Coming off a three-game road stretch, the New England Patriots return home to Gillette Stadium as owners of the No. 2 seed in the AFC and winners of four straight to improve to 5-2 on the year. In order
to keep their hot streak alive, they will need to fend off a talented but underperforming opponent on Sunday: the Cleveland Browns, who themselves have won just two of their seven games so far this season.
The Browns are a formidable opponent, particularly on defense. How do they stack up against the Patriots, though? Let’s go through the two team’s key areas to find out.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Browns pass defense: Cleveland’s pass defense has performed well this season, ranking eighth in expected points added per dropback (0.027) and net yards per attempt surrendered (5.6). They are the most formidable opponent Drake Maye and the Patriots passing game will have gone up against this year so far, and definitely have the means to slow New England down. That said, Maye is on an absolute heater at the moment while the entire unit is performing well when it comes to moving the ball through the air. Pass protection will be a concern against Myles Garrett and company, but the second-year quarterback has shown that he can operate muddy pockets at a high level as well. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Browns pass offense: After starting out with Joe Flacco as their quarterback, the Browns recently made the switch to third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel. Sunday’s game will mark Gabriel’s fourth career start, and it will come against a disruptive pass rush and talented pass defense. The Patriots naturally have an advantage in the matchup, but they cannot just trust on the young QB to make mistakes; they need to force him into errant throws and difficult decisions while also making sure his favorite targets — Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr. — are taken care of. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Browns run defense: The Patriots’ run game had its best performance of the season last Sunday in Tennessee, but the Titans and Browns are two entirely different kettle of fish. Whereas the former entered the game against the Patriots ranked 21st in yards per attempt (4.5) and 24th in EPA per run (-0.039), the latter are first (3.3) and second (-0.214) in the respective categories through seven games. Whether or not New England has indeed turned the corner in the ground game will be seen on Sunday, but until they show consistent success against a quality opponent like Cleveland it is still hard to pick them in a head-to-head matchup. | Edge: Browns
Patriots run defense vs. Browns rushing offense: Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins has performed admirably as the Browns’ lead back and offensive focal point, ranking 11th in the league in rushing yards (467) and ninth in EPA per run (0.04). Running behind a physical and experienced offensive line, the Ohio State product is capable of presenting problems on the ground for New England. The Patriots are no slouches either, though: their run defense is ranked third in the NFL in both yards per attempt (3.4) and EPA per play (-0.200). This should be a good battle, with New England having a slight edge based on season-long consistency. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Patriots and Browns are fairly equal in terms of special teams performance so far. Whereas the home team has a slight advantage in its return capabilities — Marcus Jones is again playing at an All-Pro level at punt returner while Efton Chism has looked solid running back kicks — the visitors have been less inconsistent in coverage thus far, particularly versus punts (although both teams have given up touchdowns). As for the kicking part itself, New England’s crew has a slight statistical edge compared to its Cleveland counterpart. The fight for hidden yards will be competitive, with the overall body of work this season favoring the Patriots. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
Coaching-wise, Sunday’s game will be a matchup of experience-on-experience, experience-on-experience, and youth-on-youth. The first two battles feature head coaches Mike Vrabel and Kevin Stefanski as well as offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz; based on this season so far, New England is looking good in both battles. The third battle sees first-year Patriots acting DC Zack Kuhr go up against first-year Browns OC Tommy Rees. Theirs might be the deciding clash, although available talent favors Kuhr’s side. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
As noted above, the Browns are a formidable opponent despite their overall disappointing record this season. That said, even though they should be competitive in several areas and have a clear edge in one of them — their run defense versus New England’s ground game — the Patriots have simply performed better on the whole in 2025. Will they live up to their status as touchdown favorites? That remains to be seen, but if we had to choose we would pick the home team to extend its win streak to five in a row.
