Northwestern’s regular season folded after a heartbreaking loss to Minnesota last Saturday, a failed attempt to avenge January’s home defeat. After that night, the Wildcats slotted to a 15th seed and will clash with 18th-seeded Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament.
Led by senior Nick Martinelli, who shepherded this ship as a Big Ten leading scorer while again breaking the program’s single-season scoring record (682), the ‘Cats stumbled through a frustrating campaign. Northwestern finished 13-18 overall
and 5-15 in Big Ten play, plagued by issues like clutch-game fumbles and shooting woes. The amount of confidence that remains for the postseason remains uncertain.
Despite a disappointing regular season, the team still has a chance to make serious noise on one of basketball’s biggest stages. Before the Big Ten Tournament tips off Tuesday, March 10, at the United Center in Chicago, here’s Northwestern’s tournament preview.
First Round Opponent: Penn State
Just like last year, Northwestern must start from zero in the first round and play on the tournament’s first day.
Earlier in January, Northwestern slaughtered Penn State 94-73 — the ‘Cats’ highest-scoring game during the conference slate this season. But in the Big Ten, there’s no reason to underestimate any opponent. We’ve seen Northwestern upset Indiana while being troubled by Oregon and dropping games to Rutgers. Though sitting in the conference’s last seat, the Nittany Lions secured their third and final conference victory with a 71-69 thrilling upset over Iowa.
Penn State is also a decent defensive team, ranking third in the Big Ten with 7.1 steals per game. On the offensive side, Northwestern must be aware of the same threats from last time: Kayden Mingo and Freddie Dillione V. The two highly-touted guards and Penn State’s leading scorers provide energy and athleticism. The ‘Cats also need to mark down two shooters, Eli Rice and Dominick Stewart, who combined for five three-pointers against Northwestern in the last meeting.
Since this is a winnable matchup, Northwestern simply needs to lean into what it does best: strong scoring from Martinelli and excellent ball movement without turnovers. However, anything is possible in March. To avoid an embarrassing upset by a lower-seeded opponent in the first round, the ‘Cats shouldn’t be conservative in attacking. Led by Martinelli in the frontcourt, Northwestern should target Penn State’s interior defense weakness.
Second Round Watch: Indiana
If there’s a probability of winning, why not dream bigger?
Last time, Northwestern stormed back in the second half to secure a victory at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Martinelli and Jake West combined for 44 points, while Arrinten Page came off the bench with 10 points and crucial defensive plays.
Simultaneously, Indiana is limping into the tournament, losing five of their last six games to close the season. Considering that trend, Northwestern may be more comfortable with clashing with the Hoosiers in the second round.
They certainly must replicate and improve on what they did last time against Indiana. Lamar Wilkerson remains a significant threat, ranking second in Big Ten scoring at 21.0 points per game behind only Martinelli. He also makes 3.3 three-pointers per game, second in the conference. Though he poured in 14 first-half points last time, he wilted with only four in the second half as Northwestern endeavored to curb his firepower.
Keys for Northwestern
What’s left on the table is the ‘Cats themselves: how can they make a run? To avoid clutch-game collapses, Northwestern probably needs to shoot better to secure wins more easily. With shooting woes lingering after the regular-season finale, is this the time to bring Max Green back? The sophomore hasn’t played a minute since Feb. 4 at Illinois.
Regarding rotation, what matters most is supporting Martinelli. After spending the entire season pondering rotations for maximum chemistry, Jayden Reid and Jake West should be the firm backcourt duo, though Reid’s inconsistency remains concerning. Tre Singleton should be cemented on the wing, who has started 28 of 31 games this season as a freshman. If no injury bothers before the first round, Page could return to the starting lineup as the team needs more strength in the paint.
Off the bench, Northwestern will rely on starter-caliber Angelo Ciaravino’s athleticism and Jordan Clayton’s three-point shooting spark. Clayton has made 11 triples in the last five games and shoots 39.4% for the season (the team’s second-best) while draining the second-most threes (28) on the team. Given that Chris Collins has heavily weighed on Tyler Kropp’s potential in the second half of the season, including starting 10 consecutive games, the Argentina international could be a solid replacement for Page.
The odds are there. The winning records from last time are there. But what matters most is whether the ‘Cats can be at their best on the biggest stage. Can Northwestern come out strong from the mud as one of the main characters of March Madness, or will they wrap the show with heads down behind others’ scenes of victory? We’ll find out in a week.
