is a bold move. It’s 4 over 2 to the left and 3 over 2 to the right. That’s time to run like hell for Lagway. Instead he throws a pick.
Above– Miami can get cute with pressures against UF like LSU did at times. Shooting Keionte Scott through the b-gap with Bain in a wide-9 could be fun for the defense.
Above– Lagway lacks ball placement on his intermediate throws which causes INT’s, dropped balls, and the receivers to have to stop their momentum and gain less yardage.
Above– Gotta give credit where it’s due, Lagway drops a DIME for the TD. No one can get this but his man and it’s a hard PBU attempt without DPI.
Above– RPO’s start to make defenders guess. This is a play-action but the now screen draws one DB, the ball fake draws the ILB up. Makes for some good spacing to drop intermediate balls in.
Above– The post is not there, the MOFC look from LSU should take that away. These are the reads I don’t understand from Lagway, this is year 2 as a major player in the offense. He can’t still make bad HS throws.
Above– LSU drops into typical zone drops in a 4-3 and Lagway throws the slant into the LB drop like he’s never seen a hook-curl zone before.
FLORIDA DEFENSE
The UF defense held Garrett Nussmeier to 8.1 yards per pass attempt with one TD and one INT. Caden Durham rushed for 6.2 yards per carry. Three Tigers skills hit double-digit yards per catch, with Beau Sharp hauling in a 65-yard long.
The Gators defense came away with zero sacks, three TFL’s and four PBU’s. Not a great day statistically but they did hold LSU to only 20 points.
Above– When the only LB that can check the QB’s run turns his back, it’s time to escape through the middle. Nussmeier does this and picks up a 1st down. Although I’d hope Beck would slider earlier and avoid the massive shot Nuss took.
Above– Part of Nuss’s game that reminds me of Beck is his quick release and processing. He has a p-fake and immediately fires the seam. This is the route you’d like to see Elija Lofton master but so far he ain’t the goods.
Above– The middle of the field is OPEN (MOFO) so it’s time to attack it. LSU hits a post-up and you can bang your head off the goal post vs. the UF defense. Y-Cross can turn up the field if needed and Malachi Toney seems like the WR to figure that out.
Above– When the OL turn their shoulders it’s time to shoot the gap. Unless the HB guy (no.10) is going to insert to block that guy like on Iso. He doesn’t insert as he’s the wrap guy for the QB in case he pulls, and the UF LB shoots the obvious gap for a TFL.
Above– Miami put their T-Formation on display vs. USF and Florida, even with 12 on the field, loses outside force on the run play. no. 44’s job is to kick the CB who never shows.
The Forecast
This summer in the Canyonero Keys I thought Florida would try to attack Miami through the air. They might, they might have to, but Lagway has thrown six INT’s and only five TD’s so far this year.
The three keys to beating UF are:
1- Scramble Drill. Miami has to work on the scramble drill this week and force Lagway into those bad throws vs. leaving him wide open WR’s. Florida has talent, they just need a coach to channel it and clearly that’s not Billy Napier.
2- Win the money downs. In ‘24 Miami dominated money downs, in ‘25 they’re improving after the USF game but the ‘Canes need to continue the uptick on 3rd down. UF beat LSU on money downs and still lost, but can you hope to rely on five picks in back-to-back weeks?
3- Stay out of the muck. Florida is penalized even more than Miami and with the amount of dirty play and trash talk expected Mario Cristobal’s squad has to live up to his ‘disciplined football’ tough talk. See it to believe it!
Prediction: Miami by 13. This summer I had Miami winning by three points but now I’m boosting that to 13. I don’t think UF will come out flat on Saturday night, but I do think they’ll quit at any sign of adversity now that their season is all but over.
