The Buffalo Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a critical game for both teams. The Bills are in second place in the AFC East, and with the New England Patriots playing as well as anyone right now,
the Bills need a win to keep pace with their division rival. For the Bucs, a win would allow them to stay at least a half game ahead of the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South division lead.
This will be quarterback Josh Allen’s second start against Tampa Bay, as he was the starting quarterback in the 33-27 overtime loss to the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay team in 2021. However, Baker Mayfield was not with the Buccaneers in that matchup, which leads to a fun fact: Tampa Bay hasn’t started the same quarterback against the Bills in consecutive matchups between these infrequent opponents since Vinny Testaverde started in 1988 and in 1991.
Buffalo needs to take note of Tampa Bay’s top players, and they have plenty of them. Here are five Buccaneers to watch this weekend.
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QB Baker Mayfield
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft will face off against the No. 7 pick in that same draft, as Mayfield meets Josh Allen in what should be a display of excellent quarterback play. Mayfield, for his part, has been fantastic this season. He’s completed 64% of his passes for just over 2,100 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. Even without Mike Evans for much of the season and Chris Godwin for all of it, Mayfield has looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback. He’s not a runner like Allen or Lamar Jackson (the No. 32 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft), but he still has quite a bit of mobility.
Buffalo has struggled with mobile quarterbacks, and they’ve had some lost moments overall on defense. They’ll need to keep Mayfield in the pocket, pressure him up the middle, and make his life uncomfortable on Sunday. Otherwise, he will carve them up. Sending some A-gap pressures while maintaining outside rush lane integrity could do the trick.
[Insert Running Back Here]
Who is going to carry the football? Whether it’s been Rachaad White (325 rushing yards, 3.7 yards per carry), Bucky Irving (237 rushing yards, 3.3 yards per carry), or Syracuse alum Sean Tucker (129 rushing yards, 4 yards per carry), Tampa Bay’s rush offense has not been great. That could be a huge boost to a Buffalo defense prone to giving up big plays on the ground. Even with the struggles they’ve had, this Buffalo team is very good on defense when they can make their opponent one-dimensional.
The Bucs are No. 25 in rushing yards and No. 24 in yards per carry. Buffalo needs to keep that ground attack stuck in neutral, putting Mayfield in obvious passing downs and allowing the Bills’ pass rush to pin its ears back and go.
WR Emeka Egbuka
My biggest draft crush was the Ohio State wideout, and he’s made a huge impact right away in Tampa Bay. Without Godwin and Evans, Mayfield has targeted Egbuka frequently, and the rookie has delivered. Egbuka leads the Bucs in all major categories; he has 76 targets, 40 receptions, 677 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. That puts him on a 76/1,279/11 pace, which would be a wildly successful rookie season. Egbuka can operate from outside and from the slot. He runs a full route tree, attacking every level of the defense.
Will we see some rookie-on-rookie work with Maxwell Hairston covering his fellow 2025 first-rounder? With Christian Benford and Taron Johnson trending towards playing this week, it should at least be a healthier Bills secondary, so while Hairston may not need to shadow Egbuka like he did Jaylen Waddle last week, there are sure to be plenty of chances for the two to match up this week.
DT Vita Vea
Vea’s availability this weekend could go a long way towards determining Buffalo’s offensive success. The big space-eater is still a phenomenal run defender, but he’s been limited in practice thanks to a back issue. If he’s full-go, the Bills might want to test the outsides of Tampa’s defense, as a battle with the 347-pound behemoth in the middle isn’t something most teams want to do. If he’s limited, though, it will be a big blow to a stout Buccaneers run defense.
This feels like the perfect game for Buffalo to try and break tendencies early. Throw on first down more. Use Josh Allen outside the pocket on designed boots and RPOs. Do something to move that Tampa Bay defensive line around a bit, winding Vea for a late-game pounding on the ground with James Cook III.
S Tykee Smith
The second-year safety has been spectacular this season, having already made nine pass breakups, a team-high 74 tackles, two sacks, and one interception. Teaming him with Antoine Winfield Jr. has been a great move for head coach Todd Bowles and his defense.
Smith was a player some pundits saw as a good fit in Buffalo, but the Bills went with the better athlete in Cole Bishop. While Bishop’s 2024 season wasn’t as strong, he’s really started to come into his own of late.
This isn’t a watch because of buyer’s remorse on Bishop, but Smith really is a heck of a player. He can come down in run support just as easily as he can break up a pass forty yards downfield; he can blitz and sack Josh Allen just as readily as he can spy the big quarterback, as well.
Smith can do a variety of things, and with Buffalo missing tight end Dalton Kincaid, they’re going to need to create ways to put Smith in jeopardy in the passing game in order to hit anything solid over the middle.
