Two years ago, after consecutive 1-score losses to teams that would combine to win 22 games with one reaching the College Football Playoff final, Arizona went on a tear. The Wildcats won their final seven
games, securing just the fourth 10-win season in school history.
Could history be repeating itself?
Since falling in double overtime to BYU, which is in the hunt for a CFP playoff spot, and losing at Houston on a walkoff field goal, the UA has won three in a row. The latest win, 30-24 at then-No. 22 Cincinnati, led to the Wildcats (7-3, 4-3 Big 12) earning votes in the most recent AP poll.
Win out, including a bowl game, and Arizona will get to 10 victories for the fifth time. But for that to happen it has to take care of business Saturday morning against Baylor (5-5, 3-4) in the first game at recently renamed Casino del Sol Stadium.
Arizona and Baylor have only met once, in the 1992 Sun Bowl. The year before the Bears played in Tucson in the Copper Bowl.
Here’s what to watch for when the UA and BU battle before noon:
Senior sendoff
Arizona’s roster lists 27 plays as seniors, plus another 16 redshirt juniors who are in their fourth year of college and may be set to graduate next month or in the spring. That’s a lot of Wildcats who could be participating in pregame Senior Day ceremonies and/or playing their final home games.
That list runs the gamut from players who joined the program this offseason—roughly two dozen—to ones that have been at the UA since their college careers began. The transfer portal has altered the DNA of Senior Day, particularly for those who have already gone through such a ceremony at a previous school, but coach Brent Brennan said that doesn’t take away from their impact at Arizona.
“Whether they’ve been here for one year or been here for six years they’ve all made an important contribution to our program,” Brennan said. “Obviously some guys have played more than others, but everyone contributed in a meaningful way to get us to the place we’re at today.”
Defensive backs Dalton Johnson and Treydan Stukes will be playing their 47th and 51st games, respectively, for Arizona. Stukes debuted in 2020 during the COVID-shortened season and Johnson signed with the Wildcats a week after Kevin Sumlin was fired.
“I’m probably gonna be too dialed in, to be honest, because we’ve still got a game,” Johnson said when asked about playing his last home game. “But it’ll probably hit me afterwards, though, for sure, I’m sure when I see my mom after the game, no matter how the game goes.”
For tight end Sam Olson it will be the last home game he plays for Brennan, who has been his head coach since 2020 at San Jose State. Olson caught a 2-point pass that helped the Spartans beat Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game as a true freshman, one of 47 games he’s played for Brennan.
“There is a lot of history there,” Brennan said. “He’s always had a different level of maturity and super competitive. I really appreciate the fact that he chose to come and stay with us through all the ups and downs, whether that was at San Jose or here, he’s a special guy.”
Injury update
At least two players who started in the win at Cincinnati will be unavailable against Baylor, as offensive lineman Tristan Bounds and linebacker Myron Robinson are listed as out. Same goes for reserve cornerback Marquis Groves-Killebrew, who has missed the last two games.
Defensive lineman Tia Savea, who has started six games but was out for Cincinnati, is listed as doubtful while cornerback Jay’Vion Cole is questionable. Cole started the last three games but if he can’t go Michael Dansby figures to fill his spot after doing so most of last game.
Arizona had been fortunate to start the same offensive line in seven consecutive games, though in the past two it has seen a tackle (Ty Buchanan against Kansas, Bounds at Cincinnati) get hurt and not come back. Both times redshirt freshman Matthew Lado has stepped in and held his own.
Lado played 28 snaps against Kansas and 17 at Cincinnati, in both games grading well in pass blocking. He’s allowed three pressures in 99 snaps this season.
“Matt’s done a great job,” Brennan said. “I really believe in Coach (Josh) Oglesby and his ability to develop players. This is year six with Josh and I together with being a part of our staff. I’ve just watched him do that with a lot of different young men. He starts really doing a great job of building a really strong connection and the relationship with the player, which allows him to coach that player really hard, to be really demanding of that player in that player’s process of development. And he does a fantastic job with them, and Matt’s ready to play.”
Lado was one of the prep recruits who signed with the UA in December 2023 that stuck around after Jedd Fisch’s departure to Washington. His teammates from Apollo High School in Glendale, running back Adam Mohammed and O-lineman Michael Levelle Watkins, followed Fisch to Seattle though Watkins has since transferred to San Diego State.
A dangerous, desperate opponent
Based on Pro Football Focus’ grading system, Baylor is the 59th-best team in FBS. But in terms of their weapons the Bears might be the best 5-5 team in FBS.
Though it lost 55-28 at home to Utah last week, Baylor still put up 563 yards with 430 coming from quarterback Sawyer Anderson. He leads the nation in passing yards per game (321) and has thrown 29 touchdown passes thanks to no shortage of targets.
Four Bears have at least 36 catches and 520 yards including tight end Michael Trigg, who UA offensive coordinator Seth Doege recruited to USC and coached at Ole Miss. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound Trigg has 43 catches for 649 yards and six TDs.
“I felt like going into Cincinnati we were playing the best offense we had played all year,” Brennan said. “And then I get on the plane, after the Cincinnati game, and I’m watching Baylor play Utah. I’m like, holy smokes. These guys are impressive.”
UA defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales is likely to stick with his approach that calls for a lot of pressure up front and leaving his defensive backs on an island. That was the case against Cincinnati where Cole, Dansby and Ayden Garnes held the Bearcats to 154 yards through the air.
“Their technique was the best it was all year,” Gonzales said.
Baylor has to win one of its final two in order to be bowl eligible, and it must do so under a major cloud of chaos. Athletic director Mack Rhoades, who took a leave of absence last week, resigned on Thursday, while head coach Dave Aranda is on the hot seat.
That could mean the Bears or distracted, or they manage to stay super focused and drown out the noise.
“They’re going to show up with all kinds of urgency and intention,” Brennan said.
Souls at the Sol
The average attendance in six games this season as the venue formerly known as Arizona Stadium has been 42,044, though the actual number of people who have showed up each week has been significantly lower. Even if the first game as Casino del Sol Stadium were to sell out (50,800) the season average would be lowest since 2021.
The 2023 team that went 10-3 averaged more than 47,000 per game, with two sellouts including the home finale.
Arizona has had some bad weather luck, with the Weber State game delayed more than two hours and the Family Weekend clash with unbeaten BYU paused after one quarter for lightning. There have also been more day games than in any season in recent memory, which likely kept some people home who didn’t want to be out in the sun.
It’s the earliest start yet on Saturday, an 11 a.m. MT kickoff where the tailgating areas open at 5:30 a.m. That prompted Brennan on Monday to joke that “you can’t drink all day if you don’t start in the morning,” though on Thursday he showed up to his press conference with a Gatorade bottle to promote proper hydration.
And while it won’t be hot there’s rain in the forecast, providing the goalpost movers with plenty of excuses not to come.
The smallest crowd Arizona has had for a home finale that was not the Territorial Cup was 32,008 in 2021, the game after the Wildcats ended a 20-game losing streak in front of 30,677 on Homecoming.
