The Phillies are not playing baseball for the rest of the 2026 season. In some ways, you’re all free from whatever this season. In some ways, we are all just trapped in whatever they prepare to do for a 2027 season that only might happen.
Given the nature of this season, it feels right to ask a few big picture questions about where everything is going. Dave Dombrowski has been running the team since the 2020-21 off-season and has seen the team make the playoffs in each of the last five seasons. This
is the first of which both the regular season record and postseason results went backwards. It’s time to at least ask a few important questions.
Should the Phillies look at 2026 as just a down season or the beginning of a bigger trend?
The Phillies won 95 games in 2024 with the second-best record in the National League and followed that up with 96 wins and the second-best record in the NL again. While both seasons featured quick October exits, the Phillies were clearly at the top of National League World Series contenders given their regular season success.
2026 was a step back. They won eight fewer games than the previous season and backed into the Wild Card series as the sixth seed, needing to win game 162 to even make it. After losing in said Wild Card, it is clear the Phillies are as far from contending as they’ve been in a while.
With all of that said, the core of the roster in both years is basically the same. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are still the two best hitters. Trea Turner is still here. The rotation has the same core. Jhoan Duran is still the closer.
There are basically two competing ideas. One is that the core is aging. Kyle Schwarber is almost 34. Bryce Harper is almost 34. Trea Turner is 34. JT Realmuto is 35. Zack Wheeler is 36. Besides Wheeler and Harper, all of these guys regressed to different degrees. It could be very difficult to overcome.
The other, and the path easier to face, is that this season was just weird. They got off to a disastrous start and sometimes that happens. The manager got fired. Trea Turner just had a weird year. Same for JT Realmuto. Kyle Schwarber is still very good even if he regressed from 2025. Bryce went from first base to right field.
It is easy to overreact to one year and start making decisions that set them back further. It’s also easy to underreact and not look for significant changes. The Atlanta Braves won 76 games in 2025 and then bounced back with 94 wins this year thanks to a few smaller changes, some health, and bounce-back seasons from key players. Sometimes you just have a weird year.
Making significant roster changes to the core will also be extremely difficult. Almost every highly paid veteran on the Phillies roster carries trade protection, either because it’s in their contract or because of 10-5 rights.
Is just throwing money at the issue enough or do the problems run much deeper?
At minimum, the major league roster needs at least one new starting outfielder (let’s say it’s not Trea Turner for argument’s sake), a new third baseman, and multiple new left-handed relievers. One of those lineup upgrades probably needs to hit cleanup.
While Jesús Luzardo is getting a big raise with his extension and other’s will see smaller ones, there is some money. Since the Competitive Balance Tax existed, the penalties have reset after every new CBA agreement so let’s assume that happens again.
Maybe they throw a bunch of money at one of the aging outfielders. Maybe it’s Randy Arozarena, or maybe it’s Seiya Suzuki or Ian Happ. Maybe Bo Bichette opts out of his contract with the Mets (I wouldn’t count on it) and is a target. Maybe it’s someone else.
But does money solve this? It might help the 2027 roster but the problems just seem deeper.
Andrew Painter showed plenty of growth as a rookie but that wasn’t exactly the same for Justin Crawford. There were flashes of what it could look like but Crawford regressed hard every time. He still hits too many groundballs and struggles to play a consistent center field. Given that he had an 80 wRC+ on a .317 BABIP, it just seems like there is a long ways to go before he is any kind of capable starting outfielder.
The 2026 roster featured only six players above replacement level according to bWAR. That is troubling and might not be fixable in one offseason.
The farm system is in rough shape. Aidan Miller did not play until September but is playing in the Arizona Fall League. Gage Wood looks like a good pitching prospect but probably needs more time before being a major league contributor. Their best storyline was Bryan Rincon, who broke out with a power surge in the hitting-friendly environment of AA Reading (and a very juiced minor league baseball).
How impactful are the changes around the players supposed to be?
The Phillies will be looking for a new manager and with that will probably come a new coaching staff. The Phillies tried to hire Alex Cora in April after Rob Thomson was fired and it’s hard to imagine them not trying again this offseason. Given his reputation, it is natural to think Cora would bring in some coaches.
The biggest questions will be with Caleb Cotham and Kevin Long. Cotham’s responsibilities with the Phillies run deeper than just being the major league pitching coach. If the Phillies were to let him go, it’s easy to think they would have to backfill that with multiple hires. Given how tied he is to their minor league pitching development, he just seems safe even with a new manager.
Kevin Long is a different question. I obviously have no sourcing and it’s important to remember that Long signed a three year extension last offseason.
But with that said, it’s just harder to see him sticking around. The offense regressed from 9th in wRC+ in 2025 to 28th this past season. Trea Turner regressed hard. JT regressed hard. Brandon Marsh made the all-star team but was a disaster in the second half. The team only had 4 hitters with an OPS above 100 and two of them were Bryan De La Cruz and Derek Hill, clear bench players.
Given the results and an incoming manager, it just seems hard to picture Long remaining as the hitting coach moving forward.
With all of this, how impactful are these changes supposed to be? The core is likely to remain the same and there is only so much a manager, a hitting coach, and others can really change. What are the expectations going to be?
